SCOTTSVILLE SUNDAY 10 JULY 2022

durbs wrote:

And we really can't just blame the poor quality of horses.
Flamingo Park had all the outcasts yet the results where not consistently as unfavorable as here in KZN.

@durbs...even my dart-board is not working so rather than blame the course or horses or trainers or jockeys, I'm going to get a new dart-baord...

TNaicker wrote:

There will be some-one (trainer, jockey, owner, fellow punters, etc) who will be able to explain it logically...your (and my) fault @durbs for not seeing the obvious...it is, apparently, the brain game after all...

.....too true....but one has to have a combination of skills in spotting what is not obvious to others....and dive deep into card study as most of my bigger wins have come from what others would term "out of left field" logic....firstly form is the last thing I look at and so is betting.....it helps to know who is who in the zoo.....case in point the winner in the last race today.....not really my poison(ped picture) but a full sister to the useful 5 time winning Celestial Love and I did instantly see that the breeder had taken/retained a share in it and to me he must think the bloodline is worth something later at stud.....the principal owners dont seem to be short of cash and own quite a few outright....and thus for me worth including in a rather shallow field....

So why is the pick 6 a carry over if all this works apparently. Asking for a friend if this is so easy to work out

Mossel wrote:

So why is the pick 6 a carry over if all this works apparently. Asking for a friend if this is so easy to work out

the P6 has never been an easy bet to catch....yet since 2002 using "left field logic" I caught a small % of at least 1 to 2 very big ones every year until 2014 and more so where there were carry overs.....one of the factors that enabled me to win big with a relatively small outlay was the couplings rule that was abandoned in 2014......so since then and with dwindling pools I hardly play the P6 anymore but do have a stab on big race days....the other day I saw a punter that often with similar small % play also caught several big carryover payouts....and was able to drive top of the range SUV's and live a good life....but saw him drive off in a clapped out Ford Fiesta....guess that he too is not able to catch those elusive big ones anymore.....:S

Maybe years back when the stake money was decent connections would always want to win as the more you win the better races the horses run in and obviously the stakes higher.
Now with MR you can win one race in decent fashion in a good time and the horse might be rated in the high 80's or low 90's making it difficult to win.
In the past you could win 6 races and still be much better than other 6 time winners so could still win easily next time out but now you handicapped to finish in a straight line most races.
Trainers now have to try and plan a horses career otherwise they might be handicapped out the game early on.
So I'm not sure that every horse goes out to win every time they come to the races.
Easiest way to do this is come into the race not 100% fit.
It's hard for the punter to guess the condition of the horse or if they actually want to win the race as they might feel it's MR would be too high to be competitive in futures races.
To get into the feature races you need a high MR but we have very few quality horses so most want to try stay competitive in low to middle MR races.
Running a few places will still see the horse earn a few bucks but winning sometimes can end the horses career as MR goes up quicker than they come down.

I have printed today's card and stuck it on a wall and am busy throwing darts for today's meeting to see what comes up. No form studying for KZN racing for me anymore....let the darts fall where they may :silly:

On a serious note though, i have switched my attention more to UK racing as the results are generally more consistent with the odd donkey popping up every now and then. So I've been catching a lot of straight line PA's especially at the "night" meetings. This after being handed my ass on a platter during the day from our local racing. I find the UK racing more exciting too as the jockeys ride more vigorously in my humble opinion. At least you know you're getting your money's worth when you wager on a horse.

thisotherdude wrote:

I have printed today's card and stuck it on a wall and am busy throwing darts for today's meeting to see what comes up. No form studying for KZN racing for me anymore....let the darts fall where they may :silly:

I've been using a dart-board and it hasn't been working...solution I have found is to replace the dart-board as there are trainers, jockeys and fellow Clanners who can always point the supposed obvious that was missed...always, after the race...:whistle:

TNaicker wrote:

thisotherdude wrote:

I have printed today's card and stuck it on a wall and am busy throwing darts for today's meeting to see what comes up. No form studying for KZN racing for me anymore....let the darts fall where they may :silly:

I've been using a dart-board and it hasn't been working...solution I have found is to replace the dart-board as there are trainers, jockeys and fellow Clanners who can always point the supposed obvious that was missed...always, after the race...:whistle:

As young Brendon the commentator always says and i quote "i don't want to seem like an after race merchant" and then proceeds to do just that :silly: :whistle:

thisotherdude wrote:

On a serious note though, i have switched my attention more to UK racing as the results are generally more consistent with the odd donkey popping up every now and then. So I've been catching a lot of straight line PA's especially at the "night" meetings. This after being handed my ass on a platter during the day from our local racing. I find the UK racing more exciting too as the jockeys ride more vigorously in my humble opinion. At least you know you're getting your money's worth when you wager on a horse.

.....I also enjoy UK flat racing yet differ about over vigorous riding and crop abuse there.....the way that some of those okes ride there is the reason why I prefer female jocks....just look at the way Jason Gates cocked it yesterday as he was trying to throw the kitchen sink at his mount and his ride emulates many that I see in the UK....believe me some horses may respond to those tactics.....but many more do not...:whistle:

My 1 cent worth on the topic of the P6...I think the "trick" is to find the right race to load up on, and hope the roughie comes in. Therefore, its not necessarily about finding that out of left field winner, but rather predicting/guessing/using-the-dart-board-to-find the right race to wide.

Lionel wrote:

My 1 cent worth on the topic of the P6...I think the "trick" is to find the right race to load up on, and hope the roughie comes in. Therefore, its not necessarily about finding that out of left field winner, but rather predicting/guessing/using-the-dart-board-to-find the right race to wide.

The race/s in which the few in the know can go short ? !!:whistle: