Turffontein 19/10/19

Discuss below

r2 very interesting race where apparantly this is 99 for 3yr oldd how this is a 99 im not quite sure so not quite confident here put 2 horses just add 7 my ew horse seven seas i really dont trust this race

r3 - race 3 another tricky race where no confidence tallin looks strong but dont know if you want to take a filly against the boys here worth including a few fancy big outsider here
land of the brave no 7
all of 7.5.2.6.10

r4 - ex n ohs clear first selection but my play will be Burindi now at 40-1 please put this horse in your exotics. i was going to say have a full go on tombola but scratched tombola ran 4.55l behind agelic appeal. burindi beat angelic appeal and exs n ohs only 1kg swing around 40-1

r5 - d arivee beat russian beat easily only concern comes off a bit of a break here silver spectrum still improvement to come merits respect

r6 - another open looking contest where again big outsider in cahoots needed last run but ran 6l off van halen at level weights now carries 53.5kg. state trooper most likely favorite ran 5.65l off van halen at level weights now carries 55.5kg

r7 image award 6kg weight turn around with double o eight for 3l so soul of wit who ran infront of image award on wisteria walk formline twelve oaks is many kg better off than soul of wit on there run so will be my narrow selection three stars also well in at the weights with double o eight so quite an open looking contest.

r8 - well this is a carryover card gambling here with at 1st i was happy to go 7 9 11 then have a look at kimberly green beat exs n ohs by almost 2l who is my 1st selection in a 76mr earlier and this is also a 76...then you get margots magic who ran 2l to mount laural who run in r2 in a 99 devision. a case can be made for virtuosa who has strong maiden formlines so all of these need to go in...

r9 - well where to start battle creek is in top form but if you look this horse lost to rebel renegade by 3.45l so if renegad is fit i think it will be no race brightnumberten beat renegade by.1l butv3kg worse off

i think its safe to say 1% of a p6 ticket looks nice here PLEASE NOTE

i have just given some horses worth including in exotics other horses still need to be added on your own personal studying my advice will be to take small place bets on a few outsiders qtets will pay every race all exotics will pay lets hope FRODO and CHICKEN n CHIPS can give us a banker ot there thaughts

1) 8 Christopher Robin e/w

8 Handicaps and a Maiden today - I agree with bopp26 - big dividends in the offing; thoughts:

R1: Pure State heavily supported in the market, but also a nibble it seems for Blue Spark, who looks much better value.

R2: Small field starting the BP; Risk Taker holds Flying High on previous form, but RT is coming off a break, so it could get close between the two; Mount Laurel looks to have bright future, has been given 8 points by the handicapper, but still look handily weighted and can;t be ignored. Wild Date my prefer further imo

R3: Competitive start to the PA; Tallin won her first two pretty cosily, but imo faces stronger here - still can't be ignored; Steak and Ale improving - tricky draw as is the case with Ballan D'Or (who gets 4.5 kgs from S&A) - both need to be considered; Stormy WInter has the advantage of a good draw, while Land of The Brave can upset with Mr Hugo, who could boost the trifecta and quartet dividend

R4: Very tough start and most of these look to have some sort of chance; Targaryen Queen from a good draw the value pick imo

R5: Another competitive event; Owlinthetree has beaten Green Haze most times, so hard to me to see why GH should be shorter in the betting; value imo could be Lumber Jackeroo, but the Tarry coupling have obvious chances as well; D'Arrivee holds Russian Beat on form, but looking at the betting, may need the run

R6: Not getting any easier, La Bella Mia has a tricky draw but should still be right there at the business end; WInter Storm also has to contend with a wide draw, but should be coming at them at the end; Pool Party and Splendid Garden from pole position could upset

R7: One has to take a chance somewhere, and for me the best value on the card comes up in the form of Twelve Oaks; well in here with the 4 kg allowance with a good apprentice riding; good draw, twice a winner this track and trip - what more can one ask for ?

R8: Apprentice Dicken could easily complete a double here with Clockstopper; at the weights I can't see why Impressive Duchess is shorter in the betting; I have been preaching Way of the World the last two times she ran; imo rated the biggest danger to Clockstopper - also gets the 4 kgs off and blinkers have been removed an a tongue-tie fitted - found some support in the market, so watch out

R9: Very tough race to close; Tokolosh has the advantage of pole position and is my first choice from the consistent Battle Creek and Basilica Santo, who despite a tricky draw has a very good place chance imo

Enjoy

WSB seems down ?

BEND THE KNEE (E/W)

Was concerned about the widish draw...but moves into gate 7 with the scratching

First 2runs were over the sprints

25 lengths off the winner on debut run
Second start 6.23lengths off the winner (Jmpd out-steady prog)

Almost 18lengths improvement in second start

Step up in trip...should be finishing strongly

WILD DATE (WIN)

6/1

Nice breeding

Drawn 2
Won maiden over the 1600m losing 1 length but winning easily

Drop in trip and a handy mass of 54kgs

@bopp26 - very good pick with Seven Seas R6 odd a place

Steak and ale win

STORMY WINTER (WIN)

Handy shifted-fought when winning maiden

Won over the vaal 1450m

Today over the TFI 1450m

If goes to the front to set pace,shorter straight will assist

OCEANIA (E/W)

15/1

HAS WON OVER DISTANCE

Last 3 runs a win and a place

Last run was over the 1450 TFI FM 76
I Remember the pace was way off

She finished in 6th place 2.75lengths off the winner (Making steady progress)

With the step up in trip same,carrying the same weight and drawn well

Closer to the pace,can win