Merit Ratings post Daily News race day

Green with Envy 127 from 123
Flag Man 126 from 92
Barbaresco 122 from 109

Hold My hand 114 from 108 (bit harsh)

 

So given the ratings, Barbaresco is now the value at 40/1 - only 2,6 lengths behind GWE (and carried wide) and will receive 2kgs from GWE - never thought he would stay - but one has to think that he stayed on well enough; ironically GWE's last two wins has cost him 2,5 kgs ..... jockey arrangements will be interesting 

What price is Flagman for July after Saturday?

Could be the lurker in the pack .He still   may be ahead of the handicapper if there is still plenty more improvement to come ? 

The race will answer that question. 

Dazza wrote:

What price is Flagman for July after Saturday?

Could be the lurker in the pack .He still   may be ahead of the handicapper if there is still plenty more improvement to come ? 

The race will answer that question. 

11/1 3rd favourite

Looking forward to seeing Flag Man against some of the older brigade. That turn of foot was ELECTRIC.

Though I would say that is the steepest increase for a horse not winning a race I can recall.

On a line using Pure Predator and Mid Winter WInd, I'd rate GWE (and Flag Man) at around 120 - and Barbaresco at around 116.

In other news, I see that Frances Ethel is going to the States and won't run in the July ....

How often do the handicappers feel that they MUST increase ratings especially since it was a Group 1? Results in inflated ratings for other horses as a consequence...

And from @heinrich's analysis, the pace probably influenced the outcome and relative placings...

Frodo wrote:

On a line using Pure Predator and Mid Winter WInd, I'd rate GWE (and Flag Man) at around 120 - and Barbaresco at around 116.

In other news, I see that Frances Ethel is going to the States and won't run in the July ....

If Purple Pitcher has an "easy" prep run going into the July and remains 120 he will be getting weight from GWE and FM. Will be interesting to see who rides him assuming Kabelo sticks with Winchester Mansion?




 

PRESS RELEASE

HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

Daily News 2000 (Grade 1)

GREEN WITH ENVY was adjusted to a rating of 127 from 123 following his success in the Grade 1 Daily News 2000 over 2000m on the turf track at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday 25 May.   The Handicappers believed that MID WINTER WIND made for the most suitable line horse here and his rating remained unchanged on 116. It was also considered that MID WINTER WIND was attempting the 2000m trip for the first time in his career and felt the evidence suggested that he saw out the extra distance comfortably. MID WINTER WIND did appear to at least confirm his 5th place in the Grade 2 KZN Guineas in this event when also finishing in 5th place. Furthermore, the Handicappers also observed his official sectional time (courtesy of Hollywoodbets) found on the gallop.co.za website is as follows

:Horse Form – Mid Winter Wind – (gallop.co.za)

 

As is evident above, MID WINTER WIND produced a 800m to finish time of 47.951 in the KZN Guineas(1600m) and 47.861 in the Daily News 2000 (2000m) and a 400m to finish time of 23.159 in the KZN Guineas (1600m) and 23.274 in the Daily News 2000 (2000m). Given the factual evidence at hand, the Handicappers feel that MID WINTER WIND comfortably stayed the distance as a matter of fact.

In rating the race using MID WINTER WIND as the line, PURE PREDATOR runs to a rating of 116 which is a rating he achieved in the Grade 1 SA Classic and the Grade 1 SA Derby, this effectively makes him a line horse as well and there are certainly no stamina doubts about this horse who has been a model of consistency.

The previously unexposed runner up, FLAG MAN was adjusted to 126 from 92. His improvement here can be attributed to the fact that he has gone from winning a Middle Stakes race to narrowly losing a Grade 1 event. The 3rdplace finisher, BARBARESCO was increased to 122 from 109 and has also recorded his 1st Grade 1 placing. These adjustments placed the top 3 horses in the correct Handicap rankings with PURE PREDATOR (119) and MID WINTER WIND (116).

HLUHLUWE was given a 1-point drop from 117 to 116 so that he is not rated higher than the 116 rated MID WINTER WIND. The only other horse to have received a change in rating was WILLIAM IRON ARM who was dropped to 114 from 117.

Please note that the connections of the winner, GREEN WITH ENVY, have lodged an appeal against the merit rating adjustment he received for this event. The NHA will do a press release after the appeal is heard by an independent appeals panel.

Tabgold Woolavington 2000 (Grade 1)

SILVER SANCTUARY remained unaltered on a rating of 116 after she won the Grade 1 Woolavington 2000 for fillies and mares over 2000m at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday.  Here, the Handicappers believed that the winner made for the most suitable line horse, hence her unchanged rating.

In arriving at this decision, the Handicappers took into consideration that this race was run at a very sedate pace, this is evident in the fact that the time recorded for this event was 2.17 seconds slower than the time recorded for the Grade 1 Daily News 2000.

Runner-up HOLD MY HAND, who was the only runner to receive a rating increase in this event, was raised from 108 to 114.

