The Vaal, Tuesday 15 December

The Vaal hosts Tuesday`s South African races, an eight race card with a 13:10pm start time.

TRACK DETAILS

Race Track: Turf. 3000m oval circuit. Races up to 1600m straight course; beyond 1600m clockwise round turn with 1000m run-in.

Best Draws: Low-number draws slightly favoured in 1700m races.

Pen - 23
Going - Good
False Rail - Inside rails: Zero back straight 3m on the bend with 6.5m spur at 600m mark. Outside rails: Zero form1600m to 600m mark.

JUMP TIMES

Race 1 - 13:10
Race 2 - 13:50
Race 3 - 14:25
Race 4 - 15:00
Race 5 - 15:30
Race 6 - 16:00
Race 7 - 16:30
Race 8 - 17:00

EXOTICS
Bi Pot (Races 1-6 )
P A (Races 2-8 )
Pick 6 (Races 3-8 )
Jackpot 1 (Races 4-7 )
Jackpot 2 (Races 5-8 )

BEST BET
Race 5 LOTUS 22/10*

*Odds correct at time of posting

Just as Rich beats combined over 48 other maidens last two starts on lbh. place
...Eagle Alley over 40 horses behind on debut win - seems a decent horse
...Shukra comes from the very very strong Eighth Lord Dr Doolittle Fire Flower formline - First run back from covid rest 4 lengths behind rated 73 then 10 lengths now down to 68... bad field so a tarry horse with Lyle on at 3-1 a place i'll have every day - place
- Attentive over 30 behind him lbh last time -
No 99 - Both INDLAMU and BOLD JAZZ followed maidens with handicap wins and BJ won a 3yr old handicap against rated horses - INDLAMU wacked elders from draw11at turffs so I think 99 might just be better than rated as he's a slow starter for that stable as a 4yr old so nice rating of 72 to play with - ew - if not today very soon against similar

as an aside - for decades many on this site have pointed out the OBVIOUS SUMMER RAINS yet the flourishing Phumelela continues to have late starts at the Vaal - Greyville yesterday 12PM start - the genius factor starts us off at ten past one with 40 mins between race 1 and 2 - are they mad ?

mr hawaii wrote: Just as Rich beats combined over 48 other maidens last two starts on lbh. place
...Eagle Alley over 40 horses behind on debut win - seems a decent horse
...Shukra comes from the very very strong Eighth Lord Dr Doolittle Fire Flower formline - First run back from covid rest 4 lengths behind rated 73 then 10 lengths now down to 68... bad field so a tarry horse with Lyle on at 3-1 a place i'll have every day - place
- Attentive over 30 behind him lbh last time -
No 99 - Both INDLAMU and BOLD JAZZ followed maidens with handicap wins and BJ won a 3yr old handicap against rated horses - INDLAMU wacked elders from draw11at turffs so I think 99 might just be better than rated as he's a slow starter for that stable as a 4yr old so nice rating of 72 to play with - ew - if not today very soon against similar

as an aside - for decades many on this site have pointed out the OBVIOUS SUMMER RAINS yet the flourishing Phumelela continues to have late starts at the Vaal - Greyville yesterday 12PM start - the genius factor starts us off at ten past one with 40 mins between race 1 and 2 - are they mad ?

I think that the course is a hour drive from Jhb. They start late so that the "big wigs" can take a leisurely drive to the course and not be rushed!!!

VAAL STRAIGHT TUESDAY DECEMBER 15 FORMGUIDES, SELECTIONS, PERMUTATIONS

by David Thiselton

RACE 1: Preview: GODSWOOD (1) is a nice looking type and after not enjoying blinkers last time he is the one to beat in his second run after gelding. JUST AS RICH (2) is knocking on the door and should be thereabouts. LAGERTHA (7) is a well bred sort who has been disappointing over further and she now tries the minimum trip. (David Thiselton 1-2-7)

RACE 2: Preview: QUATTRO PASSI (3) will have the opportunity to dictate in this small field. EAGLE ALLEY (4) is well bred and although he will need further he won over 1450m on debut and could make a bold bid. MASTER SUPREME (1) has talent but has been a touch disappointing and now gets the blinkers on and jumps from pole. (David Thiselton 3-4-1)

