DURBANVILLE SATURDAY 24 SEPTEMBER 2022

Hoping race 8 turns out to be a cracking racing with some lovely 3 years olds running.

Race 8: Graduation Plate 1250m

A quality field of 3 yr olds and this is much more intriguing than just about having a bet. Many of these will be contesting Graded races in just a few months.

#1 CHARLESS DICKENS (12-10), aka “Goosebumps,” has a massive reputation based on his work and thus far he has brought it to the race track too. He’s won 2 sprints, but he will be wanting at least 1600m before long (his full brother Somerset Maugham contests the Listed 2000m in the previous race), so providing he isn’t caught out by this quick 1250m around the bend for the first time, he should enhance that reputation and remain unbeaten.

#3 ICONIC DESTINATION (7-1) impressed on his debut before always being outpaced by #6 last time. He gets a 3kg swing in his favour for that 2,25L beating, so there looks to be little in it between those two.

#4 NARINA TROGON (8-1) won going away on debut over 1000m, but he really should be a miler+ based on his breeding. That was a weak field relative to this, so although a unexposed sort like him can’t be totally ignored, he will probably be outsprinted this time.

#6 DAVE THE KING (7-2) has shown good natural pace in both his runs and he’s been a convincing winner on each occasion. That’s hard to fault, but he does have a big, loping action and I do have concerns that the tight bend at Durbanville may not suit him. On that basis I am going to oppose him, so I’M AGAINST HIM.

RESULT: 1-3-9-2

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did my customary quick glance and have 2 observations
race 4 : guy alexander , khumalo up for peter wrensch so can hopefully get into the winners box today
race 8: tough terrain, keegan de melo birthday today , hope snaith can give him a birthday winner

Clear day, not much wind, course will be running fast.
Race 1 Hunting Trip the obvious one but very short price. What Now My Girl has run two shockers in the wet but a good run in between so could cause the upset on the good going. A couple of first timers to worry about.
Race 2 Competitive race. Our filly Treasure Hunt likes this course and was just collared last time in a fast run race over a bit further. Hoping that she can get there today, but has to take on some improving 3yos that are less exposed, and some hard knockers that have been more kindly treated by the handicapper than she.
Race 3. A flood of money for the first timer Inside Story. As a 4 yr old is well in against the younger horses and does not have to be a super star to justify the support.
Aussenkehr has been coming on the right way, although I was a bit disappointed that he did not win last time, he is in with a good ew chance. Sir William good debut and could turn the tables on Aussenkehr this time. Night Tiger very tough draw but showed good improvement second start. A couple of other first timers to consider.
Race 4 On handicap conditions this is an open race. Global Forests has solid form and is probably the one to beat. I thought that Quasimodo should have gone closer last time, but he should enjoy this trip on breeding, and has an ew shout.
Race 5 Very competitive. My shortlist is Different Face, Porque te Vas and City Scape.
Race 6. Competitive handicap, but I think that Shavout looked like he needed his last run and I make him a big runner today.
Race 7 I like Baratheon to win today. Was wrongly ridden last time, and needs to dictate. Somerset Maugham and Han Solo the main dangers but a few others with chances.
Race 8 For me the race of the day and many in this field will have classic aspirations. Hence most of them will be better over further. Dave the King was very impressive last time, and I will stick with him. However he is a very big horse and may find this track a bit tight. Charles Dickens has also been very impressive and gets the plum draw so must be respected. Iconic Destination gets a 3kg swing with Dave, and that brings him into the picture. Nerina Trogon good debut and could be anything. Wecangoallnight also gets the 3kg pull, and has won on this track.

Here’s a cheeky pick 6- add on where you like
1,4,7 x 2,3,5,7 x 2,4,7 x 9 x 2,6,8 x 1,6. = R216

Race 3 the first timer inside story.. something is cooking here.
According to delpech and the trainer, this horse will need the run. Fortunes of money is coming for it, I know a few people who are on it, however I wonder if everyone is following this horse due to shortening, on internet alone there is already 55k on which for a first timer in the morning is huge.
However I think the bookmakers who are laying this short price including in multiples are going to make money as race time this horse will probably drift badly.
Caution on taking a silly price,don’t fall for 1/1
Would be shocked if I was wrong and the horse stayed at that price and won.
Today I’m listening to them and playing against this wrongly priced horse.

Thoughts ....

