HOLLYWOODBETS SCOTTSVILLE SUNDAY 20 AUGUST

Created a Monte Carlo simulation for my rankings' input values, running 20 000 trials per run with 50x iterations so = 1000 000. Yesterday didn't have much early luck on at TUR and DBV except last two races of DBV where I had the 40-1 grey and the other winner called Red something at 10-1. Saved the day with some solid profit. Simulations are not a guarantee because they depend on the usefulness of the input values. Like the old adage goes GIGO (garbage in garbage out).

Here is Scottsville Race 2 with my handicapping program input values which I then simmed (unraced horses excluded unfortunately, which could affect the final outcome).



I put a couple of bob on the #5 Dressedtothenines. 28-1 can't hurt.

If anyone wants me to run a sim for them based on their ranking values for any race at Scotsville, PM me. Values could be anything aggregated. The overall total does not matter. Just the values for each horse. So not the rank 1,2,3,4 but the values you used to arrive at your final rankings. You don't have to disclose your handicapping method/values just the final values. I will run the sim for you, private message me. One condition: I will post the table here on the forum 10 min after I send it to you in case there is some value you want to exploit at a price, first.

DISCLAIMER: There are NO guarantees, no promises, just a sophisticated simulation that spits out FAIR ODDS and my own version of ACCEPTABLE ODDS that is a minimum 50% above FAIR ODDS value (you can decide on your own acceptable value odds). See my example above for Race 2. This is for fun and there are no promises you will make money. You use the information at your own risk. 50% overlay (above my FAIR ODDS calculation) is the compensation I need for finding a value bet(s). Some players are willing to take less. I need to offset Tote takeout (35%?) and/or bookies tax of +-6%.

R1- LAST ONE STANDING

R3- ANCIENT WORLD/BILLY OF TEA/STREETSHAVENONAME

SWINGS.TRF.QRT
4.6.5.10.11.3

R4- SEA GODDESS

R5- SUN BLUSHED

R6- SWISS PARADE

R7- LUCKY MISS/KAILENE

R8- RODRIGUEZ/THUNDER MASALA

GOODLUCK all

GORGEOUS GUY

Here is a simulation based on Computaform Ratings for Race 2 (raced horses only).

Took the scratchings out #s 17,15 (still using Computaform ratings):

Future Flo...ew but nothing stood out for me

Future Flo the one for me in the 1st , doubles with Cue the Rebel in the 2nd

Based on WSB odds at time of writing 12h20 and using Computaform Ratings in my 1 000 000 sim trial, the value bets here are 13,7 at 15.0 and 12.0 both above their fair value odds and acceptable value odds and with Computaform ratings close to the top 2.

Fire Tonic... An extreme outside place

OMG....
And that was the first leg of the bipot too.
Well surely can't get any worse but you never know with KZN racing.
Bipot nearly R50 after the first leg
247 000 of the 252 000 tickets gone first leg