RACE 3: Preview: SALUT DE WINTER (11) is by What A Winter out of the twice Listed-winning middle distance to staying type Salutation. TIMEFORTHAT (1) improved last time with a strong finish and can win this with a repeat. REGENCY BALL (3) has pace and will enjoy reverting to the minimum trip. SKY VIEW (12) is by Global View out of a four-time winning Kahal mare. KAROO SPACE (7) ran a good fifth in her penultimate start over this trip and a repeat would be just about good enough to win this uninspiring event. ALMALFI COAST (5) is by Potala Palace and is a half-sister to the Listed-placed staying type Balalaika (Imperial Stride). LOVE POSY (9) is by Flower Alley out of a once-winning Rich Man’s Gold mare. and NYAKASANGA (4) could be involved if producing her best. (David Thiselton 11-1-3-12-7-5-9-4)

RACE 4: Preview: LIVERPOOL LEGEND (13) has a fair draw unlike last time when caught wide over this trip and she looks the one to beat under Strydom. PLUM FIELD (15) beat Liverpool Legend last time by 2,75 lengths and from pole position should be able to produce her normal strong finish. IN FOR A PENNY (3) is 3.5kg under sufferance with the best weighted according to official merit ratings but he comes off a good run behind the useful Category Four over this trip and should make his presence felt. BAYMAX (9) has been given a reasonable opening merit rating and although officially 2.5kg under sufferance with best weighted horses he is scopey and should improve. RABIA THE REBEL ( is the joint best weighted and can never be ignored as she is dangerous in a front-running or handy position. NABEELA (6) is the joint best weighted but does have a tough draw over this ideal trip. (David Thiselton 13-15-3-9-8-6)

RACE 5: Preview: LOTUS (2) beat Mode by 2,25 lengths over 1600m in October and now gets 1kg so looks the one to beat from a fair draw. JOANNA ESS (5) looks to be a typically improving daughter of Ideal World and should be a threat. MODE (1) has to carry topweight in this maiden handicap but has improved and should be in the shake up with Strydom up. (David Thiselton 2-5-1)

RACE 6: Preview: ATTENTIVE (11) finished a fine second over 2000m after a long layoff and although he would prefer further he runs off his old 54 merit rating as opposed to his new rating of 69 so is effectively 7.5kg well in and thus carries 53.5kg instead of 61kg in this maiden handicap. LEADING LAD (1) has earned topweight but as a handy type does have a tricky draw over this ideal trip so it. RED BISHOP (6) has first-time blinkers on so a wide draw doesn’t augur well but he should enjoy the step up in trip and Yeni aboard will help him get placed. (David Thiselton 11-1-6)

RACE 7: Preview: LADY DEFIANCE (3) is a classy looking filly who won on debut in May 2019 and then disappointed second time out last December but the penny had clearly not dropped in both starts and she now has blinkers on in her comeback from a year’s layoff in a Classified Stakes race in which she is officially the best weighted although her draw of one will be a concern if there is any draw bias on the day. STORMY WINTER (1) enjoys this course and distance and needs a strong ride so Khumalo looks like the ideal jockey for him and he has a chance of following up on his win last time. BIRDWATCHER (5) won her maiden well and is the joint best-weighted horse and Strydom stays aboard. IN THE GAME (7) has Yeni aboard which should bring the best out of him and he is capable of being involved in the finish. NUMBERNINETYNINE (2), a progressive front-runner, starts off handicapping on a reasonable mark but his merit rating falls at the bottom of one of the weight bands meaning he is 3,5kg under sufferance with the best weighted horse. ANATURA (6) should enjoy the step down to this trip and SUPA MUFTI (12) could be involved if reverting to handy tactics. (David Thiselton 3-1-5-7-2-6-12)

