Do It Again 125, Soqrat 124..Press Release

From the NHA website nhra.co.za/index.php/press-release

FINAL MERIT RATING ANALYSIS – KENILWORTH RACECOURSE - SATURDAY 5 JANUARY 2019 – GRADE 1’s

L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate (WFA) Grade 1 – Race 7

Following a comprehensive discussion between the NHA Handicapping panel consisting of Messrs Lennon Maharaj, Matthew Lips and Vee Moodley, DO IT AGAIN has seen his Merit Rating increased from 120 to 125, in the wake of his victory in an exceptional renewal of the Grade 1 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate at Kenilworth on Saturday. The 2018 Vodacom Durban July winner showed both his versatility and his class when collaring sole three-year-old SOQRAT in the shadows of the post to land what was widely billed as one of the highest average MR Group 1 and the Handicappers are perfectly satisfied that the four-year-old is worthy of his new status as the highest rated horse in South Africa.

The Handicappers assessed the Queen’s Plate on the basis that LEGAL EAGLE and UNDERCOVER AGENT confirmed exactly their form out of the Green Point Stakes, and that UNDERCOVER AGENT and SNOWDANCE almost exactly replicated their form out of the Rising Sun Gold Challenge which was run at Greyville last June.

There is every reason to believe that DO IT AGAIN could have improved five pounds on what he showed when beaten a short head by LEGAL EAGLE in the four-way photo finish to the Green Point Stakes. DO IT AGAIN was making his seasonal debut on that occasion, having not raced since winning the Vodacom Durban July, whereas all three of those around him had run (and won) at least once in the current season. There seems no doubt that DO IT AGAIN stepped up on his Green Point Stakes performance to win the Queen’s Plate against arguably the best field of milers assembled for a race in South Africa in many years.

As a result of the Queen’s Plate, SOQRAT’s rating has been increased to 124. The Cape Guineas winner came into the Queen’s Plate previously unbeaten from two starts over 1600m – both of them at Grade 1 level. The runner-up out of the Cape Guineas, TWIST OF FATE, easily won the Grade 3 BMW Politician Stakes on Queen’s Plate day to also underline the strength of the Guineas form. SOQRAT is a progressive three-year-old who looks full value for his 124 rating after only losing the Queen’s Plate in the dying strides.

RAINBOW BRIDGE also appears to have stepped up considerably on his Green Point Stakes run and his rating has been increased to 119. In the Queen’s Plate he met DO IT AGAIN, LEGAL EAGLE and UNDERCOVER AGENT on 2 kgs worse terms than in the Green Point, yet was able to reverse form with two of them easily. There is every reason to believe that RAINBOW BRIDGE performed better in the Queen’s Plate than in the Green Point, where he ran to 116 despite appearing unsuited to the slow early pace and generally not having a great deal go his way. A mark of 119 for him looks perfectly reasonable and confirms his place as a progressive and highly capable emerging force on the scene.

Other changes following from the Queen’s Plate are LEGAL EAGLE dropping from 123 to 121, HAT PUNTANO drops from 112 to 109, and INFAMOUS FOX’S rating has been cut from 103 to 101. These drops are more indicative of the two horses’ deteriorating form in recent starts and are not directly linked to their performances in the Queen’s Plate, where HAT PUNTANO was the subject of a veterinary check after his Jockey reported that he felt something amiss with the Argentine-bred import.

Cartier Paddock Stakes (WFA) (Grade 1) – Race 6

There were fewer significant rating changes following the day’s other Grade 1 race, the Cartier Paddock Stakes for fillies and mares over 1800m. The Handicappers feel confident that the highly consistent 3rd placed CASCAPEDIA is the correct line horse for the race and accordingly have rated the race to a level of 118. However, the winner OH SUSANNA’S rating remains unchanged on 121. Runner-up LADY IN BLACK’S rating has been upped from 108 to 117, while 4th placed FRESNAYE goes up from 104 to 110 and 5th placed SECOND REQUEST has seen her rating raised from 101 to 104. SECRET REQUEST ran to a rating of 108 and was effectively given a half way increase.

The rating of the runners that were reduced were HASHTAGYOLO (from 104 to 101) and ELUSIVE HEART, who drops to 100 from 103. The balance of the field remains unchanged.

