​​​​​​​HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

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HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE

L’ORMARINS KING’S PLATE (Grade 1)
ONE STRIPE had his rating adjusted to 132 from 118 after impressively winning the WFA Grade 1 L’Ormarins King’s Plate over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth Racecourse on Saturday. The Handicappers were of the opinion that ROYAL AUSSIE confirmed the 124 he achieved in the 2024 L’Ormarins King’s Plate, when 3rd to CHARLES DICKENS, and were unanimous in selecting ROYAL AUSSIE as the line horse here, hence his unchanged rating of 124.The runner-up MONTIEN, who beat the 124 rated line horse ROYAL AUSSIE at level weights by 2.80 lengths, was adjusted to 129 from a rating of 120. Three horses received drops in this race. 3rd placed GIMME A PRINCE was dropped to 129 from 130 as this was his highest achievement in his latest 4 starts. AT MY COMMAND was dropped from 119 to 118 and AL MUTHANA received a 4 point drop from 120 to 116.

CARTIER PADDOCK STAKES (Grade 1)

DOUBLE GRAND SLAM had her rating adjusted to 122 from 119 after emphatically winning the WFA Grade 1 Cartier Paddock Stakes over 1800m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday.

The Handicappers were of the opinion that the runner-up RED PALACE was the best candidate for a line horse and used her rating of 119 to rate this event. RAINBOW LORIKEET, who was rated to run 3rd last in this event, had her rating increased from 105 to 111 after outperforming her official pre-rating. There were no other increases to ratings in this race and only one finisher received a drop in ratings. SAARTJIE was dropped to 116 from 118.

ANTHONIJ RUPERT WYNE PREMIER TROPHY (Grade 2)

Top rated, RASCALLION remained on a rating of 122 after landing the Grade 2 Anthonij Rupert Wyne Premier Trophy over 1800m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. The Handicappers were unanimous in their view that LITIGATION, who is somewhat of a distance specialist, made for the most suitable line horse in this event and as such he remained on a mark of 113. In rating the race this way, the runner-up MAGIC VERSE produced a performance figure of 114 as he beat the 113 rated line horse by 0.45 of a length, and was accordingly adjusted to a rating of 114.FUTURE SWING, who was unlucky not to have finished closer, was the only other runner to receive an increase in ratings and was adjusted to 114 from 110.The following horses received drops to their ratings, PACAYA was dropped from 118 to 116, TRIPLE TIME was dropped from 111 to 110, RAPIDASH was dropped to 109 from 110 and WITHOUT QUESTION was dropped to 115 from 118.

CARTIER SCEPTRE STAKES (Grade 2)

ASIYE PHAMBILI remained unchanged on a rating of 116 after her win in the Grade 2 Cartier Sceptre Stakes over 1200m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. The Handicappers were of the unanimous view that 4th placed SUMMER LILY made for a suitable line horse here and her rating remains on a mark of 100.The runner-up, ROCCAPINA, saw her rating increased to 111 from 99 following her effort when producing a strong finish to be beaten by a narrow margin. The only other runner to receive an increase in ratings here was SIDDELEY, who was beaten by a short head by the 100 rated line horse at level weights and was accordingly adjusted to 99 from 95.Only two horses received drops to their merit ratings here, GIMMIE’S COUNTESS was dropped by 1 point from 111 to 110 after failing to confirm her pre-rating in her last 3 runs, while PINEAPPLEMINTGREEN was dropped to 99 from 104.

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD CHAIRMAN’S CUP (Grade 3)

KING PELLES had to be capped to a rating of 96 after impressively winning the Grade 3 Glorious Goodwood Chairman’s Cup over 2500m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday.The Handicappers were of the opinion that both the runner-up HOLDING THUMBS and 3rd placed MUCHO DINERO made for the most suitable line horses here, hence their unchanged ratings of 99 and 110 respectively. The specific conditions for this event do not allow for an increase of more than 8 points for the winner and as such KING PELLES had to be capped to a rating of 96.Four horses received drops to their ratings. VIHAAN’S BOMB was dropped to 91 from 93, FUTURE PEARL dropped to 116 from 117, NEBRAAS dropped to 100 from 103 and HAN SOLO dropped to 102 from 104.

Enquiries:
The Handicapping Team

I think we are constantly over-rating out top performers; why would Montien suddenly improve to a mark 10 points higher than he has achieved to date; I would rather use him as line horse and therefor Silver Stripe is around 121 (anyway I believe that Gimme A Prince is better over shorter and Royal Aussie is probably over-rated)

In the Premiers, I can't see how Rascallion could be 122 if one uses Litigation as line horse at 113 

In the Paddock, I'd use Gold Poker Game as line horse, meaning Double Grand Slam achieved 117; I think thad Red Palace needed the run a bit in her first for the new stable (as indicated by the betting drift) and would improve in her next start - be it in the Majorca or the MET (I think the MET is the better option)

Anyway, only my opinion ....