July Preview from a Mug Punters Perspective:
Race 1:
Singforafa is as speedy as they come. Only being touched off by 0.1L in the Scottsville Group 1 the other day. That being over 1200m, now with the slight drop to the 1100, should be able to find the post in time. She will no doubt be heading upfront setting her own fractions and playing catch me if you can. The tight and quick Polytrack should suit ideally.
Chimuchiri Run is the talking horse, and will most likely be the first leg of most punters multiples. Being the best weighted horse, with an incredible record, one can argue he has the top selection beat on paper(Especially if one looks at collateral form of the Computerform Sprint.My only concern is the draw of 9, which will be a little tricky, and in a race of speed, it would seem that Gavin would have to tuck him in at the start. He will no doubt be charging home best of all, but may find it just a little bit too late being the 1100m trying to catch the top selection.
Sunset Eyes has an unbeaten record of 3/3 on the Poly, along with a c/d win. One cannot rule out this old timer who has a devastating turn of foot on the poly, where all runs have seen a 400 to finish in the low 22s.
Van Halen comes in as the second best weighted horse, and another Group 1 winner. Won a 1200m on July day last year on the poly, and should have no issues finding the top 4 in this contest. A smart record of 2 wins and a 2nd from 4 tries over the trip, should be right there.
Race 2:
Winter Stories comes off a cracking effort behind Mount Pleasant in a feature on the highveld. For me, i consider Mount Pleasant to be the best juvenile in the country we have seen thus far and would be an absolute racing certainty in the Group 2 colts race later on if running. Having third run after a rest and gelding he is just too over priced at 10/1 here.
Vernichey will be the obvious selection here for many, and rightfully so. Has done everything thats been asked of thus far and has not disappointed. My concern here is the horrid draw of 14 to contend with. No doubt an extremely smart individual, having first run on the greyville grass as a 2yo, with that draw to contend with, odds just seem too skinny at 14/10. Having 13 horses inside her, that most will no doubt be running around and green around the bend, if she's caught wide that could be her chances gone. She has shown she hangs quite badly inwards in both her last two outings, and i do not feel this will go well for her if Warren has to go down the outside rail due to the draw. I fear she will be doing the same again and will have a wall of horses to hang into rather than the inside rail, which will cost her the race not running in a straight line.
Dandolo was backed as a good thing on debut and delivered. He only really got going in the final 200m, but once he got his mind on the job, he really quickened like a smart horse in the making. Will no doubt appreciate this step up in trip of 300m, from a good draw, will be right there.
Sweet Sensation hails from the powerful 2yo stable of Corne Spies, and with the interesting jockey booking of Lyle compared to stable jock Zackey, everything points to them wanting the best pilot they could get on to overcome that tricky draw. She has great gate speed and should have no problem being in the top 2/3 put the gates. Highly regarded as being backed off the boards in all 3 of its career runs, and has a feature race placing to her name already.
Race 3:
Sovereign Spirit had everything go wrong in its last run, and somehow still managed to run a credible 3rd from being some 10L behind turning into the straight. Now having 3rd run after a rest, with a good draw, he will love every inch of this 2200, being by Dynasty out of a Jet Master mare, should be a very confident PA banker.
Pack Leader has similar credentials to the top selection, and should be fighting this out with him. There was little to choose on their last run, although SS is 0.5kg better off and drawn well compared to PL draw of 12, and can sometimes run flat, so is not the most reliable. All being well thou, should be right behind SS.
Western Fort comes off a horrid run in the Champions Challenge behind Hawwaam. I think we can draw a line through that run, and have a look at previous runs in the SA Classic and Derby runs, he as not disgraced at all. Greyville will suit his running style as he likes to be handy and has a short burst. Having run 5th in the Classic and 4th in the Derby, that Group 1 form should be good enough to be in the top 3/4 in a race like this.
Tristful the local boy will be giving his absolute best as always. A real hard knocking sort, who always puts in his best effort, especially at Greyville. Coming off a 2nd place finish behind ruling July favourite Belgarion, he shouldn't have too much issue finding the quartet. My only concern thou is the 2200, which i feel may just be a little stretch for him, but he is all heart and will be digging deep to stay on at the business end, and wont give the top selections an easy time. The draw of 13 is also a slight worry and 2nd run after rest syndrome could tell.
