HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

  • Bob Brogan
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HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

2 years 2 weeks ago
#865340
WSB Legal Eagle Stakes (Grade 3)
ITSRAININGWILLIAM remains unchanged on a mark of 109 after he captured the Grade 3 WSB Legal Eagle Stakes over 1800m on the winter course at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday 20 May. It was in fact ITSRAININGWILLIAM himself who was deemed to make for the best line horse, hence his unchanged rating. In assessing the race this way 3rd finisher ROCKPOOL also runs to his rating, leaving him unchanged on a mark of 109 and effectively making him a line horse as well.

The only ratings increase was for runner-up MASTER REDOUTE, who goes up from 99 to 105. However, the specific conditions of the race do not allow for a greater increase than six pounds for the first three finishers and as such MASTER REDOUTE had to be capped at 105 even though he actually achieved a mark of 107.

Similarly, the race conditions allow for no ratings increase at all beyond the first three finishers and so 4th placed KING REGENT remains unchanged on a mark of 103 although actually running to a rating of 108.

The only drop was for POMP AND POWER, who is down slightly from 124 to 123.



WSB Ladies Mile (Listed)
GOING UP has had her rating raised from 105 to 107 after winning the Listed Ladies Mile for fillies and mares over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. The Handicappers were of the view that 2nd placed WHO DO YOU LOVE would not have run worse here than when she achieved a mark of 100 in finishing third behind GOING UP in a handicap in late January and used that performance to rate the Ladies Mile. Accordingly, WHO DO YOU LOVE goes up from 98 to 100.

There were no other ratings’ increases, but four horses received a drop. DO ANGELS CRY is down from 96 to 93, BROADWAY GIRL goes to 96 from 101, YOUNG LOVE is down from 95 to 92, and lastly ECHO OF LIFE is down slightly from 100 to 99.



WSB East Cape Derby (Listed)
MACHETE MAN has had his rating raised from 86 to 95 after he landed the Listed WSB East Cape Derby over 2200m on the Polytrack at Fairview on Friday. The race had been intended for 2400m on the grass course the previous Friday, but most of that meeting was abandoned owing to inclement weather.

The Handicappers were of the view that 6th placed ZATARA MAGIC made for the most suitable line horse, which leaves him unchanged on a mark of 91.

Runner-up QUASIMODO has had his rating elevated from 80 to 94. QUASIMODO had in fact achieved a rating of 92 when finishing fourth in his previous start, but no ratings increase for placed horses was allowed in that race and so QUASIMODO remained on a mark of 80 for the Derby, where he confirmed that performance and where his rating can now be raised to what he actually achieved.

There were increases also for 3rd placed HEATHCLIFF, who is up from 92 to 94, while 4th finisher CHERRY ANO is up from 88 to 93. No horses were given a rating’s drop from this race.


Enquiries:
The Handicapping Team

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  • Sylvester
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Re: HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

2 years 2 weeks ago
#865345
Pomp and power a whole 1 point wow.
EC Derby. They more used the Derby trial with their adjustments than they did this race. Line horse has only won over 1200 . if anything Perfection makes a better line horse. but that would screw their narrative

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  • Frodo
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Re: HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

2 years 2 weeks ago
#865346
Pomp and power a whole 1 point wow.
EC Derby. They more used the Derby trial with their adjustments than they did this race. Line horse has only won over 1200 . if anything Perfection makes a better line horse. but that would screw their narrative

I wonder if there is a 'rule' stating that a horse can be dropped by 1 point - even if he runs 10 points or more below his rating - either drop him more - or leave him the same.

For me Itsrainingwilliam ran below his rating - maybe better shorter :unsure: but I can't see a well-exposed older horse improving by that much

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  • PeterD
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Re: HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

2 years 2 weeks ago
#865364
Hi Frodo
I think that the handicapper has got this one right, as the progressive 3yos filled 3 of the top four places. Master Redoute ran above his rating last time against Navy Strength as well (102). He is a November foal and as such still a youngish 4yo that has been running over further and so still entitled to improve.
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  • Frodo
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Re: HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

2 years 2 weeks ago - 2 years 2 weeks ago
#865366
PeterD - we all have our opinions - with respect, you say that Master Redoute ran above his rating last time against Navy Strength - but Navy Strength is currently rated 102 - MR finished 0.75 lengths behind NS - so 101 ? And now he has improved (according to the Handicapper) to 107 ?

For interest - these are the ratings that I recorded for the Legal Eagle -
It'srainingwilliam - 105
Master Redoute - 101
Rockpool - 106
King Regent - 103
Baratheon - 100
Pomp & Power - 111
Gem King - 103
Cat Daddy - 100
Han Solo - 100
Last edit: 2 years 2 weeks ago by Frodo.

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  • Mac
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Re: Re:HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

2 years 2 weeks ago
#865367
In the days of yore a very good boss once said to me “rather be roughly right than precisely wrong”.


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