Re:Turffontein Saturday - April Fools Day

Craig Pienaar wrote:

Good win for the cape horse , Anfields Rocket didn't seem to have his usual kick over the 1600m

Craig Pienaar wrote:

Good win for the cape horse , Anfields Rocket didn't seem to have his usual kick over the 1600m

Justanotherpunter wrote:

Frodo wrote:

Justanotherpunter wrote:

Easy p6 today, two bankers Good Council and None Other. :whistle:

Would like to hear your reasoning on None Other reversing the form with Bless My Stars

Whilst she went to the front and was beaten into 3rd by the closers, I think she simply got outsprinted by the first two past the post in the last 300m. Watching the replay I think she starts building momentum again in the last 150m. By a G1 winner over 2000m who's produced a Kentucky Derby winner and out of a Dynasty mare, I think she is going to relish this trip.

Whilst Bless My Stars is out of a Silvano mare and obviously it's not impossible that she stays, Gimmethegreenlight produces 83% of his winners up to 1600m, so I am just not convinced that this filly really wants it this far. I think she's too short in the market and that None Other is a far better value E/W play at 5-1+

Frodo wrote:

Justanotherpunter wrote:

Frodo wrote:

Justanotherpunter wrote:

Easy p6 today, two bankers Good Council and None Other. :whistle:

Would like to hear your reasoning on None Other reversing the form with Bless My Stars

Whilst she went to the front and was beaten into 3rd by the closers, I think she simply got outsprinted by the first two past the post in the last 300m. Watching the replay I think she starts building momentum again in the last 150m. By a G1 winner over 2000m who's produced a Kentucky Derby winner and out of a Dynasty mare, I think she is going to relish this trip.

Whilst Bless My Stars is out of a Silvano mare and obviously it's not impossible that she stays, Gimmethegreenlight produces 83% of his winners up to 1600m, so I am just not convinced that this filly really wants it this far. I think she's too short in the market and that None Other is a far better value E/W play at 5-1+

Well done JAP

Frodo wrote:

A little editing on Saturday morning:

R1: Sure hope that Cosmic Star can win the first and that the presenter on the track asks the v Vuuren stable about their expectations about Puerto Manzono and Bingwa - but somehow I have my doubts on CS winning - I think a good each-way start is Mayor of Merrivale - and I expect the Fortune stable to have a good day

R2: Very competitive - don't really fancy anything

R3: I do expect Big Burn to bounce back - but that last run is a little worrying and although it is a small field, the inside draw is also not in her favor - also not sure if Fourie opted for Danilo .... so all in all some doubt; for me both Master Archie (big weight) and Bartholdi (needs a fast gallop which looks likely) - Winter Stories could be a value inclusion in the trifecta - needs to return to his best form, but Muzi and interesting booking

Did a little early studying ....

R4: Open start - first choice for me is Supreme Quest - but none of them can be left out if you want to be sure to survive the first leg of the P6
Morning light has not bring any clarity for me - even Global Impact who ran close behind Royal Victory in his debut not to be taken lightly; Bard of Avon cherry ripe - I'm taking the field in the P6

R5: 1100m - might be a touch sharp for Gobsmacked and Maharanee and a touch far for Far Away Winter, Miss Daisy is 7kgs better off with Mercantour who won nicely over the track and trip last time - those seem the principles with Quantum Theory imo
Mercantour finding market support - so definite runner; looks like Maharanee is not fancied ; I'm still including Miss Daisy

R6: I'm guessing that Bingwa has been primed for this so is my first choice; Under Your Spell was imo not given a great ride last time, but still won and must be a big danger; don't think the 3 yr olds are up to it at these weights; Trip of Fortune a dark horse, but has an iffy draw, while Golden Ducat may need this (but Fourie rides ) and also an iffy draw - one last chance maybe for MK who tries blinkers
No clues yet from the betting

R7: I think the Derby is open - not sure that the best weighted runners are sure to get the trip, which makes it competitive; the lower rated runners are out at the weights but imo suited better to the trip - I think African Torrent is big value at the price
Big support for Son of Raj - still like the look of African Torrent and even Top Sail who are both weighted to run close to SoR

R8: One has to take a chance somewhere, and I think Bless My Stars has a lot going for her - beat most of these last time and I'm betting she will get the trip being out of a staying SIlvano mare
Nothing has changed my mind yet

R9: This will be tactical race; a lot points to Nebraas, but he has not won for more than 300 days; Shangani looks held by Nebraas, but is versatile and can run from the front or come from behind, so would be a bit stupid to ignore his chances; Flashy Apache gets a whopping 10kgs from Shangani, and could be a danger if he stays the trip, while I personally can't leave out Raisethehallelujah - those look the principles imo
Sticking with the 3 mentioned

R10: Got to like Storm Dictator on his last run; roughie that catches my eye is Western Wishes - Bling now rides

Enjoy