Will Vardy stay the MET trip?

I see there are winds forecast for Saturday

If it`s a headwind VARDY x VAR might struggle to get hame!

Thoughts?

....milers win Mets.....only when they crawl...a brisk pace and a headwind....dont think so....but who knows.....not a pure punters type of race....too much scheming and tactics....will decide only when they load....another repeat of the LQP start .....and I will do my mind again....:oops:

He will absolutely stay the trip. This horse will win.

If there is a headwind , Vardy may as well stay in the stable

I have seen many milers win going away over 1600m but patently fail to see out the 2000m. Legal Eagle being one of the more obvious recent examples. Variety Club being another, more relevant example, as he was a VAR horse.
I would be interested to see a list of VAR horses that have won over 2000m at this level.
Looking for answers in history does not really help either as the race only recently changed to a WFA event.
If I were a bookmaker I would have Vardy as my worst result.
Happy to eat humble pie on Saturday evening if Vardy wins as there is no point in following racing if you don't have an opinion!
A wise old racing man once told me - If you rubbish every horse that you are asked about you are going to be right 95% of the time...........

If Vardy, or any other horse, runs say less than 2.5l behind the winner, does that mean that that horse does not stay 2000m?


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Some really good posts on the various threads related to Saturday's meeting.

I think the race will be decided as a result of the pace, or lack thereof. There doesn't appear to be a sacrificial lamb entered to ensure a pace of breakneck speed and will fall away with about 400m to go. I see Head Honcho as the likely pace setter as he did last year, but at a steady pace rather than pillar to post tactics.

Headwind on the day, this is a 50/50 gamble in my opinion. Assuming Head Honcho sets the early pace, Striker could try and put daylight between himself and the rest with a strong tailwind down the back straight, build up a big enough lead going into the home straight, and hold on. At this level, one would expect the other jockeys to be alert to this sort of tactics, and not allow the leader to get away, or so we hope.

I truly believe, pace or no pace, head wind or not, Vardy runs from off them, will have all the cover he needs, and Zackey will want to keep the powder dry for the right moment as he has done in his last three starts.

If the stable didn't believe he will stay the 2000m, I don't think they would have entered him.

This MET is primed for an upset. Too many variables here for the top horses.

Jock changes, Temperaments, Distance...

Similar to the year when Martial Eagle won.

Go with the tried and tested - Champion Jock Kennedy for the upset.

If there is a strong South Easter the field may well move towards the outside of the track in the home straight, perhaps forcing those from coming off the pace to go inwards. As Vardy tends to hang towards the inside in any case, this may not be a bad thing for him. I have no doubt he will see out the trip BUT whether he is at his very best over 2000m remains to be seen.