The only horse to receive a drop in ratings was MY SOUL MATE, who dropped from 115 to 113.

Lonsdale Stirrup Cup (Handicap) (Listed)

DOWN TO BUSINESS has had his rating raised from 98 to 101 after winning the Listed Lonsdale Stirrup Cup (handicap) over 2400m at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday.  The Handicappers believed that the runner-up RAISEAHALLELUJAH made for the most suitable line horse, leaving him unchanged on 99.  In assessing the race this way 3rd finisher BARATHEON ran to a mark of 98 and 4th finisher INDIAN OCEAN ran to a mark of 95 and were both accordingly adjusted to their performance figures.

The only other horse to receive an increase in ratings was PIRATE PRINCE, who was adjusted to 92 from 89.

Two horses received drops to their ratings, NEBRAAS was dropped to 106 from 108 and GOOD COUNCIL was dropped to 103 from 105.

Pocket Power Stakes (Grade 3)

THE FUTURIST was adjusted to a rating of 104 from 98 after emphatically winning the Grade 3 Pocket Power Stakes over 1950m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth (winter course) on Sunday.

The Handicappers felt that OTTO LUYKEN made for the most suitable line horse here and his rating remained unchanged on 97. The winner was protected by a 6-point merit rating cap due to the specific race conditions which state that the first three finishers may receive up to a maximum of a 6-point increment.

In any case, the Handicappers were not going to take the 9,25 lengths winning margin literally given this horse’s overall profile and the probability that THE FUTURIST may well be flattered by an enterprising ride.

Three horses received a drop in ratings, NAVY STRENGTH was dropped to 101 from 102, FLOWER OF SAIGON dropped to 102 from 104 and FUTURE PRINCE was restored to 95 from 100 after failing to confirm the increment he received for his performance in the Grade 3 Variety Club Mile.

Stormsvlei Stakes (Listed)

RED PALACE remained unchanged on a mark of 108 after leading from start to finish to land the Listed Stormsvlei Stakes over 1800m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth (winter course) on Sunday.

PRINCESS IZZY was deemed to make for the most suitable line horse and she remained unchanged on a rating of 99. The runner up, LOVE IS A ROSE was increased from 101 to 104 after shouldering top weight while the 3rdplaced TIME FOR LOVE was adjusted to 94 from 88. TIME FOR LOVE actually ran to a higher mark but her rating was capped to a 6 point increase due to the specific condition that state the first three finishers may only incur and increment of up to 6 points.

The following horses received drop in ratings, BROADWAY GIRL is down to 87 from 88, WINDRUNNER dropped to 83 from 86 and DOUBLE CHECK dropped to 85 from 88.

Milkwood Stakes (Listed)

PARIS LASS received an increase from 94 to 103 after she won the Listed Milkwood Stakes for fillies and mares over 1000m on the Polytrack at Fairview on Friday.  The race was originally scheduled for the turf course but was moved to the Polytrack because of weather-related reasons for the 2nd year running.

In assessing the race, the Handicappers felt that 3rd placed GIMME’S LASSIE made for the most suitable line horse, and she remained on a rating of 101. In rating the race this way, the runner-up THREE ROCKS ran below her rating hence her unchanged rating of 109.

The only other horse to receive and increase in the ratings was MISS GREENLIGHT, who was given a marginal increase from 88 to 92.

Three horses received drops to their ratings, GOLDEN PACIFIC was dropped to 100 from 101, ANCIENT EPIC was dropped from 90 to 88 and AUNTY LIZZY was dropped from 88 to 86.


Enquiries:

The Handicapping Team 

NO....Mr Handicapper.....NNNOOOOO!!!!!

First I'll post the SECTIONAL ANALYSIS of both the Guineas and the DAILY NEWS....

RAW   TIMES

RACE                 1st  200m              1st  400m         1st  600m        1st 800m         L400m          L200m         L100m

GUINEAS             12.68                      24.34                  36.07                47.80            23.49            11.82             6.04

DAILY NEWS        13.42                     25.61                  37.89                50.67            22.51             11.47            5.88

Without par times this Info is almost useless. It's 2 different distances run on different days with different track conditions. EARLY PACE (EP) is always slower as we go up in distances,generally! Meaning that the further in distance we go....the slower the EP. So HOW can we compare these 2 races? Honestly speaking....WE CANT!!!!! But we can DEFNITELY Compare the PERFORMANCE OF EACH HORSE,INDIVIDUALLY within the races itself.We do that by using the FINISHING SPEEDS (FS) of the horses and comparing it to The OVERALL RACE FINISHING SPEED (ORFS) of the race itself. To understand VS you can gladly read up about it in SIMON ROWLANDS booklet about SECTIONAL TIMING (ST). Admittedly,it took me a long time to 'fully understand' it but still I would say I'm still learning everyday (or try to atleast). I still do about 1 - 3 hours research on the topic daily (or as much as times allow me). That it is of great benefit is no doubt to me and understanding it would improve your success rate tremendously.

