HOLLYWOODBETS KENILWORTH SATURDAY 20 MAY 2023

COMPUTAFORM az-pgl-dsi-ag-cdn-aztabstorage.4racing.c...WORTH@2023.05.20.pdf

R5, a lot to like about Final Edition (9/2). The horse who he finished ahead of last time out by 1.25 lengths, Rainbow Colours, finished 0.30 of a length behind Green Mandarin (3/1) next time out. Favourite, Marshall Field (5/2), has had both Fourie and de Melo have two goes each at trying to get this one into the no. 1 box, and couldn’t get it right. May prefer further. Fourie has opted to stick with Green Manadrin. Final Edition has improved run to run since returning from a break and does look the most likely to make further improvement. I make him the one they all have to beat.

R8, Rockpool (14/10), beat Without Question in the Politician Stakes at level weights. Without Question is the joint second favourite in the Hollywoodbets Durban July ante-post market. The drift in the Derby, 11/2 out to 25/2, indicates he wasn’t fancied. Second favourite and stable companion, Hoedspruit, going to trust Fourie’s judgement that Rockpool has the better winning chance of the two.

I cannot remember the last time I won however no ticket no chance.

CT has not been kind to me either.


We box on.

Race 4 Apple Catcher

Race 5 Marshall Field

Race 6 Go likeFlo


Thats the patent.


And for glory is the above multiples with the below Race 7 Happy Chance and Race 3 one cannot ignore the money for Questioning.

How many winners can top jock Richard Fourie have today ?

An interesting card today. Gentle tailwind and the course is good. On the winter course so front runners and good draws must be respected in races beyond sprints.
Race 1Captain Arrow looks the right one. On breeding should enjoy the step up to 1200m and has strong form. Coastal Commander and Harajuku good debuts and should be better with the experience, but neither of those races looks as strong as the fields that CA has met.
Race 2 Of the raced runners, Oni -San looks the right one despite the draw down the outside.
race 3 The 2yo William West takes on the older Cafe Culture and there should not be much between them. Money and talk for the first timer Questioning.
Race 4 Open race, and Mike Stewart a very strong hand and any of his 4 could win. I have Lady Renee and expecting a good run despite the draw. Apple Catcher has been priced up favourite- two useful runs and then flopped at Durbanville. Has to give weight so one that can be taken on.
race 5 Final Edition has improved every start and I agree with Bayern he looks the right one. Green Mandarin, Marshall Field, Run Rudolf Run and Gimme the Best are the dangers.
Race 6 Very open. Blind Faith improved markedly in a level weights Maiden last time and is probably the one to beat at the weights if repeating. Fallo Ancora and Go Like Flo are consistent. Flirty Dancer returns from a long break but is capable at best. Beau Kala has run two poor races but can pop up if regaining best form.
Race 7 Happy Chance has strong form and is better off at the weights with Kwinta's Light since beating her last time. Gold Poker Game poor draw but is capable. Going Up looks the pick of the older fillies and on breeding should have no problem with the step up in trip and gets the plum draw.
race 8 Pomp and Power ran a tame race last time, but if that has brought him on then he is well weighted and will prefer the extra 200m There isn't much between the 3yos, with a preference for Rockpool, but Itsrainingwilliam and King Regent are both capable. Hoedspruit and Gem King are best of the other older horses.
Race 9 A competitive handicap, but Dance Variety did not get penalised although he ran a couple of lbs above his rating last time, so he is first choice. Night Tiger the main danger, but the lightly raced Lunch Money could be anything
Race 10 The official MRs are misleading here, as Night Ruler ran 5lb above his rating last time. Sudden Song is also better than rated, and Royal Watch a bit above his rating. Night Ruler should win, from Sudden Song and Royal Watch, but Montien could still have scope for improvement.

Dave Scott wrote:

How many winners can top jock Richard Fourie have today ?

6 favourites and 3 second- favourites
I think his best winning chances are William West; Rockpool and Night Ruler
good place chances on all his other runners.

Best bets for multiples:
Captain Arrow
Oni-San
Final Edition
Happy Chance
Night Ruler

I think an interesting meeting for a couple of reasons; firstly the Snaith three-some in the Legal Eagle Stakes - originally when the declarations came out, Fourie was carded to ride Hoedspruit - now he has switched allegiance to Rockpool - not good news for those (like me) that took the A/P for the July on Hoedspruit - also from the betting for today it indicates that Rockpool is the right one - or does the market just follow Fourie's judgement - who is not wrong too often; imo I now think that Hoedspruit might not get into the July (depending on what happens today, of course); Pomp & Power's place is safe in the July bar any mishap - but jockey arrangements today does not point to him being ready yet; Itsrainingwilliam (half-sister to Rain in Holland) should also be right there at the weights and I think on breeding there is every chance that he will see out the 1800 - definitely an interesting race

Secondly, I see that they are running on the Winter Course (did not pay much attention during the week, so not sure if this is the first meeting this year on the Winter Course); in my view the course favors front-runners, who should be assisted even more by a predicted tail-wind

Enjoy

Race8:I am boxing Snaith horses for the quartet 4x6x9x10

Winner looks like he was dropped into the race when the rest became one paced