Jet Dark now 130

HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE


L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate (Grade 1)
JET DARK has had his merit rating raised from 109 to 130 after the solitary three-year-old in the line-up saw off a high class field of older horses on WFA terms in the Grade 1 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate over 1600m on the Kenilworth summer course on Saturday 9 January.

In assessing the race, the Handicappers felt that runner-up RAINBOW BRIDGE had performed very similarly as when finishing second in the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes in his most recent start, and accordingly used him to the mark of 128 he actually achieved on that occasion. That said, it was deemed premature to drop Rainbow Bridge to a mark of 128 and accordingly his rating was trimmed from 134 to 132.

4th placed DO IT AGAIN was dropped from 133 to 131 in order to make him lower than RAINBOW BRIDGE, while the only other change was for SILVER OPERATOR, who is up from 109 to 112, which equates to his previous career best achieved rating.


Cartier Paddock Stakes (Grade 1)
QUEEN SUPREME remains unchanged on a mark of 126 after she recorded a second successive win in the Grade 1 Cartier Paddock Stakes (WFA) for fillies and mares over 1800m at Kenilworth on Saturday.

As the line horse, the Handicappers opted to use runner-up CLOUDS UNFOLD to the 119 she actually achieved when finishing 4th in the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes at her previous start. Here too the Handicappers felt it is too soon to drop CLOUDS UNFOLD to a rating of 119 and opted to trim her mark from 124 to 122. In rating the race this way, QUEEN SUPREME actually runs two pounds below her rating of 126.

3rd placed PRINCESS CALLA was raised from 111 to 116, while her fellow three-year-old and 4th finisher CHAT CHING is up from 108 to 114, keeping her in line with PRINCESS CALLA. The only other increase was for SING OUT LOUD, who is up from 105 to 109, while in contrast DRIVING MISS DAISY was dropped from 115 to 112.


Glorious Goodwood Premier Trophy (Grade 2)
GOLDEN DUCAT remains unchanged on a rating of 128 after he fought on gamely to win the Grade 2 Glorious Goodwood Premier Trophy over 1800m at Kenilworth on Saturday. Here it was 4th placed SUPER SILVANO who was deemed to make for the best line horse, which leaves him unchanged on a mark of 104. In rating this way, GOLDEN DUCAT only runs to a mark of 113, hence his unchanged rating.

The only increase was for runner-up SACHDEV, who is up from 107 to 108, while AFRICAN NIGHT SKY was given the sole decrease and is down from 120 to 115.


Okapi Chairman’s Cup (Grade 3)
SILVER HOST has seen his rating increased from 102 to 107 after he won the Grade 3 Okapi Chairman’s Cup over 2500m at Kenilworth on Saturday. It was 3rd placed AZORES who was considered to make for best line horse, and as such he remains unaltered on a mark of 101.

Runner-up ATYAAB was given a drop from 115 to 113, while 4th finisher HOLY WARRIOR remains unchanged on a rating of 90 despite running to 97 as the specific conditions of this event do not allow for an increase for placed horses.

Two other runners were however given a drop, with CAT DADDY going from 100 to 97 and TROOP THE COLOUR dropping from 92 to 89.


Cartier Sceptre Stakes (Grade 2)
CELTIC SEA remains unchanged on a rating of 126 after she won the Grade 2 Cartier Sceptre Stakes for fillies and mares over 1200m for a second year in succession at Kenilworth on Friday. Runner-up FAVORITA and 3rd placed HELLO WINTER HELLO were both used as line horses here, which leaves them both unchanged on a mark of 100. In assessing the race this way, CELTIC SEA only runs to a mark of 108, hence her unchanged rating.

The only increase was for 4th placed VERONICA MARS, who is up from 95 to 96, but there were drops for a number of runners. PRETTY YOUNG THING is down from 116 to 115, ROLL IN THE HAY drops from 102 to 100, POINT OF SALE is down from 102 to 99, THIRD RUNWAY drops to 107 from 109, and lastly TRICKSTER drops from 104 to 102.


Ardmore Jamaica Handicap (Listed)
ELUSIVE FORTUNE has had her rating raised from 90 to 93 following her courageous success in the Listed Ardmore Jamaica Handicap for fillies and mares over 2000m at Kenilworth on Friday 8 January. 4th placed JACQUELINE was used as the line horse here, and as such she remains unchanged on a mark of 90.

2nd placed SLEEPING SINGLE goes up from 107 to 109, while 3rd finisher CATCHAFALLINGSTAR (who was 7 pounds or 3.5 kgs under sufferance at the weights) was raised from 83 to 92. 5th placed FOLLOW THE STAR also runs to her mark and remains as is on 90, having carried 1 kg overweight.

Two horses were given a drop. RATTLE MOUSE is down from 95 to 92, while FLAME TREE was cut from 97 to 93.


Swallow Stakes (Listed)
ZIMBABA has had her rating raised from 89 to 98 after she comfortably won the Listed Swallow Stakes for three-year-old fillies over the 1160m straight course at Turffontein on Sunday. In a race rendered awkward to assess by soft going and a consequent strung-out finish, it was decided to use runner-up CELESTIAL LOVE as the line horse and so she remains unchanged on 90.

Aside from the winner there was no other increases, but two fillies were given a ratings’ drop. ANNA CAPRI is down from 110 to 107, while ECSTATIC GREEN was cut from 103 to 101.



