Re:Vodacom Durban July Log - 13 May

Gtgl should win this years July but after all this debacle about the mr system we must be wary just now they pull it

If Rainbow Bridge is scratched before announcement of the final field, now that would change the entire complexion of the race.

And Balgarion but no money of mine will be on this race.

I admit i dont understand all the nuances of teh SAHORSERACING website, however it still shows Golden Ducat as accepted. I thought i read he was scratched due to an injury.

Sylvester wrote: I admit i dont understand all the nuances of teh SAHORSERACING website, however it still shows Golden Ducat as accepted. I thought i read he was scratched due to an injury.

Well I think there was an update on Facebook or Twitter or somewhere - not sure if he was 'officially' scratched - hopefully they will catch a wake-up one of these days - I also saw some of the bookies still quoting him quite a few days after his non-participation was revealed - but I see that he is no longer quoted on both WSB and HW

Officially scratched now

WILL MATTERHORN JOIN SHE'S A KEEPER ON THE VDJ LOG?
David Thiselton
WSB 1900 winner She's A Keeper will almost certainly be included in the top 18 of the next Vodacom Durban July log, despite officially having a rating of just 96, and the progressive Alyson Wright-trained runner up Matterhorn also warrants consideration.
The Grade 2 WSB 1900 is one of the four races alongside the Grade 1 WSB Summer Cup, the Grade 3 Cup Trial and the Grade 3 Jubilee Handicap, in which the winner enjoys preferential consideration for the final VDJ field.
However, this year's WSB 1900 dished up one of the strangest qualifying race results in July history because the trio that finished well clear of the rest were officially the three worst rated horses in the field.
Gimmethegreenlight filly She's A Keeper's merit rating has continually been capped by handicap guideline restrictions and race conditions.
However, the anomaly of Sunday's race is that if only the the first three horses are considered she did not run any better than the capped 96 rating she has been given, but if the rest of the field is considered the first three home all ran way above their ratings.
The bare result shows four-year-old She's A Keeper, carrying 50kg off a 90 merit rating, beating four-year-old Matterhorn, carrying 54kg off a 100 rating, by 0,90 lengths, with the MJ Odendaal-trained three-year-old Shavout, carrying 52kg off an 87 rating, a further 0,80 lengths behind.
However, She's A Keeper was officially 4kg under sufferance with the best weighted Doublemint, who was in 19th place on the first VDJ log, and beat him by 9,15 lengths; Matterhorm was 3kg under sufferance with Doublemint and beat him by 8,25 lengths and three-year-old Shavout was a whopping 10kg under sufferance with Doublemint and beat him by 7,45 lengths. The trio were also well clear of 4,60 length fourth-placed Crown Towers, who was in 17th place on the first VDJ log, and even further clear of 20th placed Tristful and a street clear of Zillaal, who was among the five horses just outside of the top 20.
The WSB race conditions state that the winner can not be raised more than six merit rated points and placed horses can not be raised at all.
She's A Keeper was duly raised six points to 96 and Matterhorn and Shavout remain on 100 and 87 respectively, so the inclusion of both She's A Keeper and Matterhorn will give the log an unusual look. Shavout is not a July entry.
Four-time winning Marchfield gelding Matterhorn has won three times and finished second twice in his five starts this season, and is definitely on the up, whilst one-time winner Shavout has managed two successive stakes race thirds, so is also coming into his own.
Nevertheless, the result has certainly provided a headache for the VDJ log panellists.
The first VDJ log is shown below.
Vodacom Durban July Log as at 13 May 2021
1 RAINBOW BRIDGE (6G) Eric Sands 134
2 LINEBACKER (3G) Vaughan Marshall 124
3 WAR OF ATHENA (3F) Paul Matchett 122
4 GOT THE GREENLIGHT (4C) Joe Soma 124
5 BELGARION (5G) Justin Snaith 130
6 DO IT AGAIN (6G) Justin Snaith 129
7 GOLDEN DUCAT (4G) Eric Sands 128
8 SECOND BASE (3G) J A Janse van Vuur 122
9 KOMMETDIEDING (3C) HWJ Crawford/M Rix 120
10 NETTA (3F) Paul Peter 120
11 RUSSIAN ROCK (3C) Dean Kannemeyer 119
12 SOVEREIGN SPIRIT (5G) Candice Bass-Robin 124
13 PRINCESS CALLA (3F) Adam Marcus 118
14 RUNNING BRAVE (5M) Fanie Bronkhorst 119
15 CIRILLO (5H) Sean Tarry 120
16 RASCALLION (3G) Vaughan Marshall 111
17 CROWN TOWERS (AUS) (5G) Justin Snaith 115
18 EXPRESSFROMTHEUS (4G) Stuart Pettigrew 122
…………………..
19 DOUBLEMINT (6G) Justin Snaith 118
20 TRISTFUL (5G) Tony Rivalland 113
Next 5 in alphabetical order
ATYAAB (AUS) (5G) Zietsman Oosthuize 115
THE GATEKEEPER (3C) Justin Snaith 110
TIERRA DEL FUEGO (5H) Sean Tarry 116
TRIP TO AFRICA (4G) Duncan Howells 114
ZILLZAAL (5G) Sean Tarry 116

Obviously a very difficult race to rate - for me if one uses Crown Towers as the 'line horse', it follows that She's a Keeper ran to around 102 and Matterhorn to around 109; at their current 'official' ratings, in the July She's a Keeper would carry 52 kgs and Matterhorn 53 kgs - so to me Matterhorn much better value at current odds of 66/1 vs She's a Keeper at 33/1 (taking into account that Matterhorn gave She's a Keeper 4 kgs in the 1900 - and was beaten less than a length) - the question of course is if Matterhorn will get a run - given a possible bias in the panel towards KZN runners, chances are he will get a run - who knows :dry:

The way things are falling into shape maybe WOA is the right one with an inform Muzi on board 🤔

Good Punting

I’ve dutched a second horse to land the July. Also the fairer sex, She’s A Taker

.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Two more spots opening up - looks like both Second Base and Princess Calla are out ...

Frodo wrote: Two more spots opening up - looks like both Second Base and Princess Calla are out ...

Yeah officially scratched