Re:The Met 2020

Final fields for all the races can be seen on the SA Horse Racing site.

Striker and Head Honcho could be the dark horse if allowed to control the race from the front

Moore on 4 or 5 on Met day, not sure they are stable 1st or 3rd strings

Rainbow Bridge my fancy for the Met .Gavin rode well.I don't really see the need for jockey change best to stick with the known...make me think of Abishiri

Is Ryan Moore’s strike rate slipping?




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Draw not been kind to the top two in the betting

THE SUN MET (Grade 1)

1 11 Do It Again 60 136 A R Fourie Justin Snaith
2 5 Rainbow Bridge 60 134 A R Moore Eric Sands
3 9 Vardy 60 134 A C Zackey Adam Marcus
4 12 Hawwaam 60 131 AM A Marcus Mike de Kock
5 13 One World 60 130 A M Byleveld Vaughan Marshall
6 3 Twist Of Fate 60 129 A A Domeyer Adam Marcus
7 4 Head Honcho 60 126 T A P Strydom Andre Nel
8 6 Undercover Agent 60 124 A C Orffer Brett Crawford
9 2 Bunker Hunt 60 122 A B Fayd'Herbe Justin Snaith
10 1 Eyes Wide Open 60 118 BA W Kennedy Glen Kotzen
11 10 Pack Leader 60 116 A M Winnaar Glen Kotzen
12 8 Roy Had Enough (AUS) 60 115 A S Veale Frank Robinson
13 14 Majestic Mozart 60 107 T A K de Melo Candice Bass-Robinson
14 7 More Magic 60 102 A G Cheyne Candice Bass-Robinson

Strydom will decide the fate of many horses in the field if he leads and bunches them up - Purely on draws I make Twist Of Fate an e/w chance as Aldo knows all about Head Honcho

Betting for the full card is out.

The factors to consider in finding the Met winner are
1. Ability
2. Distance Suitability
3. Preparation and current form
4. Pace

Ability
All of Hawwaam, Do it Again, Rainbow Bridge, Vardy,, One World, Twist of Fate and maybe Head Honcho are good enough on their day at level weights. On his 3yo form, Eyes Wide Open, and perhaps a horse like Bunker Hunt could still have enough improvement in him.
With Hawwaam one has to be concerned about his temperament and hence I will never back him at a short price because too much can go wrong irrespective of how good he is.
Distance
Hawwaam and Rainbow Bridge in my view are better 2000m than a mile. Do it Again is versatile, and we know he gets the trip. One World in my view is a specialist miler and won’t get the trip in this class. Vardy beat One World and little else in the Winter Classic over 1800m, so is unproven over a hard run 2000m. Var is a source of speed. Even the great miler Variety Club got klapped by the likes of Jackson over 2000m. The dam Cupid, is by Jet Master out of a Badger Land mare, and thus there is some stamina in the pedigree, but neither the dam nor second dam won further than a mile. Both his wins in the Green Point and the Queens Plate have been full of merit against the best milers around, and he came from behind in relatively slow run races, and his turn of foot was decisive. Top milers can , and have, win the Met, but I have doubts about Vardy this trip.
The rest of those mentioned want 2000m
Prep and form
Do it Again has had a poor prep and at this level that is a concern.
Vardy is clearly the form horse. Rainbow Bridge has been a model of consistency and seems to be peaking at the right time. Head Honcho is lightly raced but has had a similar program to last year when running a cracker. One World and Twist of Fate have been very consistent. Hawwaam seems on track despite a poor run in the Queens Plate.
Pace
It is not clear that there is anything in the race that will want to set a good pace. A false run race will favour Vardy despite my view that he may be suspect this trip.
Conclusion
If there is a solid pace, then I like Rainbow Bridge to win with Hawwaam the obvious danger if he behaves. Twist of Fate should be in the first 4.
Exotics these three plus Vardy and Do it Again.

vardy is clearly stable elect....so wherever Twist of Fate is... Vardy will be in front of him....that's just the feeling I get

PeeKay wrote: vardy is clearly stable elect....so wherever Twist of Fate is... Vardy will be in front of him....that's just the feeling I get

Also think this is the right one. Has had the best uninterrupted, excuse free prep. They manner in which he won the LQP, suggests he will see out the 2000m, especially if the race is run at a moderate pace. Beaten most of them before, can certainly do it again.