SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

  • Dave Scott
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SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago
#830137
OK I am aware we have plenty information with regards fancies, permutations etc on the Summer Cup moved from Saturday to Tuesday.

Why not next Sunday??

However the damage is done especially for the connections who had runners on Tuesday.

Please post your new selections after scratchings here

Good Punting

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  • Dave Scott
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Re: SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago
#830139
Horses we heard that were expected to run well on Saturday and should also be considered Tuesday

Bellevarde

Forever Mine

Big Burn

Pyromatic

Perfect Witness

War Of Athena

Out of your League/ Smoking Hot

Good Punting

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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago
#830208
Weather Mostly Sunny, 80% chance of showers & thunderstorms, 15-29 Degrees,13km/hr to 20km/hr Westerly Head Wind
Rainfall Last 24 Hours Nil
Rainfall Last 7 Days 65 mm
Irrigation Last 24 Hours Nil
Irrigation Last 7 Days Nil
Penetrometer Reading 23
Track Condition Good
False Rail Zero back straight to 6,5m on the bend with a 6,5m spur at the 700m mark

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  • Dave Scott
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Re: SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago
#830211
Maybe the weather forecast is as bad as the tipsters but I still think the weather will play a part 🤔

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  • Zain Nabi
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Re: SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago
#830212
One must not forget that trainer Mike de Kock has a shrewdy in the big one with Khumalo up. Jockey trainer combination has an okay strike rate.

Not forgetting when they parternered and won together with Enaad in the Elan Gold Cup.

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  • Dave Scott
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Re: SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago
#830213
I am sure it was Bob that posted Alesian Chief at a big price, I see it's been backed to fav.

However the bigger topic is HOW IS THE WEATHER this morning.

We had plenty overnight rain in Pretoria but the sun is shining this morning 🤞

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  • Mac
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Re: SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago
#830214
That was a lot of rain and for a long duration. Dont know how the Big T coped. We’ll race on this side of the heavy but It is lightning that is the showstopper.


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Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Mac.

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  • Mac
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Re: SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago
#830215
Lightning is forecast between 2pm and 6pm 😱.




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Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Mac.

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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago
#830216
TUE 30-Nov,
Dear Trainers 6mm rain overnight at TRC, Average Pen reading is 24 - good to soft - updated track report to follow. The forecast for this afternoon has improved somewhat and whilst the likelihood is that will get a thunderstorm later, we have plenty daylight and the night racing lights as back up in the event that there is a lightning delay.
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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago
#830217
TURFFONTEIN STANDSIDE TUESDAY NOVEMBER 30 FORMGUIDES, SELECTIONS, PERMUTATIONS

by David Thiselton

R1

Preview: ANGELSEA (3) has gone close twice over this trip and looks the one to beat. BELLAVARDE (6) is improving and is well drawn over a suitable trip. OCEAN'S PRIDE (2) is an honest long-time maiden who goes well for this jockey and has pole position. (David Thiselton 3-6-2)

R2

Preview: MAGNUM PI (1) is knocking on the door and can get it right here. MASTER OF COIN (5) has gone close in both starts over this trip and is the chief danger. ABBAYAAN (9) disappointed last tie over 1450m when only a 4,55 lngth fourth but it was his first run for three months and the form of that race has worked out quite well and he should also stay the trip being by Vercingetorix out of a Giant's Causeway mare who won up to 2000m. (David Thiselton 1-5-9)

R3

Preview: SOUND OF SUMMER (6) has only lost once over a trip of a mile or less and that was when still learning so he could still be ahead of the handicapper as a late starter and he has a good draw. FOREVER MINE (3) could be dangerous from the front if he settles as he kept going well last time over 1450m when dictating despite it being his first run after a layoff. SARAGON (7) loves this course and distance and could be a contender. (David Thiselton 6-3-7)

R4

Preview: SHEELA (9) has a potentially unfavourable low draw but has a lot of speed which will help her overcome it and her class can bring her home as it did last time when she was able to run on well for second over 1000m despite finishing down the inside. BIG BURN (7) folded late last time over 1400m despite having looked suited to that trip due to her natural early speed coupled with a good kick but she romped home on debut over this course and distance in a good time and has a fairly high draw which is favorable by trends. RIO'S WINTER (4) has a nice high draw and is 6kg better off with Tropic Sun for a two length beating in the Sycamore Sprint . THUMBS UP (5) won't mind the step down in trip and has a high draw. WINTER SMOKE (6) enjoys this course and distance and has quite a high draw. ZIMBABA (3), LUCY ENGLISH (15), FULL VELOCITY (13), SOUND OF WARNING (10) and TANZANITE QUEEN (16) all make appeal too but some of them have low draws so the early races will have to be monitored for any draw advantage. (David Thiselton 9-7-4-5-6-3-15-13-10-16)