Race 4:
Silver Rose i penciled in last year before July and Gold Cup, as my horse to follow for the two staying races. This horse just goes abouts his business under the radar, and for the life of me i cannot work out how he has never contested this 3000m. He absolutely loves Greyville, boasting 11 finishes in the money from 13 starts. He stays all day and is crying out for this distance in my opinion. He likes to race up handy, which is a positive in races such as this, where there are always hard luck stories about being caught with the pace being too slow with a wall of horses infront of you, also trying to find a gap to sprint at the top of the straight with 16 runners in the field, to have a gelding such as this setting his own fractions up front with no stamina doubts, a great course record, he represents huge value at 16/1 for me.
Shenanigans was one of the fancies of punters in last years Gold Cup, and seemed to have just lost his way a bit since. He is however carrying 4.5kg less than he did last year, for a 2L beating, which on paper should be good enough to win a race like this. His last two runs he's really been a handful, and has powered to the front in both only to tire late in the closing stages. Those sort of tactics at Greyville could really work out well for him, and is one that will be probably in a different group ahead with Silver Rose, whilst the rest of the pack sits 5-7L behind going into the straight.
Wealthy was really unlucky to not have finished closer last year in this race, after being last at the 400, only to go down by under 2L into 4th. He comes into this race 0.5kg better off from last year, and should no doubt go very close once again.
Dark Moon Rising really has disappointed in recent times but he slowly is beginning to drop his MR quite nicely to an attractive (And realistic ability) mark. He lead all the way through last years Gold Cup, and only gave up the lead in the final furlong to still finish a credible 6th to Dynastys Blossom, whom he now meets on 3.5kg better weight terms for a 2.75L beating. That should be good enough to turn the tables over this marathon trip.
Race 5:
Delta Queen was oh so unlucky in her previous race behind Vernichey. She was bumped out the pens, and had to settle for sitting at the back of the field early on. She then drifted from middle/outside to the inside rail. At the 400m she had no where to go, and had to be pulled out for a run which cost her dearly at a crucial stage, and flew home to finish 2.8L behind Vernichey. She could have very easily been fighting the finish if not for her bad luck in running. Being a filly by River Jetez, she will love the extra ground she goes today, and looks a very classy horse in the making.
Carralluma will have the finances of the whole country on her shoulders to keep most punters Pick 6's alive. She certainly has the credentials to do so, and could come home lonely in style. Her last run was effortless, and gave the same sort of feeling Return Flight did as a 2yo at Greyville. I however have my concerns about the strength of that field she beat and feel she needs to still prove herself at this level. She will be right there, but at 6/10, that looks far too skinny.
Maledimo looked all at sea in his debut run at Turfontein over 1160m, but when the penny dropped at the 200m, really took off like a bullet and gave the impression he's a horse to follow. The step-up in trip will suit this horse ideally.
Sentbydestiny really enjoyed the step up to the mile last time out at the Vaal, even after making a hash of the start, and having to sit at the back of the field turning for home. Without any effort at all, she picked those up ahead of her one by one in fine style being 7th at the 400m, so then win going away by a length. It is interesting to note thou that Gavin has chosen to get off her to ride Maledimo.
Race 6:
Nourbese is a real dark horse for me that is over priced. I go back to my previous suggestion that Mount Pleasant is the best 2yo in the country. Nourbese ran 3rd to him in his penultimate, in the feature that day and was really running on strongly over the 1160m. He confirmed that good run next time out, when beating winners next time out with some ease, with a finishing 400m run in 22.6 which happens to be the 2nd fastest achieved by this field.
Erik The Red Was far too skinny at an opening call of 16/10, and has since drifted right out to 7/2, which seems more realistic, however, the alarming drift does come with some concern. Together with that, he does seem well exposed after having 6 runs already as a 2yo within the last 6 months. It is a bit concerning digging deeper into his runs, and thus wins on paper, that formlines have not been franked as well as one would want to see for a favourite like this. He should be a solid roving banker for quartets, and possibly even a PA banker, but there are a few that can improve to beat him, like the top selection and others to follow.
Ecstatic Green is a filly taking on the boys, and most probably due to the fact that Tarry would like to try win both baby races here. Caralluma is clearly the standout of the two, hence they not running together. That was a top run behind Vernichey last time out, only just getting beaten on the line. She does give the impression that shes a sprinter for now, and although i feel she will be handy and fighting out the finish, she may just run out of gas against the boys charging home at her in the final furlong.
Royal Exhibit took off like a bullet last time out in the final 400m, in a time of 23s, he made up some 9 places and over 8L after making a hash of the start. No doubt if he jumped on terms that day he would have won on his coconut. There is sure to be good speed in this race, and will be finishing strongly once again, whilst also having his 3rd run at Greyville, experience will count a few extra lengths here.
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