After the euphoria of a profitable Fairview meeting (66-1 shot on top in Race 6), back to earth with a bump at Greyville with yesterday's software ratings where many of the favorites won and the software's longer priced horses could not catch anything including a cold. So, onto the run of the mill affair at Kenilworth today. But as my mentor, Michael Pizzola would always say, do not eschew these types of races because often these low key races offer more value opportunities than the big race days when the country's top horses come out to play.
The potential value bets have been marked with an asterisk under BOOK.
Last edit: 2 years 10 months ago by Ptahotep.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Sammy Silver, kristieN
We had a fair bit of rain yesterday and Friday so it should be quite soft underfoot. Clear today and no wind.
Elusive Fort had a good finish to the season in KZN yesterday, with a gallant effort by Kommetdieding, just touched off in the gr1, as well as good thirds by Sprinkles and Big Burn in the gr 2 and gr 1 respectively, and also an exciting Gr2 juvenile winner, Swing Upon a Star. His progeny earnings over R10m for the season and 7th on the sire log.
he has a couple of chances in CT today, with a strong hand in race 6 (Cracklin Rose and Treasure Hunt, and in race 8 Fort Red).
Race 1 Heart Stealer good debut and the one to beat, although very skinny price. Captaine Maurice fair form and I Did It My Way the challengers.
Race 2 Hear My Voice the one to beat but again a skinny price. Lady Silvano fair debut, and is a full sister to top sprinter Bold Respect, so improvement likely. I have 2 runners. Soft Touch fair run last time and has come on from that, and should run in the money today, although a couple of first timers to worry about. Lady Renee makes her debut. She is a nice filly, but is a big girl and is bred for further. Has galloped at Kenilworth, and if not too green should be running on at them.
Race 3 Glen Kotzen saddles 4 of the 6 runners. Last Storm probably the stable elect with Fourie up, but is a 2yo going a trip in soft going so needs to be above average to win. That said, the 3yos are moderate, with little between them. I bred Nothingelsematters which was very disappointing when never getting into it last time after a fair run the time before. They have fitted the tongue tie, so hopefully that helps him. Tricky first leg of the pick 6.
Race 4 Country Time and Gypsey Express have fair form and have been priced up joint favourites. The first timers don't have to be superstars to challenge. Iwould add both Cityscape and Hunting Trip to the jackpot.
Race 5 There is very little between the raced runners on form, with a slight preference for Masterful Guy and Galactic Path. The first timer Triple Time is joint favourite and must be respected, but not an easy task for a 2yo on debut. I bred Quasimodo, which was a distant 3rd behind a runaway winner last time. He should enjoy the step up in trip on pedigree.
Race 6 We have the game and consistent filly Treasure Hunt. Course and distance suited and holding form well. She has to give weight to all, but I'm expecting another honest run and she has an ew chance again. Cracklin Rose is a kg better off for a head defeat last time, so could turn the tables. Tipsy Tarragon and Time Flies are both on the up and lightly raced so could be anything. Margin Call has plummeted in the ratings and on her best form is best weighted. Jet For Time also way down in the ratings and is 5kg better off with us for 2.65 lengths last time which could be a winning turnaround. However, both these fillies are inconsistent.
race 7 A very tricky handicap. Over the sprints, the 2yos are probably the right ones. Seeking Peace is another that has come way down in the ratings and could pop up.
Race 8 Another very competitive race. Fort Red is consistent and is the one to beat, but is worse off at the weights with All Lit Up and the old man Power Grid. Dance Variety scope for improvement.( Beat Heart Stealer last time so watch how that runs today). Bluff On Bluff below best recently, but can win on best form.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Sweet Coetzee, kt6747, Sammy Silver, TNaicker
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