RACE 8: Preview: AFRIEL (13) has had awkward starts in her last two over 1200m and 1000m respectively but still gone close so she should be involved again and although her merit rating of 64 falls at the bottom of one of the weight bands her 1,5kg allowance allows her to be one of the joint second best weighted runners behind reserve runner La Valette. STARFLASH (3) is at the top of the top weight band so is weighted equally with the best weighted females, who all get an allowance, so he has a chance of landing this Classified event. SPEECHMAKER (16) is one of the many joint second best weighted runners and Piere Strydom will help this hard-knocker get her head in front. HERTOG (4) has not placed in many runs since January but has generally been facing a lot stronger and his merit rating has dropped to an attractive mark so he could be a player her despite being 1kg under sufferance with all of the above mentioned runners. SEKHMET (5) is one of the joint second-best weighted runners and might well have benefited from a break and she will also enjoy the more forgiving ground compared to the hard winter going. LOOK TO THE SKY (2), another of the joint second best weighted runners, has not run a place since winning easily over this course and distance in January but he has now dropped to a competitive mark and will appreciate the slight step down in trip after being a bit keen in the front last time over 1200m and fading although he would prefer the minimum trip. BRIDGE OF SPIES (14) is one of the joint second best weighted runners and if repeating his effort in his penultimate start when leading over 1200m and losing by only three-quarters of a length he has a shout. SNOW IN SEATTLE (12) and WE ALL CHOMIES ( are 1,5kg under sufferance with the best weighted but can’t be ignored. (David Thiselton 13-3-16-4-5-2-14-12-

Place Accumulator: (R243)
Leg 1: 3,4,1
Leg 2: 11,1,3
Leg 3: 13
Leg 4: 2,5,1
Leg 5: 11
Leg 6: 3,1,5
Leg 7: 13,3,16

Pick 6: (R3780)
Leg 1: 1,3,7
Leg 2: 13,5,3,9,8
Leg 3: 2,5,1
Leg 4: 11,1
Leg 5: 3,1,5,7,2,6,12
Leg 6: 13,3,16,4,5,2

Jackpot: (R252)
Leg 1: 13,5,3,9,8,6
Leg 2: 2,5,1
Leg 3: 11,1
Leg 4: 3,1,5,7,2,6,12

Best:
Race 1: 1

Value:
Race 4: 13

Challenging card - thoughts:

R1: Godswood goes back to 1000, did not put his best foot forward with blinkers last time; that was also his first run as a gelding - for me should take a lot of beating on his short-head 2nd behind Break the Silence; should he fluff his lines again, any of Just as Rich, Freezing Fast and Lagertha can pick up the pieces

R2: Quatro Passi improving and looks very hard to beat, especially on his last run; Master Supreme may improve with blinkers and is the danger; not sure about Eagle Alley

R3: Competitive Maiden Plate for fillies and mares; Amalfi Coast and Salute de Winter do not have to be superstars to feature here; Manhattan Magic found some market support on her debut and could be worth another chance; the rest look limited imo

R4: A real nightmare and has FIELD written all over it; a few that may ran better than the odds suggest, are Chevron (rating dropping and gets another 4kgs off courtesy of the apprentice), Shuckra (once ran less than 5 lengths behind Chijmes only receiving 2 kgs) and Rocky Path (especially if we get a shower or 2)

R5: Maiden Handicap, where Joanna Ess and On Broadway (ignore last run ?) look the right ones to me at the weights - Lotus also a chance, while Mode has to give weight to all, but is at least consistent, so could place

R6: Another Maiden Handicap, where Attentive looks thrown in on is last run - however that was over 2000, so for me I think Grace from Above has a huge chance at these weights; Leading Lad has to give weight, but has a place chance, while runners like Thunderjet, Waltzing Al and Royal Siege can surprise at these weights

R7: Set weights, but not easy; Stormy Winter now gets a 4kg claimer, so comes right into this after a good win last time; Anatura better 1600 imo and has a chance as well with Bird Watcher, but there are plenty of others in the race

R8: Another set weights race, but again not easy; Starflash overdue, and should go close over this 1100, as well as Afriel who is in form; Sekhmet, We All Chomies, Bridge of Spies, Speechmaker, the list goes on ....