R5

Preview: BATTLE FORCE (2) never looked like losing last time over his favourite course and distance and has landed another potentially high draw. WINTER STORIES (9) won down the inside last time which is some feat by trends and he now has a high draw and will enjoy the step up in trip. SINGFORAFA (6) bounced back to form last time and is drawn on the right side. MK'S PRIDE (4) has the worst draw of one by trends but his speed and class might pull him through. VASEEM (12) goes for five in a row over a suitable trip from a high draw. ALESIAN CHIEF (13) won easily last time but off his new eleven point higher merit rating he is still 1kg under sufferance. PEARL OF ASIA (1) is capable of a flying finish so can be dropped out from a draw on the low side. CHIMICHURI RUN (3) can never be ignored and has a middle draw. BARTHOLDI (14) has talent and the draw of seven can possibly be overcome if the bias is duly towards the outside. ULTRA MAGNUS (5) has a shout from a high draw if bouncing back to his best. (David Thiselton 2-9-6-1-12-13-3-4-14-5)

R6

Preview: SAFE PASSAGE (2) has some fine form including beating Grade 1 winner Sentbydestiny over this trip on terms 5kg worse than weight for age so he has a fine chance for a yard in flying form. PYROMANIAC (1) will relish the step up in trip on pedigree and has shown he has class. ARAGOSTA (5) is a resolute galloper who can progress although he does have a tough draw to overcome. CASTLETOWN (4) has a good draw and will relish the step up in trip. although he does have 3,75 lengths to find on Pyromaniac fro their 1400m meeting. LITTLE PRINCE (7) produced an amazing finish last time over this trip when looking beaten and looks te stable elect. OCEAN WARRIOR (6) is a scopey sort who can still improve and he has a good draw. SUPER EXCITED (3) beat older horses going away last time over 1400m and is hard to ignored. (David Thiselton 2-1-5-4-7-6-3)

R7

Preview: RAIN IN HOLLAND (8 ) will relish the step up in trip and although this is still likely on the sharp side for her she will be making a bold late bid. PERFECT WITNESS (9) is progressive and pulled away last time despite having not had cover in the running. BOLD FORTUNE (3) is in fine form and won't mind the step back down in trip so is a contender from a good draw. ROUGE ALLURE (4) waltzed home the last time she ran over this course and distance and is drawn in pole. CLAFOUTIS (10) was left with too much to do last time but from a better draw can se her fine turn of foot and could surprise. (David Thiselton 8-9-3-4-10)

R8

Preview: WAR OF ATHENA (3) is course and distance suited and has a good draw and this champion filly can continue to progress this season. MALMOOS (2) lands the perfect draw for a horse who has good gatespeed but appreciates cover in a handy position and it will be no surprise to see him defy second topweight over an ideal course and distance. SHANGO (7) sneaks into the handicap with the minimum weight of 54kg and should make a bold bid over an ideal course and distance although he does have to overcome a high draw. BINGWA (4) has a good temperament and a huge stride and proved himself able to overcome wide draws when romping home in the Grade 2 OSA Mile and he can just about get this trip. GOT THE GREENLIGHT (1) has plenty of class and if producing his best is capable of defying topweight but he does have to bounce back from a lacklustre run by his standards. MAJESTIC MOZART (11) showed himself to be potentially better than his merit rating last time so is an interesting runner despite being 2kg under sufferance. FLYING CARPET (13), SPARKLING WATER (12) and PUERTO MANZANO (8 ) are are 4kg, 3kg and 1kg under sufferance respectively but have have shown signs they are capable of progressing beyond those marks and they all should be finishing well. SPARKLING WATER (12) has won both her starts in soft going. GOLDEN PHEASANT (10) has won four times in soft going and TIERRA DEL FUEGO (15) has won three times in such going. AFRICAN ADVENTURE (5) should relish the tough test provided by soft ground. (David Thiselton 3-2-7-4-1-11-13-12-8-10-15-5)

