Durbanville, 23/03

Race (2)

Interesting and very open race. I think one of these will win the race.

Duplicity (15/10 – 59.5kgs) dropping down in class, won a gutsy race last time out where she was well weighted. Not sure she can concede 1.0kg and 2.5kg to the market rivals and a beating.

Starboard (28/10 – 58.5kgs), feel she is the one they all have to beat. Beaten 1.75 lengths by Duplicity two runs back, reason being, she failed to quicken and Duplicity got first run on her (watch the replay if you can). Next time out, blinkers were fitted and had the desired effect, Starboard won no fuss or anxious moments. First run in the handicaps, but she really looks open to any amount of improvement and can pull this off. I don't think van Niekerk will make the same mistake and let Duplicity get too far ahead, that would negate the weight advantage.

Regina Isabella (3/1 – 57.0kgs), best weighted of the three. Not without a chance it must be said, but may need the run, last seen in December 2020. (Dons the COVID face sheild which doubles up as an egg visor).

Race (4)

Some punters talk of intent on the part of the stable when placing a horse, and it’s chances of winning “the” race. If ever there was a clear sign of intent, it would be with Contact Zone. Stable jock, Mbhele, who is riding today and who has ridden Contact Zone in the last 5 starts, is giving way to van Niekerk. That’s all the intent I need. Certainly won’t be fully fit, last raced in December, but this horse beat the Gatekeeper, (very fancied to win the Derby, finished third), and who came out and beat Golden Ducat next time out. Hoping his class will pull him through.

For me this is a terrible card from a punter's point of view; the 2nd, 3rd and 4th races have only one runner each at odds of greater than 10/1; in the 5th the biggest outsider in the 7 horse field is at 17/2; while the last 3 races have at least 7 runners each quoted at 10/1 or smaller - I'll rather find some work to do :huh:

Frodo wrote: For me this is a terrible card from a punter's point of view; the 2nd, 3rd and 4th races have only one runner each at odds of greater than 10/1; in the 5th the biggest outsider in the 7 horse field is at 17/2; while the last 3 races have at least 7 runners each quoted at 10/1 or smaller - I'll rather find some work to do :huh:

@ Frodo, how many on this site find a 10/1 plus winner every meeting, Sunday to following Monday, i will suck his D..... dirty finger. Anyway let's see how many double digit winner there are between races 2 to 5, or on the card for that matter.

Anyone who does that, doesn't need to work for a boss.

@bayern - not sure that you follow what I'm trying to say; my point is not that 4 or 5 horses priced up at more than 10s can win on the day, in fact my point is exactly the opposite - there are too many horses priced up in each race at 10/1 and less, which makes the racing ultra competitive - and the exotics very difficult to catch and due to the small fields unlikely to yield decent dividends; as an example in the 2nd, the horse that looks best handicapped to me is Queen's Club (on the run to Silver Sabre); anyway, to each his own and may you break a leg with your selections

Long White Cloud has drawn well if she is precocious.By new stallion Cable Bay and ticks all the right boxes from a punter's perspective
Her gate speed will neutralize Host Of Angels poor draw so going with her to fill in a place
This is all in the first

Frodo wrote: @bayern - not sure that you follow what I'm trying to say; my point is not that 4 or 5 horses priced up at more than 10s can win on the day, in fact my point is exactly the opposite - there are too many horses priced up in each race at 10/1 and less, which makes the racing ultra competitive - and the exotics very difficult to catch and due to the small fields unlikely to yield decent dividends; as an example in the 2nd, the horse that looks best handicapped to me is Queen's Club (on the run to Silver Sabre); anyway, to each his own and may you break a leg with your selections

That's how I understood your post...very competitive day if one looks at the betting...not many that can be eliminated at first glance...I guess today we show our ability or we get lucky with the dart-board...

Computaform news.tabonline.co.za/FieldsPDF/Computafo...VILLE@2021.03.23.pdf

TNaicker wrote:

Frodo wrote: @bayern - not sure that you follow what I'm trying to say; my point is not that 4 or 5 horses priced up at more than 10s can win on the day, in fact my point is exactly the opposite - there are too many horses priced up in each race at 10/1 and less, which makes the racing ultra competitive - and the exotics very difficult to catch and due to the small fields unlikely to yield decent dividends; as an example in the 2nd, the horse that looks best handicapped to me is Queen's Club (on the run to Silver Sabre); anyway, to each his own and may you break a leg with your selections

That's how I understood your post...very competitive day if one looks at the betting...not many that can be eliminated at first glance...I guess today we show our ability or we get lucky with the dart-board...

Before this gets blown out of proportion, apologies to Frodo if i mis-understood his post.

I see betting in the same light as merit ratings, it's just someone's opinion, it sometimes makes sense to form your own.

Deez`s Selections

VALUE BETS
R5 - August Leaves
R7 - Major Attraction

JACKPOT
1/1/5/5 ( Guide add as required)

Very hot, sunny day with a light headwind expected. Course will be fast.
Sunday was quite straightforward, finding 5 outright winners on an 8 race card- and only 1 upset. Today much more challenging.
race 1 Long White Cloud has been priced up favourite. A January foal, so a few months behind the other 3 year olds, hence is a few kilos out at WFA. Cable Bay was a very quick 2 yo in his day, and has thrown a lot of juvenile winners in both the north and in Australia (he has been a shuttle stallion) from his first couple of crops. Not the strongest of fields, so must be respected. Fly to Rio has been fairly consistent and should be in the money. Sea Lion and Galiek Yo Baby both have speed and neither would be a surprise. Gillian Anne improved nicely last time and should challenge. The well bred Host of Angels has shown none of the talent of her sister Lanner Falcon. Regards to All is well exposed and has a place chance.
Race 2 A competitive handicap. Not much between the two progressive three year olds, Starboard and Duplicity, and they are selected to fight it out, but any of these could win.
Race 3 If Jean's Man is fit and back to best then its no race, as he ran way above his rating in October at this track At 12/1 is worth a dip. I have Elusive Tango which returns from an injury. He runs well fresh and has a place chance in an otherwise very open race.
Race 4 Our mare Secret Depths always gives of her best and has an ew shout in another very competitive race. Red lark and Contact Zone are decent 3 year olds - at the weights Contact Zone is preferred.
Race 5 Fort Agopian has won both his races at this course and can win if they let him get away. Night Song very consistent and should go close- little between him and August Leaves.. Marshall's pair have scope for improvement.
Race 6 A tricky race where the lightly raced 3 yos take on some hard knocking older fillies. Miss Millstream has come down in the ratings and could pop up. Royal Blue looks very progressive, although has not run since October.
Race 7 A strong field, and Larentina has been priced up favourite. She is down further in the ratings and must be ready to win soon. My selection is Major Attraction (I will admit some bias as the breeder)- but both her wins have come at this track. Walk of Fame and Chile Jam are on the up and should be in the mix.
Race 8 Captain Dizzy won a nice race last time and should follow up here. Quite a few others with chances.

After reading PeterD's very helpful analysis of todays card (challenging), I concur with Frodo. A wee bipot and p/a will be my chop.

Good Morning All

I seem to have found quite a few value bets but then I have been wrong before.

My Two Cents.

1. Long White Cloud priced up as favourite but my value is Sea Lion.
2. Queens Club to beat Duplicity and Starboard.
4. Contact Zone and Red Lark.
6.Miss Millstream, Wild Creature and Arc Lamp.
7. Larentina; Chile Jam
8. Barney Mcgrew.

Play well, stay safe, stay healthy.