R1: Hunting Trip at prohibitive odds, but hard to imagine her getting beat against these; F Eight improving with racing, and from a wide draw could prove second best, but if What’s Now My Gal repeats her penultimate effort where she finished in front of F8 by nearly 3 lengths, she could of course be the main threat – but Crawford/Rix & Behr does not inspire the confidence as Kannemeyer and De Melo – so F* my preference for the runner-up spot; the only other raced runners that boast some sort of chance of finishing in the first 4, imo are Coastal Blues and White Witch’; both Snaith debutantes are by Silvano, so likely to prefer further, but in such a shallow field, they could easily both run into the quartet imo
Selection: 1 from 10 – then 2,6,7 or 11 to fight out the minor placings

R2: Competitive handicap; smallish field so could be decided by tactics and pace; of the older fillies / mares I prefer Perfect Trust, who should hold most of these at the weights and also has a good record over track and trip – throw in Richard Fourie, so much to like; of the 2 younger fillies, on a line through Lucy the Pink, Lady Mistico should prove superior – she only gets 3.5 kgs though from PT, so I’m not sure if that would prove enough (even though the 3yr old crop so far has shown up their elder rivals at regular intervals)
Selection: 5 from 3, but all of them are capable of winning – so not a confident selection

R3: Looks a very shallow race, where according to the betting, only 3 horses are capable of winning; Sir William made a promising debut, and should show improvement in his 2nd outing to finish in front of Aussenkehr, who has not put of very encouraging times yet; big support for the 4yr-old Inside Story, and he would not have to be that good to beat these; if there is to be an upset (which I doubt), it could come from Aeroforce or Night Tiger, who have both shown some ability, while debutante Mo Cesar has a neat draw, but is not finding any betting support
Selection 1 from 4 from 7 with either 2,9 or 12 fighting out 4th

R4: Maiden Handicap (in effect) – even at the weight terms, I do make it between the son and daughter of Global View, (Global Forests and Global Avenue); Guy Alexander has put up one or two good efforts mixed up with some poor runs, with Bling in the irons it would be foolish to discount him; next best probably Quasimodo (moderate effort last time in a similar ‘special weights’ race) while Scallywag and Space Explorer (siblings were sprinters - so question marks about the trip) could surprise off bottom weight
Selection: 2/3/5 from 7; 6/8 could surprise

R5: Tough F&M handicap over the minimum trip; recent form seem to suggest that it lies between Different Face (has been struggling to get her head in front for over a year locally) and Jury Duty, while the recent Maiden winner City Scape seem next best – but all of them have a winning chance imo
Selection: None

R6: Middle Stakes for the males; Obvious 2 would be Van Hunks and Shavout; then quite a few (Silent War, The Futurist, Sugar Mountain) who tries 1600 again, but seem best over 1400; then we have Northern Song, who at best could be a threat, and Lion’s Head – returning after a break and probably better at Kenilworth, but having run 1,3 lengths behind Adios Amigo giving that one 3 kgs, can threaten at best; I Want It All also capable but riding arrangements seem to suggest VH is the better one today
Selection: 8/9 – but any of 2,4,5,7,10,11,13 could take advantage if those 2 fail

R7: I do think Somerset Maugham will take some beating here – should hold his main danger Baratheon at the weights; many probably better over further; Han Solo tries the trip and could be the dark horse if seeing it out
Selection: 2 from 6, 8 a possible danger

R8: First real prep of the season for the 3yr-olds who hope to go on to better things; Charles Dickens has a big reputation, but for me at the odds is worth opposing; Tough Terrain is match fit and does receive 3kgs from both CD and Dave the King – did not beat anything of note last time, but did win in a canter; should not be a lot between DtK and Iconic Destination; Narina Trogon on a line through Beerenberg comes right into it as well
Selection: 1, but at the odds I’m including all of 3,4,6 and 9

My cheeky P6: 4,7 x 2,3,5 x F x 8,9,13 x 2 x 1,3,4,6,9

Enjoy

Just my 1c worth...

Race 2 - 3 Lady Mistico
Race 5 - 5 Ma Black

All the best to fellow Clanners...and may the Boks win big...

Race 1, the favorite could and probably would win. But 3/10 is not attractive. Number 10, F Eight for me is a horse I'm taking for an each way. It's run track and from draw 10 before, although it ran 5th, the 4th horse l Slip Away came out and won in the next start, the 8th horse Wayward Girl who finished 7 lengths off ran a 1.4 length 3rd in its next start. The 2nd last off horsenin the race Simply Beautiful finished 13 lengths off and then ran on for a 3 length 5th in its next start.

I know F Eight still had a draw of 10 to deal with today, but at 12/10 a place is surely good enough for a 2nd or 3rd.

Race 1 What Now My Gal and Race 2 Lady Mistico both have good each way chances.

Race 1: I'm having an E/W on #5 at 25-1.