R9

Preview: SMOKING HOT (6) stays this trip and in her third run after a layoff faces Marchingontogether on the same terms as last time when beating the latter by half-a-lengths and she now has a beter draw than she had in that race. MARCHINGONTOGETHER (3) disappointed in his only attempt at this trip in last year's Gold Cup but having bounced back to form since being relocated to St. John Gray's Highveld yard he can go close from pole position off a merit rating 12 points lower than his highest ever rating. OUT OF YOUR LEAGUE (1) has two Graded race thirds over this trip this year and this Grade 1 SA Derby winner has his third run of the season but he is 4.5kg worse off with Smoking Hot despite having been beaten 0,80 lengths by the latter in this year's Gold Bowl back in May. DON'T LOOK BACK (4) won the Gold Bowl and is 3kg better off with Out Of Your League despite beating him by 1,40 lengths but is 1.5kg worse off with Smoking Hot for a 0,60 length beating and he was beaten by all of the aforementioned horses over 2400m last time on these same weight terms although he does now have his third run after a layoff so could bounce back. CAPTAIN CHORUS (7) is is 2.5kg under sufferance but is in good form, stays the trip and is drawn in pole. (David Thiselton 6-3-1-4-7)

R10

Preview: CLARKSON (1) has shown ability and has a shout in this uninspiring field. MARIA'S WORLD (12) has pole position and should be a contender here. TUULETAR (11) finished only half-a-length behind Maria's World last time and although out of a Windrush sprint-miler type he is by Judpot which should help him get 2000m. (David Thiselton 1-12-11)

Bipot (R72)
Leg 1: 1,5
Leg 2: 6
Leg 3: 9,7,4
Leg 4: 2,9,6
Leg 5: 2,1
Leg 6: 8,9

Place Accumulator: (R216)
Leg 1: 6
Leg 2: 9,7,4
Leg 3: 2,9,6
Leg 4: 2,1
Leg 5: 8,9
Leg 6: 3,2
Leg 7: 6,3,1

Pick 6: (R3600)
Leg 1: 9,7,4,5,6,3
Leg 2: 2,9,6,4,12
Leg 3: 2,1,5,4,7
Leg 4: 8,9,3,4
Leg 5: 3,2
Leg 6: 6,3,1

Jackpot: (R400)
Leg 1: 2,9,6,4,12
Leg 2: 2,1,5,4,7
Leg 3: 8,9,3,4
Leg 4: 3,2,7,11

Best Bet:
Race 3: 6

Value Bet:
Race 6: 2
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Bob Brogan.

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  • Frodo
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Re: SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago
#830222
I wrote the following on Saturday, not much has happened to change my views - I see that Bingwas has com ein for a lot of support - so although I prefer others, he can't be ignored; hopefully we get through the day even if they have to switch on the lights :

Quite a few that needs to prove they run to their best on soft ground :huh:

R1: Whichever of the two hotties that take your fancy - I'm siding with the de Kock inmate - no value though

R2: Magnum PI tough to beat - I think the value at current odds is Secret Link

R3: I fancy Forever Mine to be too good here - he has consistently run better than his official rating imo

R4: Where will the best draw be - traditionally when it comes up soft, it favors the stand side, so I have just gone the field in my small P6

R5: Race 4 should give a good indication on where the best going is, Battle Force has been such a revelation and drawn on the stand side - has also won in the soft at Scottsville, so should be right there again; I do fancy Chimichuri Run who gets blinkers again today and Gavin has finished in the first 3 on him on 8 out of 12 tries; Bartholdi weighted to finish in front of BF today and gets blinkers probably in an effort to sharpen him up; Winter Stories also look very capable and is also drawn on what could be the right side of the track

R6: Competitive - Super Excited the value

R7: Perfect Witness very impressive last time and should take some beating imo; Rain in Holland 2nd best for me

R8: A few questions to be answered - as mentioned by many, a lot of runners under sufferance, so the top 3 in the market will justly have a lot of support; I do fancy Shango a bit at the weights, while the roughies Golden Pheasant (just a kilo under sufferance and loves the wet) and African Adventure could make the quartet pay; Puerto Manzano may be asked to set the pace for the stable mate, or Majestic Mozart could ensure at least a decent gallop :unsure:

R9: I think Smoking Hot the right one (many thought she should have been awarded the Gold Bowl); biggest danger Marchingontogether

R10: Have a drink to celebrate the day - win or lose B)

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  • Bob Brogan
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Re: SUMMER CUP TUESDAY 30TH.

3 years 6 months ago
#830224

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