HOLLYWOODBETS DURBANVILLE 19 OCTOBER

COMPUTAFORM: aztabstorage.blob.core.windows.net/tabon...formSA/HOLLYWOODBETS DURBANVILLE@2022.10.19.pdf

some thoughts on the card
will avoid the 2 odds and try to beat them
william rufus race 3 , flew up from an impossible position last time and if sitting a bit closer to the pace will take some beating today
innamorare race 5 , looks a horse to follow and if so should beat this field
my 2 bankers on the day

1000m draw results at DURBANVILLE.
by Warren Grobler|Published 19 Oct 2022 7:10 am

There have been 8 races over 1000m since racing started at Durbanville on the 07/09/2022. I stated before that meeting that I would be looking to oppose horses drawn 8 or wider. The winners of these 8 races have come from the following draws:

2 – 1 winner

3- 4 winners

4- 3 winners

Field sizes over the 1000m have been bigger than in previous seasons, so it’s made it really tough for horses with wide draws.

The previous 49 races over this CD over the last 3 seasons have produced winners from the following draws: (you need to note some fields were small and obviously did not have 12 runners)

1– 4 ; 2 – 8 ; 3 – 9 ; 4 7 ; 5 – 7 ; 6 – 6 ; 7 – 6 ; 8 – 0 ; 9 – 2 ; 10 – 0 ; 11 – 0 ; 12 – 0

The winners are quite evenly spread across draws 2-7, but note as I have stated previously in one of my assessments that the 1 draw has a well-below average number of winners for races run around a bend.

Unless you control draw stats for field size you cannot make a definitive statement about any draw. There is always a draw 1 in all races but there is not always a draw 12 in all races. The simple probability, on average, of a horse winning in a 6 horse field is 1 in 6, and 1 in 12 in a 12 horse field. It follows that a draw 12 will always have an implied chance of winning of 1-in -12 or worse, while draw 1 will almost always have, on average, a higher implied chance of winning, as invariably draw 1 will race in fields of less than 12 horses, on average. Even after controlling for field size, you will still likely find that low draws have a better chance of winning, but the implied probability of the higher draws will be higher than you originally expected, once controlled for field size. Draw stats without this control for field size will almost always under represent the chances of a horse winning from a high draw in a large field.

.....and further on draw stats....not all horses require an inside barrier draw....some prefer to be kept in deep cover and tuck in off the pace and swoop from the back of the field...a prime example is that run of Professor Snape last week....likewise a slow starter is doomed with a prime inside draw as often they are swamped at the jump and get trapped in the subsequent bustle for position....then there are those sorts with outstanding gate speed that are able to beat any draw ....therefore one has to have knowledge of the exceptions before relying on stats alone.....

Holtasoley: She will probably need the experience of a race.



Rubertas: He will really appreciate the extra step up and although drawn widest out we think he will have a winning chance. Good value at an O/P of 10/1.



Night Tiger: He has excuses last time but he’s ready to win now. Good Each Way chance here over further.



Canford Lights: Progressive type. Doing well at home include in everything.



Queen Of Sparta: Her work is very good . We hoping to bounce back with a big run this time. EW chance.



Perilla: Hoping for a good run in a competitive field, but we do have a draw to overcome.

DEEZ’S BEST BETS

R2 Strawberry Light
R4 Ponte Pietra
R7 Cattaleya

JACKPOT 5/6/10/8

By the time this meeting starts the punters will have done their cash punting Hong Kong and elsewhere with the bookies

Delay in uploading video for today’s selections

Link will be posted asap

In the meantime please look at the following notes:

Durbanville

Race 1

Daryn Burroughs PA

8 x 1 x 1 x 7 x 6 x 8 x 6

R500 (500x)

Darryl Maree PA

8 x 1 x 1 x 6,7 x 6 x 2,8 x 6

R400 (100x)

Darryl Maree Bipot

8 x 1 x 1 x 6,7 x 6,10 x 2,8

R400 (50x)

Race 2

Daryn Burroughs P6

1 x 1,3,5,6 x 2,6,7,8 x 3,4,6,8,10 x 8 x 1,3,4,6,8

R400

Darryl Maree P6

1 x 1 x 6,7 x 6,10 x 2,8 x 4,6

R320 (20x)

Race 3

Jackpot 1

1,3,5,6 x 2,6,7,8 x 3,4,6,8,10 x 2,8

R320 (2x)

Race 4

Jackpot 2

2,6,7,8 x 3,4,6,8,10 x 2,8 x 1,3,4,6,8

R200

Race 5

Darryl Maree

Win no. 6 Innamorare

Race 6

Daryn Burroughs

Wins no 8 Shantastic

Race 7

Quartet Boxed 1,3,4,6,8

R120


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