Ok ..... my sums must be not that great .... but if Legal Eagle ran to 121 and he got beat by Do It Again by 4 lengths at level weights over 1600, does it not follow that DiA should then be 121 + 8 = 129 which surely seems too high ?

I have them as follows:

Do It Again - 122 (had him at 117 after the GP)
Soqrat - 119 (113 in the Guineas)
Rainbow Bridge - 116 (113 in the GP)
Legal Eagle - 114 (117 in the GP)
Undercover Agent - 114 (117 in the GP)
Snowdance - 107 (111 in the Garden Province)

Comments:
Age now finally catching up to the Eagle ?
Soqrat the best 3 yr-old in the country (over a mile)
Snowdance - enforced my opinion that the 1600 into the headwind against top class males, was a bridge too far

Regarding the Paddock Stakes, imo it is a mistake to assume that both Lady in Black and Fresnaye ran that much above their ratings - for me I think Cascapedia ran below her form around this turn - so I have them as follows:

Oh Susanna - 109 (for me she ran consistently to around this mark even in the MET last year)
Lady in Black - 108 (also 108 before the race)
Cascapedia - 103 (110 before)
Fresnaye - 102 (104 before)
Second Request - 100 (101 before)
Brave Move - 99 (107 before)
Sylvan on Fire - 99 (98 before)
Safe Harbour - 99 (97 before)

To push Lady on Black to 117 (and Fresnaye to 110) would mean that both Sylvan on Fire and Safe Harbour ran quite some way above their ratings, so imo not correct ....

Frodo, you are an excellent judge of ratings IMO. That's exactly the rough picture I have in my mind of the ability of those horses.

Queens Plate. When looking at this result, I think that there are two possible scenarios. The first is the one that has been adopted by the NHRA handicappers- that Undercover Agent and Snowdance ran to their ratings and hence the top three go up as set out in their statement. Legal Eagle ran a few pounds below form. The alternative is that the winner ran to his 120 and the 4th, 5th and6th all ran well below best. While in my view our ratings are all a bit inflated compared to international levels, on balance I think that the approach they have taken is correct.

Paddock Stakes is pretty straightforward although I doubt that Cascapedia quite ran up to her 110, and Oh Susanna did not need to run to her 121. The shape is right but probably the placed horses are now a couple of points too high.

The Peninsula winner probably has scope to progress quite a bit above his 104 earned here, but with Eyes Wide Open running a dismal race, and the third and fourth being quite moderate, it is hence impossible to put the first two up any higher than the 104 and 107 given.

Politician Stakes. This is where the official handicapper is well and truly handcuffed. The rule is that the maximum raise in a Gr 3 is 10 points for a winner, and 5 and 3 for the second and third respectively. If Twist of Fate ran to his 115, which seems very likely given that he had a huge weight to shoulder in what looked like a true run race, then by my reckoning, all of Senatla, Belgarion,, Sailing Lizard and Herodotus ran to 96/97 and are thus now all officially rated well below their true ability by +- 10 points.
If any of the top six ( except Twist of Fate) were to run in an ordinary handicap, they are penalty kicks.

Bernard riding Oh Susanna in the MET

Just some further thoughts on the Politician; like PeterD says, it could be that many of those that run behind Twist of Fate, is now under-rated - however for me I'd like to see them prove that (which is probably unlikely as many of those head straight into the Derby)

For me it is not unlikely that Tof just did enough to win and therefor ran abt 10 points below his rating which would mean runners like Senatla, Belgarion and Heredotus ran pretty much to their ratings.

Interesting entry for the Derby imo is the filly Second Request - she ran to abt 100/101 in the Paddock (or even higher if you believe Lady in Black ran to 117 - which I don't); if Twist of Fate comes out of the Derby (quite likely as I believe he will be going for the Sales Race over 1600), it would make Second Request best rated in the Derby (and receiving 2.5 kgs from the males) - currently trading at 40/1 :ohmy: :huh: I know she is also an entry in the Majorca, but there she would probably have to take on Front and Centre and the older fillies like Fresnaye (who beat her on the weekend) - so I know which race I'd be gunning for if I had the choice

Bob Brogan wrote: Bernard riding Oh Susanna in the MET

Marcus riding Rainbow Bridge

Will they scratch Eagle, i must say surprised Anton not sticking with the champ but I guess that the Met was never going to be the right race for the Eagle