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Discussing MERCURANA winning the Kenilworth Cup and the true value of the MR System

Will post the replay tonight if that helps

MR useless in my opinion. Very general guide value only .... like barrier position, stable form etc.

There are far too few races over these sort of trips, so mostly dealing with ratings that have been earned over shorter trips. The second problem is pace- we STILL don’t have proper sectional timing, but many of our distance races are not run at a true pace. Ratings only work properly in true run races and where the ratings have been earned over the correct trip.
Nothing wanted to go to the front and Cedar Man returning from a very long rest was the reluctant leader at what looked a pedestrian pace until Dynasty’s Blossom, which is a proven stayer took it up at the half way mark.
The winner was going this trip for the first time and although under sufferance is bred to stay all day. The betting was a bit of a joke- Tap o Noth unproven over the trip and top weight was a false favorite. Swift Surprise was my pick as he was 5kg better off with Strathdon which was the class proven stayer, for just a 3 length beating last time. If you watch the replay he inexplicably loses his position at a crucial stage in the straight and then comes back again strongly. On the ratings (as per Sporting Post) he was best weighted, and I think with a bit more luck or a better ride would have won.
So, while the winner was a surprise, this race result is explainable by pace and distance, and does not support an argument that the ratings are a problem.
That said, I am fully aware of the myriad of problems with our ratings, and while they are useful 80% of the time they have to be used with care.

Magi wrote: MR useless in my opinion. Very general guide value only .... like barrier position, stable form etc.

Well, the handicapper must be over the moon with that result.


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What will be interesting will be what the handicappers decide to do
The 2 horses heavily under sufferance the winner and fourth horse
ran way over their MR
Or did the others run way below their MR
Run the race again in 2weeks time on the same conditions and see the result

That's the type of interesting sales promotion racing needs !!!

Mac wrote:

Magi wrote: MR useless in my opinion. Very general guide value only .... like barrier position, stable form etc.

Well, the handicapper must be over the moon with that result.


I was over the moon Mac....... got part of the P6......... NEVER LEAVE OUT Race 7 # 7 ....... kaching

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On Saturday the first race in Saudi Arabia, International Group 1 winner, Deirdre, got beaten by a horse merit rated 86, Port Lions.