HOLLYWOODBETS KENILWORTH SATURDAY 19 NOVEMBER

I like a bit of montien race 1 thought 7s was a decent price after its debut run.Respect for Snaith and Crawford runners but they had enough chances.Both Snaith and Crawford are firing as well.Nice days racing.Lets see cousin casey today how good he is as i dont believe those 2 yo races in Durban say much abt a horses true ability. But he does look like a good horse in the making and i know stable rate him highly.

HOLLYWOODBETS PUNTERS CHALLENGE

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*HOLLYWOODBETS KENILWORTH*
*TODAY - 19/11/2022*
*1st Race - 12:40pm*

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CAP Race 1 BPT 2/1,3/2,3/8,11,13/7,8,9/8

Race 8: The Second Wave beat Surjay a few starts back over course and distance and that has come out to win a decent race last weekend , 3rd run back today surely some value @ 25/1 , danger for me is Poltergeist who is a bit in and out but if a going day should run very well here

Looks like they loaded a new version of WTW

Was a huge Cousin Casey fan when it ran in Durban but the break coupled with GVN not riding very well at the moment IMHO, my vote goes to Light Speed. A beast of a horse who's hard to peg back when in front. Interesting that De Melo chose to ride At My Command who's drawn out in the bush over Pas De Nom. Will be running on.

For me it's a race between Light Speed, Cousin Casey, Le Morne and At My Command.

Cool day for this time of year with a light headwind. We had some rain last night which may take a little of the sting out the ground, but course should still be fast. This is the first meeting back on the new course with the longer run in, so those that come from behind will have a better chance.

race 1Quite a strong maiden, and all of Royal Port Louis, Wylie Riley, Nevada King have solid form. Aspect has run below his KZN juvenile form this season but can also win. I agree with Pilot Officer that Montien could be the value play. He put up a very good debut and is bred for the extra.
Race 2 Chansonette is the one to beat, and has had the benefit of a run whereas Marina and Silver Darling come back from breaks. The low weighted Winter Scout and Kailene can cause the upset getting 12kg from the class fillies.
race 3 Allende is overdue her maiden win and last time was beaten by the handicap conditions. Possible banker. Gift From Heaven has been priced up second favourite, but she was flattered last time getting 10kg from Allende, so I give her no chance at all at level weights. Grand Orecchie is the main danger. Jazbella ran well below best last time but can improve although a tough task from the draw.
Our filly Sunlit From Heaven has been improving steadily. She probably wants even further, and does not have the best of draws, but should enjoy the long run in and I expect her to be in the money.
Race 4 A very difficult MSW. Ready or Not, Selukwe and Mohandas are the better horses, but have to give weight to less talented rivals. Our filly Soft Touch tries this trip for the first time, and does not have the best of draws, but can run into the money off a lowish weight.
race 5 A competitive handicap. Peut Etre Moi ran her best race this distance, and is another value bet at 8/1. Official Secret, Fleeting, Academic Gold, Time Flies and Evening Primrose must all go into exotics.
Race 6 It is a concern that the Glen Kotzen stable have not had a winner in CT for the past month. If he is fit and well then Cousin Casey is the obvious choice. If he fails, then Light Speed, Dave the King, Port Louis, Le Morne and At My Command can pick up the pieces, and there are a number of others that could improve to feature.
race 7 Hitthemhardsunshine gets a 4kg turnaround with Trompie, and should also prefer the 1200m. He is another possible banker. Trompie and Iconic Destination are the main dangers.
Race 8 A very difficult race to end the day and just about anything could win. My shortlist is Sun Dazed, King Regent, Let it Burn, Masked Vigilante and Fort Red

.....I really rate this relatively untested Le Morne...that steps up from a lowly MR74 handicap into a GR2 and with a horrific 13 draw.....and oddly had drawn 3 in all 3 of his wins.....well he has that same lucky 3 in the draw box again ....but with a 1 in front of it..:S ..and hopefully will be in the 1st 3 today....

Craig Pienaar wrote:

Race 8: The Second Wave beat Surjay a few starts back over course and distance and that has come out to win a decent race last weekend , 3rd run back today surely some value @ 25/1 , danger for me is Poltergeist who is a bit in and out but if a going day should run very well here

Agree on The Second Wave - good each-way imo

As mentioned by a few, a return to the Summer Course (although Johnno Snaith seems a bit confused on this specific detail), so front runners probably won't have it that easy - depending on the wind, of course - thoughts ...

R1: Both Nevada King and Royal Port Louis have had a few chances (and RPL beat NK when they met), I agree that Montien looks good value (due to a un-fashionable jockey booking); only other ones catching the eye are Aspect (probably more suited to 1400) and the KZN visitor Wylie Riley - I did not fancy the van Zyl raiders a couple of weeks back - but they had a winner and a good second (if I remember correctly) - so obviously not to be ignored

R2: Chansonette all the rage, and let's face it - only the lack of winners from the Nel / v Niekerk combo prevents her from trading in the red - both Marina and Silver Darling are returning from breaks and both seem better over more ground - so maybe the danger could be Kailene - she does hold SD on some runs

R3: Everything points to Allende - imo the dangers are Sunlit From Heaven and Jazzbella - but both those have wide draws to overcome

R4: Maiden 'Special Weights' - which in practice means a Maiden Handicap - so quite a few should be considered imo - bar the 3 top ones in the betting, I think Space Explorer at the weights could be a good roughie to include

R5: Very open F&M Handicap - at the weights I think Peut Etre Moi is good value

R6: Has Cousin Casey trained on - if not he could be in trouble here - Light Speed seems very capable, but there are quite a few others including Famous and Rich (pole position and no stamina doubts), Allez Morris (Le Morne does seem the stable elect) and the poorly drawn KZN visitor Money Heist and At My Command (for me also could be better over less ground), who needs consideration

R7: Hithemhardsunshine does seem the right one here - but this could be precisely the type of race that the NHA was referring to with the warning 'don't take official ratings at face value' - the most runs by any of the contestants, are only 8 - so plenty of improvement likely for all of them

R8: Proverbial minefield to finish - as mentioned I think The Second Wave is a nice price for an each-way bet, I am also including Fort Red in the PA

Enjoy

Money down and the first race favourite is home , let's hope this is a day for the punters

.....the drought has really broken for Greg Bortz ....he will no longer need Waze to find the winners box.....:lol: