My analysis of Race #1 FVP 1600m 12 runners. (Posts with tabs are fiendishly difficult to render 100% in an online forum post environment. I tried inserting the table parameters but could not get it to work, so I have attached my personal file.)
Race 1 13h10 MP 1600m 12 runners
# RUNNER CALC/O ACT/O INV/O +/- HORSE ANALYSIS
PRINCIPAL
#5 3-1 15-10 -ve 31 days. Ex-KEN. Last two moderate 1800-2000m no extra but prior 1.70-4.80LBW. Some kind of chance here.
#1 4-1 7-1 3pts 32 days. Last after 5 months rest, 4th 2.75LBW. Prior 4.25-6.75LBWs 1600-1900m. 2SAL. MAR18 2000m early toe, leading with 400m to go. CD 1-0100. Some kind of chance. 2SAL AV.
#6 4-1 6-1 2pts 46 days. Last two over 1200m-1300m thereabouts 3.80LBWs but prior three races 4ths 0.80-3.55LBWs.
If handles distance big runner. Smith/Yeni combo. Change of trainer.
SECONDARY
#7 6-1 8-1 2pts 27 days. Moderate ex-KEN best a 6th 4.75LBW 1400m. That translates into many lengths at weaker centre. Might be
a little better than the odds I've calculated.
#12 8-1 18-1 10pts 65 days. Ex-GRY. Penultimate promising 3rd 3.50LBW 2000m staying on but after 60 day rest FRV debut, 1200m 10LBW sharpener.
#2 8-1 10-1 2pts 25 days. 6yo 44-0749. Last late progress 4th 5.70 track, trip. And of last six 1.80-4.60 1000-1300m.
#3 8-1 7/1 0 25 days. Very poor ex KEN/TFI last best 3rd 5.60LBW 1600m stubborn no extra. CD 1-0010. Might be worth 8-1
SHOCK
#8 15-1 15-1 0 25 days. Lightly-raced, debut promising 5th 1.10LBW 1200m but next two nowhere, 1200,1600m. Last a 1600m 8.75LBW lacking finish.
COMMENTS
None of these inspire confidence as world-beaters. #5 is probably a deserved favorite as an ex-KEN with form. Does not seem to have any flaws or anti-value propositions. Rest period is about right, ex-Snaith, higher center, has placed over the distance. If this one does not win, then one of several have a chance. The #12 offers the best investment opportunity potential as an ex-GRY who ran unplaced over a sprint distance last run, its debut at FRV (a sharpener?) but did run 3rd over a 2000m running 2.8LB with 400m to go. So I wouldn't say the favorite #5 is vulnerable and should win but the #12 (as the runner giving me the biggest discrepancy* between my calculated odds and the actual odds i.e. 10 betting points) is my EW bet, with swingers, exacta with the favorite #5.
*Betting philosophy dictates that continued backing of horses at odds higher than their calculated value - whatever reliable method the punter employs to calculate such a value - results in a profit over time.
KEY:
CALC/O = calculated odds (my own assessment of what the odds should be)
ACT/O = actual odds
INV/O = investment opportunity (difference between my calculated odds and the actual odds)
DISCLAIMER
This information is my personal assessment of Race#1 FVP and in no manner constitutes a recommendation to bet or gamble of any sort. Any losses incurred based on information contained in this post is entirely at the volition of the person reading this information.
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