FINISHING SPEEDS

RACE                                  L600%             L400%                   L200%                   L100%

GUINEAS  ORFS:               104.38%          102.86%               102.21%                100.01%

GREEN WITH ENVY:      105.02%           106.53%               104.69%                103.25%

SAN SUMMIT:                 104.14%           106.03%              102.78%                 100.22%

MID WINTER WIND:        102.95%          104.70%               101.71%                  100.53%

Now if we Look at the FS of MWW and compare it with the OFS of the race itself....u can see he was very much on par with the race FS itself the L400M meaning he was STAYING ON EASILY even thou the 2 above him are in a league of their own. Next we look at the DAILY NEWS

RACE                                    L600%                L400%              L200%             L100%

DAILY NEWS ORFS               106.13%            109.89%          107.83%          105.17%

GREEN WITH ENVY            108.80%            110.08%          107.82%          105.17%

FLAG MAN                            106.94%            109.80%          108.12%           106.27%

BARBERESCO                      107.61%             109.69%          107.64%          105.18%

MID WINTER WIND             105.84%              107.10%          104.98%          103.67%

A LOT can be learned from the above....Let me Look at the TOP 2 1st....

GREEN WITH ENVY and FLAG MAN....

The RACE was run at a VERY SLOW PACE (VSP) as I previously pointed out thus favouring FM much more than it did GWE. The sectionals and FS produced by GWE is simply ridiculous. FM on the other hand did not run to his 'rating' of his previous run where his FS were simply phenomenal. I think he should be ridden cold and than we will see his real potencial again. BUT the L200M he showed his class (atleast to me) in no uncertain terms. He beat GWE in FS in the last furlong. I can write that down to the amount of WASTED ENERGY (WE) that GWE had to endure but still for FM to better the ORFS showed in no uncertain terms HE IS CLASS!!!!!

The FS of BARBERESCO underlines what Frodo said.....He is DEFINITELY value at that price.

Now...let's get to the subject of this post.....MID WINTER WIND.

Before that...let me make a worldly example WE ALL can understand simply enough...

Athletics....Let's say I run the 100m and 400m

I would probably run the 100m in 25 seconds (I think,lol) now I  can probably run the LAST 100M  of a 400M RACE also in 25 seconds....but only if I walked the 1st 300m of it.....So does that mean I can run 400m and STAY ON to finish the Last 100m in 25 seconds???? Hahahahaahahaha of cos I can...hahahahahaha in my wildest dreams!!!!!

Thatis the case off what happened here....They walked in the DN thus they could Sprint home like that. So MID WINTER WIND (and the rest actually finished faster) could run more or less the same L800 and L400 ST.

The FS of MWW in the Guineas showed that he was on par with the race itself....He did not get that much tired butjust isn't the same class as those before But if we COMPARE his FS with that off the ORFS in the DN than you would see him dipping below that mark quite significantly. Thus meaning he was SLOWING DOWN FASTER than the race being run meaning....HE DID NOT SEE OUT THE DISTANCE at all....and THAT IS AN FACT!!!!! It was a VSP and the fact that he slowed down so much is prove that this is not his distance (maybe in the future when he has strengthen?) But I highly doubt that.

So for future references, if the handicappers use that kind of reasoning to adjust ratings....Form Studiers will be in trouble becoz the ratings will be wrong!!!!(They will never be right, but they will be further wrong)

We can't just look at ST as different things come together to achieve them but when 1 use FS along with them it is possible to put into context those times and what we see.

I myself was just a 'Form Student' for many years and followed it relentlessly. Devoting hours and hours....years and years on it. I would say my knowledge of form study was almost on par with that of Frodo (atleast) whom I think along with others on here are quite good in that department. But only after discovering HK RACING was when I learned that combining FORM STUDY and ST the end results are so much better. So if I can urge anybody...take the time and learn as much as possible about ST as you can....than it will lead you to horses like SILVER CROWN yesterday....u can find them on form aswell, but the times just add so much more confidence in your selections.
 

PRESS RELEASE

MERIT RATING APPEAL
An independent National Horseracing Authority of Southern Africa (NHA) Merit Rating Appeal panel consisting of Messrs G Soma, K Miedema and A Sewpersad was convened virtually on 3 June 2024. The panel considered a Merit Rating Appeal lodged by Trainer Mr D Kannemeyer against the published adjusted merit rating of GREEN WITH ENVY of 127 (from 123) after his win in the DAILY NEWS 2000 (Grade 1) at Hollywoodbets Greyville Racecourse on 25 May 2024.

The Appeal Panel, after careful consideration, unanimously agreed that MID WINTER WIND was a reasonable line horse in this race, as in their opinion, the other reasonable line horse options available, if selected, would have resulted in GREEN WITH ENVY incurring a higher merit rating.

Consequently, the Merit Rating Appeal was dismissed.

The Appeal Panel ruled that the deposit fee in relation to the Appeal be declared forfeit.