FAIRVIEW FRIDAY 28 OCTOBER - ALGOA CUP DAY

COMPUTAFORM: aztabstorage.blob.core.windows.net/tabon...RVIEW@2022.10.28.pdf

Phedra race 2 handihobbler has got to her now. JP to beat her

Interested to see how some of the Ex Paul peter runners go in PE.

Well certainly plenty inputs from the stables, should be a good days racing .

Hope Sultana runs well.
Green Mandarin also look for a big run.

Good Punting

My own analysis of the race with my odds/bookies' odds and comments:

Race 1 1200m MP (F&M)
1 TIDE IS HIGH [RFM+++ 245D CD GRP] 15-10/5.5-1* 40% SHOULD WIN THIS AFTER 2X GREAT CD

5 FLOWERS OF NIKE [RFM+++ CRS -DST] 6-1/18-10 14% MAIN CHALLENGER TO 1. DST?
10 KILMONIVAIG [1.5LBW -5R CRS] 7-1/5-1 12% CLOSE UP DEBUT BUT SMALL FIELD. 1 CAME OUT TO WIN. CHANCE
4 EMILY'S SPIRIT [RFM+++ -2SAL -10D] 8-1/3-1 11 EXC. FRM. ANTIVALUE (2SAL)
8 BURNING MOON [LRD DBT -10D CRS -HNG] 8-1/3-1 11% SOLID DEBUT IN FLD OF 11 3rd AHEAD OF #4 BUT HANGING. AV -10D
9 HAZY CRAZY NIGHT [78D LRD -PFM KEN] 10-1/13-1 9% MODERATE FORM BUT RESTED AND WILL IMPROVE. OUTSIDE CHANCE

6 KAROO MAGIC [MFM 35D CRS] 15-1 6% MODERATE FORM. PLACE AT BEST
2 TANGO MIST [-PFM -2SAL(21d) KEN] 15-1 6% POOR FORM. 2SAL
7 WHO ARE YOU [62D -PFM SCT] 30-1 3% CAN IMPROVE AFTER REST. PLACE AT BEST
12 WEEKEND IN SEATTLE [-PDB 42D] 50-1 2% SHORT REST MIGHT FRESHEN BUT VERY POOR DBT.
3 ZAYHAAN [FTS] CHECK BETTING
11 MASTER TIGRESS [FTS] CHECK BETTING

Tricky start to the first with several having chances, and a few coming off layoffs. That said, I favour #1 Tide is High who strippng fresh may win unopposed. R6.5 the win is very generous, in my opinion. She should be at R2.5 the win, by my reckoning.

My software's analysis is below (in ranking order for the win and the odds given by the software):

1 TIDE IS HIGH 285 4.93 85
4 EMILY’S SPIRIT 230 6.11 110
5 FLOWERS OF NIKE 185 7.59 70
8 BURNING MOON 160 8.78 65
7 WHO ARE YOU 130 10.81 50
6 KAROO MAGIC 120 11.71 25
2 TANGO MIST 105 13.38 30
9 HAZY CRAZY NIGHT 105 13.38 15
11 MASTER TIGRESS 85 16.53 15
3 ZAYHAAN
10 KILMONIVAIG
12 WEEKEND IN SEATTLE

.....tote seems to be playing up again.....

Friday 28 October 2022
Race 11 Minutes To Start
NO HORSE WIN PLACE
1 Tide Is High 2.60 1.10
2 Tango Mist 41.00 5.80
3 Zayhaan 32.30 5.80
4 Emily's Spirit 2.80 1.40
5 Flowers Of Nike 6.10 1.80
6 Karoo Magic 56.10 9.20
7 Who Are You 77.90 13.00
8 Burning Moon 7.50 2.00
9 Hazy Crazy Night 33.20 7.30
10 Kilmonivaig 13.40 3.30
11 Master Tigress 42.10 7.70
12 Weekend In Seattle 91.60 13.80
NETT POOLS
WN R156 673 PL R76 298
SW R59 767 EX R82 030
TF R115 955 QT R123 791
DB R17 223 P3 R35 213
JP R40 537 P6 R88 974
PA R79 278 BI R61 808

.....copied 13 min after race is run....

race 2 Phedra keeps winning but Civil Rights should give her a go at the weights
Race 3 Green Mandarin should win this Perfection the danger. Our boy, Fort Dawn is limited and I will be thrilled if he gets 4th.
Race 4 And We Dance has blossomed and can score her hattrick. Belle of Belize and Dame of Flames the main dangers.
race 5 Very competitive race. Bold Resolve and Moon Game are in good form, and Ferrari Ice and Legitimate have a shout at the weights with nice draws. Adios Amigos may be the best of the visitors. Mr Fitz has his first local run but can win on best KZN form.
race 6 Kyaya's Hope looks the best of the locals. Grinkov and Iconic Destination the best of the visitors. However, these young 3 yos can make dramatic improvement.
Race 7 At the weights I like Peace in Our World and Never Ending Rain- both at very generous odds but look to have the top weights held on recent runs. Follow the Star improved last time and if repeating can win for the girls. Plenty with chances, but those look the 3 value runners.
Race 8 Cliff Top and Cruise Control should fight it out. Whatever Next is very game but a big weight.
race 8 Looks very open. I like the chances of Globetonic at a nice price. Only given Mr66 for his win and must have good scope for improvement.