I predict a P6 carry-over ..... Enjoy

Sammy Silver wrote:

mr hawaii wrote: Just as Rich beats combined over 48 other maidens last two starts on lbh. place
...Eagle Alley over 40 horses behind on debut win - seems a decent horse
...Shukra comes from the very very strong Eighth Lord Dr Doolittle Fire Flower formline - First run back from covid rest 4 lengths behind rated 73 then 10 lengths now down to 68... bad field so a tarry horse with Lyle on at 3-1 a place i'll have every day - place
- Attentive over 30 behind him lbh last time -
No 99 - Both INDLAMU and BOLD JAZZ followed maidens with handicap wins and BJ won a 3yr old handicap against rated horses - INDLAMU wacked elders from draw11at turffs so I think 99 might just be better than rated as he's a slow starter for that stable as a 4yr old so nice rating of 72 to play with - ew - if not today very soon against similar

as an aside - for decades many on this site have pointed out the OBVIOUS SUMMER RAINS yet the flourishing Phumelela continues to have late starts at the Vaal - Greyville yesterday 12PM start - the genius factor starts us off at ten past one with 40 mins between race 1 and 2 - are they mad ?

I think that the course is a hour drive from Jhb. They start late so that the "big wigs" can take a leisurely drive to the course and not be rushed!!!

Having been involved with the Vaal years ago getting a "toupee" from Phumelela to come out to that course was difficult let alone a big wig - If I recall they maintained that the reason for late starts was to accommodate international punters which always threw me as I wonder if those international players only play the Vaal or Turffontein and have no appetite for Kzn and PE(tomorrow those crazy guys in PE are starting at 11h50) - I will say that the worst storms I've ever seen have been between 1pm and 6pm on the road to the Vaal - At times there are long queues to park under bridges during storms on that road - Hell why did they sell Newmarket!!

Race 3: 7,8,10
Race 4: 2,6,7,9,10,13,15
Race 5: 2,5
Race 6: 1,3,7,8
Race 7: 2,3,4,5,6.7,9,10,12
Race 8: 3,5,16

mr hawaii wrote:

Sammy Silver wrote:

mr hawaii wrote: Just as Rich beats combined over 48 other maidens last two starts on lbh. place
...Eagle Alley over 40 horses behind on debut win - seems a decent horse
...Shukra comes from the very very strong Eighth Lord Dr Doolittle Fire Flower formline - First run back from covid rest 4 lengths behind rated 73 then 10 lengths now down to 68... bad field so a tarry horse with Lyle on at 3-1 a place i'll have every day - place
- Attentive over 30 behind him lbh last time -
No 99 - Both INDLAMU and BOLD JAZZ followed maidens with handicap wins and BJ won a 3yr old handicap against rated horses - INDLAMU wacked elders from draw11at turffs so I think 99 might just be better than rated as he's a slow starter for that stable as a 4yr old so nice rating of 72 to play with - ew - if not today very soon against similar

as an aside - for decades many on this site have pointed out the OBVIOUS SUMMER RAINS yet the flourishing Phumelela continues to have late starts at the Vaal - Greyville yesterday 12PM start - the genius factor starts us off at ten past one with 40 mins between race 1 and 2 - are they mad ?

I think that the course is a hour drive from Jhb. They start late so that the "big wigs" can take a leisurely drive to the course and not be rushed!!!

Having been involved with the Vaal years ago getting a "toupee" from Phumelela to come out to that course was difficult let alone a big wig - If I recall they maintained that the reason for late starts was to accommodate international punters which always threw me as I wonder if those international players only play the Vaal or Turffontein and have no appetite for Kzn and PE(tomorrow those crazy guys in PE are starting at 11h50) - I will say that the worst storms I've ever seen have been between 1pm and 6pm on the road to the Vaal - At times there are long queues to park under bridges during storms on that road - Hell why did they sell Newmarket!!

Couldn't agree more, Newmarket was central to everything and who can ever forget that 1300m dogleg.

I expect the 2nd run after gelding will help...Godswood...

Here's hoping Santa arrives today with an EARLY Xmas present..... R7 # 7 IN THE GAME 12/ 1 gone e.way - 4 x places

Pirhobeta wrote: I expect the 2nd run after gelding will help...Godswood...

Well done!!

Phelisile Mongqawa rode an extremely good race, kept his cool, let it settle and then a good controlled ride through to the post...
And James Maree...