Greyville Saturday - Durban July Day

As per usual I have tried to make some sense out of the various opinions on the card - here's my take ...

Firstly if one is honest with yourself, you can't expect to back all the winners - but it you can back the right winner, it can still be a profitable day - a task made more difficult as one has to guess ito the BP, PA and P6, how the course will run on the day - will it favor front runners, etc. For now I see they are not expecting any rain and a NE wind of less that 20km/h - so all in all the weather should not be a factor ....

Next thing to try and figure out, is the pace in the various races - I think inevitably the races on the Poly will be Helter Skelter, which imo leaves the door open for runners coming from off the pace - but I suspect the eventual winner will be in the first half of the field entering the straight. The other races have all have more than 10 runners, and some quite big fields, so I don't see a crawl in any of them - bar maybe the Stayers race.

The betting ito starting prices on these big days usually is not that big an indication of what will transpire, so for me I'm always looking to find that 20/1 shot that should be 5/1 in my view - and as said, you only need one of these to come up smiling at the end of the day

I won't mention what my first choices are, as then I would give away the advantage in Magi's compo should I be right - and I really fancy those 6 bottles of wine .... but in general

R1: There are some runners with proven form on the Poly, and for me I'd rather be going for one of them than the short-priced (imo) Chimichurri Run or SIngforafa

R2: I have a sneaker here, of course Vernichey should prove hard to beat, but that draw makes her beatable imo

R3: Very competitive handicap - PA and BP should be worth money already after this - your choice as good as mine ....

R4: Another very open race - I prefer horses that are proven to stay and I think it lies between Sunshine Silk, Dynasty's Blossom, Factor Fifty and Flichity by Farr - surely those are enough for the PA - for the P6, one has to go Field to ensure survival

R5: Caralluma on her last run surely hard to beat, I have another sneaker, but backed Caralluma at evens, and I think my money is safe

R6: Not sure what to make of these, Erik the Red may have had an off day last time, if not I think it is quite open - plenty of value to be found outside the top 3

R7: I still think Belgarion the one to beat; Do It Again I think very tempting at current odds; Rainbow Bridge imo can't miss the first 4; if you do like the 3 yr olds (and nothing to suggest that they are not good enough), at current odds, one might as well take your chances with Padre Pio; don't like the jock choice on Golden Ducat - either will be overweight or not at full strength - and if he were mine I'd put Jason Gates up - anyway that's only me

R8: Got to be a 2 horse race; given the draw Celtic Sea the right one

R9: Very tough race - struggling to find something for the compo ....

R10: Get out stakes - and again I think plenty of value to be found - both Tree Tumbo and Infamous Fox attractively priced - and one other ....

Probably not much help - enjoy in isolation

howzit...exciting card to look forward to.

i am sure that a few decent favorites that have been backed in will arrive. at the end of the day it will be all about choosing the right ones when structuring your bets. to banker or not banker but as they say "fortune favors the brave" .
my fancies for the July will be Vardy and Belgarion...go you beauties!!!

enjoy everyone and all the very best

SOQRAT has been quietly hardening in price all week.

Farawaysaint wrote: SOQRAT has been quietly hardening in price all week.

Guys Bunker Hunt will win the july

DENNIS DRIER HAS A COUPLE OF GOOD CHANCES ON VDJ DAY

David Thiselton

Assistant trainer Stuart Ferrie commented on all of the yard's runners.

Race 1 GOLIATH HERON: "He's an honest little horse and will try his hardest but this is tough."

Race 4 Wealthy, who has had one race since lockdown and who finished fourth in this race last year. "He ran a good race in this race last year and is fit and well. I don't think it as strong a field as it was last year."

Race 9 Cartel Captain: "He is drawn one and this looks the right race for him. For some reason he jumped a bit slowly last time but that was the first time he had done that so if he jumps here he can take advantage of his good draw."

Race 10 Priceless Ruler: "He is not drawn well but is very well at home, he is the soundest he has ever been. He is better than he was in the Drill Hall (where he finished fourth just 1,2 lengths behind Vardy), or should I say he is fitter.

Cabo De Cruz: " I think he wants this trip now and if he was drawn one he would be a runner but from that wide draw it is going to be a bit tough for him

SEAN TARRY COMMENTS FOR VDJ DAY RUNNERS

David Thiselton

National champion trainer Sean Tarry continues to be happy with his two Vodacom Durban July contenders Tierra Del Fuego and Shango and he spoke about the rest of his runners on the day too.

