Anyone taking the 7/1 Green With Envy...

For the Hollywoodbets Durban July?

It was 33/1 to 40/1 when the ante post betting came out.

Although, the bookies percentage was dismal, Green With Envy price was an anomaly and was worth taking a risk on it. I did mention Green With Envy price on another thread for the July and after that posting it shorten to 14/1.

 

As I said at the time, it's only dismal if you can't find value.. And there is always value to be found

I think it depends on what rating the wise men give him after Saturday - he was 110 on Saturday; I see my fancy William Iron Arm got a hefty increase and is now 116 - so if Green With Envy is conservatively treated, he might get weight from William, so he might have a chance - however I still prefer William at current odds - might shorten depending how he runs on Saturday in the Classic 

please can someone explain how these hobo's( bookmakers), pre nominations nogal, can have the the top 5 in the betting between 5/1 and 7/1 , 4 month before an event.

its impossible to build a book with so much of risk and uncertainty involved with them telling us that there are only 5 horses in the race.

they have killed the game.

everything in their favour.

i wouldn't be taking these prices on the morning of the durban july.

how can they justify the price of Mucho Dinero ( although i like it ), i can never be taking 6/1 this horse.
16/1 is probably a fair price.

they are factoring events before an eventuality which is totally wrong and biased.

at these prices they have ruined the july book.

then they just continue to drop prices as the other horses win their respective races and WILL never adjust the rest of horses thats priced up near the top.

so of this base, percentages will continue to grow in their favour.

then the other thorn of same horse doubles will continue to exasperate the percentages.

the best i could do on Saturday was to take the double green with envy into sandringham summit(july) and Sandringham Summit (this saturday) onto green with envy (july)

did these bets on Saturday.

ill take a hottie on saturday into william iron arm.

at this early stage the daily news winner will come from 1 of this 3 as i see it , and 1 of them will be new july favourite and then trade off.

Imo the same horse (be it Sandringham Summit, or Green With Envy or whatever) will not win the Daily News AND the July; one big factor is what the plans are for See It Again - if he does run in the July, at current ratings he would be top weight - giving 3 kgs to At My Command and a whopping 5 kgs to Rascallion (not sure what the plans are as I can't find him in the current A/P betting) who beat him in the MET giving him 0.5 kgs, with the 3yr-olds bar SS (the 'best in' at around 53 kgs) probably coming in under sufferance and Green With Envy (see he was raised to 119) on Handicap terms at around 51 kgs.   

If See It Again does not run, the whole ball game changes