Enquiries:
The Handicapping Team

I think a few things to note here; imo the LQP is difficult to assess, but imo one can't have Jet Dark raised to 130 and have Silver Operator at 112 - either Silver Operator ran to 112, which means that Jet Dark ran to around 117 (and all of Rainbow Bridge, Belgarion, Do It Again ran way below their ratings) or you have Jet Dark running to 130 (which means that while Rainbow Bridge, Belgarion and Do It Again ran closer to their ratings, both Silver Operator and Sovereign Spirit ran way above their ratings)

I do agree more or less on the ratings for the Paddock Stakes - using Myabi Gold and Kelpie as line horses, would mean Queen Supreme ran to around 122, Clouds Unfold to 118 (which is understandable as she probably achieved her 124 over 1600) and Princess Calla ran to 116 - which begs the question - is Jet Dark really 14 pounds better than Princess Calla?

In the Premier's, using Sachdev and Super Silvano as line horses, means that Golden Ducat (still needing the run ?) ran way below his rating - also African Night Sky needs a further drop to be competitive in a handicap imo

In the Chairman's Cup, I'd be inclined to use Retro Effect and Silver de Lange as line horses, which means that Silver Host ran to around 103, and Atyaab to around 108 - which (in my view) is more in line with his effort in the Summer Cup

As we all know, this is not an exact science, this game is based on opinions - but that's the way I see it :dry:

Hi Frodo, your assessment of the LQP is probably fair - the ongoing problem continues to be that Rainbow Bridge, Do It Again etc are too highly rated which has now drawn Belgarion and Jet Dark to marks well above where they should be. Remembering that Golden Ducat beat Sachdev by only half a length in the Cape Derby clearly supports the view that Golden Ducat is also now too highly rated but he earned that because of Rainbow Bridge and Do It Again being overrated when winning the Champions Cup.

i don't think i understand SA MR system but i reckon the cowboys are in charge and as such they make strange and crazy calls.

Many examples of them loading up horses from top yards and then taking years to bring the ratings down.

this system is robbing us of superstars that will bring punters and spectators back to racing.

a far more Conservative approach on the upward rating of all horses and a far more aggressive stance on the downward side. that or make all graded races WFA or condition races.

this is critical in a time where stakes are shit , vets are a cartel and owner(takes all the risk and yet) suck the hind tit after all the deductions.

for what its worth Frodo seems closer to reality than the Cowboys.

Frodo wrote: I think a few things to note here; imo the LQP is difficult to assess, but imo one can't have Jet Dark raised to 130 and have Silver Operator at 112 - either Silver Operator ran to 112, which means that Jet Dark ran to around 117 (and all of Rainbow Bridge, Belgarion, Do It Again ran way below their ratings) or you have Jet Dark running to 130 (which means that while Rainbow Bridge, Belgarion and Do It Again ran closer to their ratings, both Silver Operator and Sovereign Spirit ran way above their ratings)

I do agree more or less on the ratings for the Paddock Stakes - using Myabi Gold and Kelpie as line horses, would mean Queen Supreme ran to around 122, Clouds Unfold to 118 (which is understandable as she probably achieved her 124 over 1600) and Princess Calla ran to 116 - which begs the question - is Jet Dark really 14 pounds better than Princess Calla?

In the Premier's, using Sachdev and Super Silvano as line horses, means that Golden Ducat (still needing the run ?) ran way below his rating - also African Night Sky needs a further drop to be competitive in a handicap imo

In the Chairman's Cup, I'd be inclined to use Retro Effect and Silver de Lange as line horses, which means that Silver Host ran to around 103, and Atyaab to around 108 - which (in my view) is more in line with his effort in the Summer Cup

As we all know, this is not an exact science, this game is based on opinions - but that's the way I see it :dry:

Have a look at Finchhatton - in one month 95-93-94-92 - he went up and down at age 9 in 4 weeks - There are other poor souls that take 5 runs and don't drop and then others beat snails and are rated potential Graded horses after 2 runs - sometimes I wonder if testing should not only apply to Jocks and horses ......

The other problem with rating the QP is that all of Rainbow Bridge, Do It Again and Belgarion are 2000m+ horses and not true milers, and I don’t think that any of them were fully wound up yet with the Met as their main target and the late finish to the KzN season due to COVID meant that preps for the Cape season have been truncated.

Until recent months I’ve been one of those that always respected the handicappers ratings.

After the Summer Cup I was scratching my head now this.

If JD is a 130 over 1600 then what about his Guinness run, what about the sales race that included both fillies and colts that can be cross referenced to both Guineas.

There is absolutely no way that JD can beat Clouds Unfound over 1600 off a 130 +- age and sex adjustments, no ways!!

Biggest problem handicappers sits with is FALSE RUN RACES but they need to rate that races .
The guineas was the most pathetic race i seen in many years with the best 3yos in many a year in it and you can draw a line through that whole race ..... it was only a 500m sprint gallop that day. FALLS RACES GIVE FALSE RESULTS GIVE FALSE RATINGS GIVE TRAINERS AND OWNERS FALLS HOPE AND ITS KILLING THE PUNTERS .
My opinion the 3yolds are the best crop i seen in many years and the best ones wasnt even in the queens plate.

That is the reason i instructed Warren Kennedy to go make his own pace if they try and crawl on Saturday. I rather lose an honest race than winning a false run race because you have no idea how good a horse really is then. I rather have my horse have a true rating than a false rating .

One thing to bear in mind is that young horses can improve hugely from one run to the next.
An example is the performances of Variety Club and Gimmethegreenlight.
Both ran 6 times as juveniles winning 3/6 and 4/6 respectively.
In the Selangor, Variety Club beat Gimme by a neck. I think that they both had a rating of around 108 at that point (this was when our ratings were more or less in line with international ratings).In the Guineas, Variety Club won as he liked and beat Gimme (4th) by 6 lengths. A month later they fought out the Queens Plate where Gimme beat VC by half a length, and both had ratings around 118 (In todays terms 130+)