Turffontein Inside - 25/08/2022

Race 4: 74 Handicap 1800m

The Laird stable has started the new season firing (4 winners and 3 places out of 10 starts) and #5 BLONDE ACT (2-1 JF) can follow up on his victory over this CD last week. He has in fact won both his races over this CD and in a race where I have course/distance queries amongst those near the top of the market I like his chances. He runs his best races when dropped out and I expect similar tactics here despite him having the 1 draw. He’s a clear 1st choice.

#3 HUMBLE TUNE (7-2 – distance not an issue, but maybe best on a galloping track), #2 DAWN OF A NEW ERA (7-2 – Course ok, but only 1 win in 23 starts and the trip isn’t confirmed to suit) and #7 FOLLOW MY PATH (33-1 – could cause the big upset) are the others I’d consider here.

#1 DON’T TOUCH ME (2-1 JF) has shown himself (in 4 attempts) to be vulnerable once he goes beyond 1600m, so although some progeny of Var do stay, I don’t think he’s one of them so I’M AGAINST HIM.

SELECTION: 5 my clear 1st choice; 7 could cause a big upset.

Check out the rest of my blog on:

bettingmyway.com/2022/08/24/turffontein-inside-25-08-2022/

Justanotherpunter wrote:

Race 4: 74 Handicap 1800m

The Laird stable has started the new season firing (4 winners and 3 places out of 10 starts) and #5 BLONDE ACT (2-1 JF) can follow up on his victory over this CD last week. He has in fact won both his races over this CD and in a race where I have course/distance queries amongst those near the top of the market I like his chances. He runs his best races when dropped out and I expect similar tactics here despite him having the 1 draw. He’s a clear 1st choice.

#3 HUMBLE TUNE (7-2 – distance not an issue, but maybe best on a galloping track), #2 DAWN OF A NEW ERA (7-2 – Course ok, but only 1 win in 23 starts and the trip isn’t confirmed to suit) and #7 FOLLOW MY PATH (33-1 – could cause the big upset) are the others I’d consider here.

#1 DON’T TOUCH ME (2-1 JF) has shown himself (in 4 attempts) to be vulnerable once he goes beyond 1600m, so although some progeny of Var do stay, I don’t think he’s one of them so I’M AGAINST HIM.

SELECTION: 5 my clear 1st choice; 7 could cause a big upset.

Check out the rest of my blog on:

bettingmyway.com/2022/08/24/turffontein-inside-25-08-2022/

DAWN OF A NEW ERA will Defnitely be suited to the 9 furlongs and will give BA the most to think about....especially that last 150m

VANDERBILT looks a very good horse in the making over a mile...with all that good pace upfront...but tmrw...

Blloomington (especially with the apply up) and BARNEYS PRIDE are both drawn inside of VDB....so they might make him work harder than usual in that 1st 200m to cross them....meanwhile KAPTEIN should sit in 4th or 5th 1 off the rail....the pace will be good and I feel KAPTEIN can run on late and give VDB a scare late on...nice place Value

Good morning and thanks for your valuable inputs.

As you are aware Humble runs again today and I get embarrassed by the amount of times I have stuck you away with tipping Humble but at least you don't have to feed it 😪

I was bullish last time and remain the same.
Horse is well, top jockey, distance fine and he likes to run handy on a fast track and the 318 days since last win will hopefully come to an end.

George is picking me up to go to the track.

I feel like the host on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, and Jeremy has to answer "tell you what I think"

I will be taking a double with Humble Tune and Baaeed to win the Champion Stakes and make it 11 from 11 and retire.
Hopefully Baaeed does not let us down and we don't retire before the Champ.

Good Punting

Would be great to see a 5 timer but our Handicap system probably got to Vanderbilt. Venniker and Khumalo have strong rides.

Go Humble Tune

heinrich wrote:

VANDERBILT looks a very good horse in the making over a mile...with all that good pace upfront...but tmrw...

Blloomington (especially with the apply up) and BARNEYS PRIDE are both drawn inside of VDB....so they might make him work harder than usual in that 1st 200m to cross them....meanwhile KAPTEIN should sit in 4th or 5th 1 off the rail....the pace will be good and I feel KAPTEIN can run on late and give VDB a scare late on...nice place Value

Let's try again after a dismal day (for me) on Tuesday ....

R1: One would have to think Miss Soho is the right one, due mainly to lack of opposition - although the rider has yet to manage a win in 13 attempts :huh: - still has pole position so not too many excuses; danger could prove Platinum Run, who is entitled to improvement in her 2nd start - has a neat draw and the rider is no stranger to the winner's enclosure; Up the Irish tries pacifiers, but the rider is also relatively inexperienced, so one is led to believe that the rider on the favorite had the pick Regina Bellissima comes from a run on the Poly, so I'm not sold on her

R2: Existentialist entitled to be favorite, but the odds imo too short - still hard to oppose on exposed form; no comment forthcoming (in the Computaform at least) on Woodland Ridge - coming of a rest, but only 2nd start, so improvement possible - may need further than 1000 Tre Amici needs further improvement to challenge imo, while the rest look decidedly moderate

R3: Tulip Tree very short in the market; I am not convinced that the 1800 will suit the daughter of What a Winter; big danger imo could be Raratonga Rose, who is improving with racing - held by TT, but I think it could be a different story over the extra 200m; not convinced about the form of both the Peter runners, and both have wide draws to contend with - perhaps not really a train smash over 1800 though; the rest would have to show big improvement ot feature

R4: Into the handicaps, and I also think that 1800 could be a stretch for Don't Touch Me, so I prefer others; Blonde Act has run well at this track and of course his last win was over this trip, so obvious chance; not convinced either about Dawn of a New Era seeing out the 1800, but I do prefer him to DTM; Humble Tune - the positive is that Bling has only finished worse than 2nd on him once out of 5 rides - the negative imo is that he appears to be better at other tracks - still can't be ignored; big roughie to consider imo is My Master - 3rd run for this stable and has been dropped more than 10 points in the ratings - has run well at this track and needs to be considered for the placings at least

R5: Interesting handicap; Vanderbilt of course on a hot streak, but should have his work cut out at the weights today - still foolish to bet against him imo; Duke of Rain much better off at the weights this time, tries this track for the first time, so a bit of a guess on how he will run here; Leopold looks the biggest danger to V imo, overdue and maybe the ear muffs are the right medicine; Sir Michael has a big weight, but must have chance as well; Barney's Pride imo could struggle over the 1600 against this field, as is the case with Bloomington - and the apprentice imo needs to get more than 4kgs to make his rides competitive :huh: interesting runner making a re-appearance after 446 days is Diesel and Dust - let's see how he goes

R6: I do think it is a bit of match race between Moonshiningthrough and It's About Time; for me both Far Away Winter and Miss Daisy have tough tasks at the weights - still it's only 1000m, so can't be totally ignored; Constable disappointed last time, but have a chance on previous form as well

R7: Very open F&M handicap; for me I think No Time is Taken is the right one, but bar the 66/1 outsider, most have some sort of chance imo

R8: Very thin field; does look like Ignatius should be hard to beat here, from Big Five - only Allaroundtheworld to worry about imo

Enjoy

Let's see if 2 Cents still has it, he's balls to the wind on BLONDE ACT race 4