Race 1 Chumichuri Run: "He wants the bend, I've always thought when he sprints on the bend he's impressive. Obviously the poly is the downside and the draw also. However, the Trippi's tend to go well on the poly. He led when winning the Umkhomazi as a two-year-old but I don't think he will lead this time, he will come from off them and if they go hard enough he'll have a good chance. I can't see them going slow over that 1100m. He's doing well and I'm expecting a good run."

Race 3 Lord Silverio: "He's definitely improved with the blinkers. He lost his way a little bit but I am expecting an improved run. It seems to be an open type of race and it wouldn't surprise me to see him kicking on strongly. I have always had an opinion of him and we've been a little bit unlucky with injuries and then we had to geld him and I think with the blinkers he may just give a nice signal of the old horse. In the Lonsdale last time he was going very nicely and just didn't kick on, but he wasn't tired or anything, I think he just lost interest."

Race 3 Tilbury Fort: "We are also putting the blinkers on him. He's looking good and I'm expecting improvement."

Race 4 Shenanigans (who won the Grade 3 DSTV 2200 at last year's meeting): "He was disappointing in his last start. I brought him down here just to change his mind. He has been here for a couple of weeks at least. I think he does enjoy Hollywoodbets Greyville and I'm expecting a much better run. We'll leave it to the jockey from that draw and he can ride him as he finds him. (He stayed on from well the back to win the DSTV 2200 but also stayed on in the Gold Cup from a handy position.) He's got plenty of ability and I think he will bounce back. A few of the horses here are being aimed at the Gold Cup and this is the trial. If you don't shape here you've got no chance of getting in."

Race 4 Before Noon: "He is a nice staying type. He has a decent draw and a low weight. He is obviously out at the weights by quite a bit but let's see how he'll go. He's an honest horse and we will see the level of ability he has over ground."

Race 5 Caralluma (who is being touted as the meeting banker): "If you watch her last replays it is a little bit concerning that she was so outpaced. You are wondering whether it's because she is looking for a bit further or is she just still very immature. We are hoping it's not a distance issue but other than that everything looks good. She couldn't have been more impressive than she has been and she seems to be in good order. Let's hope we can get that one home."

Race 5 Dubawi Princess: "Her last run she got beaten six lengths but she found interference and came back with a little bit of an issue. I think we are going to see a much improved race here. The blinkers are also back on, so I don't think she is going to disgrace herself and she is looking for this step up in trip."

Race 6 Ecstatic Green: "I think she has a winning chance. She went from the outside rail to the inside rail last time in a Group 1 and got beaten a short-head. She has the draw and the fillies' allowance and I think this colts' race could have been stronger, there's a few missing. She's got a chance. I may be wrong but I think she is also looking for the trip."

Race 6 Willow Express: "We're backing him up from Sunday. He ran a very good race in the maidens. It didn't seem like the strongest field but these colts are still coming on and they are not exposed, so we're taking a chance and will see where he fits in."

Race 8 Celtic Sea: "Doing well, I'm happy with her. There are a few in there with chances but if we have luck in running we are going to be big contenders."

Race 8 In The Dance: "We are just taking a chance because she ran so well at Hollywoodbets Greyville previously. She's got a good draw and it's her third run after a rest so she has got things in her favour but it's a big step up for her."

Race 10 Tree Tumbo: "He had a little abscess burst under his chin recently. His last run you can just put a line straight through it. He didn't go down well and he just wasn't right on the day for some reason. You can definitely put a line straight through that run. I'm expecting him to bounce back."

Padre Pio now 60/1 with Interbet :ohmy:

Best Bet – Race 3 SOVEREIGN SPIRIT (7/2* )

Value Bet – Race 6 NOURBESE (14/1* )

*Odds correct at time of posting

Mac wrote:

bayern wrote:

Mac wrote: Big demand for Caralluma in the baby girls race, evens to 13/20

@ Mac, have you seen the pressure for Chimichuri Run in the last two days, see the current price on the H/wood, admittedly they have always been shorter than both WSB and B/world. Two days ago, Chimichuri Run was available at 7/2 on the WSB site, see what price now.

Backed into 2/1 (eyepopping)! I guess I won’t get my 4/1 that is on request at Interbet


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Chimichuri Run now 33/20 :blink: