TURFFONTEIN THURSDAY 23 JANUARY 2024

 

Race 2: Count Huhtikuu
Race 3: Twelve Oclock High
Race 6: Confederate
Race 7: Warning Sound

It looks a punters day where exotics also look catchable..

do you think if you play a maximum perm on pick 6 say R1080 or a percentage would you make a profit or lose money ??

1-2-3
1-7
1
3-5
Field 
Field 

You could also cut back on early races 

It's your money 💰 

Good Punting 👍 



 

I have taken a massive strike on Dragon Dragon in race 1 today. When the betting opened it was at odds of 6 and was 3rd or 4th on the betting boards. I was shocked that it was not favourite. 

28 Nov 2024 over 1,200m:
- Gimme A Storm (57.5kg) 5.75 lengths behind Abbey's View
- Dragon Dragon (60kg) 6 lengths behind Abbey's View

Dragon Dragon was speedy but started fading with 200m to go. Anyway, at the weights Dragon Dragon is better than Gimme A Storm.

21 Dec 2024 over 1,200m:
- Gimme A Storm (60kg) 0.9 lengths behind Flight of Condor (58.5kg)

Gimme A Storm better than Flight of Condor at the weights.

11 Jan 2025 over 1,000m: 
- Flight Of Condor (58.5kg) wins 
- Winter Miracle (60kg) 5.25 lengths behind 
- Blingual (60kg) 5.55 lengths behind 
- Act on Snow (60kg) 7.75 lengths behind

Using the collateral, Dragon Dragon is a few lengths better than Winter Miracle, Blingual and Act on Snow.

Now let's look at the betting:
Dragon Dragon @ 4.00
Blazing Beauty @ 4.33
Blingual @ 5.55
Act on Snow @ 6.56
Winter Miracle @ 8.14

Peter stables don't seem confident on Blazing Beauty, and since Dragon Dragon has the others beat - it should hopefully be the right horse! 

Race is also over 1,000m which seems like the better distance for Dragon Dragon. In addition, this horse started at odds of 6 and has now shortened to 3.5 with some sites - that means Mr Khan (trainer and owner) has laid down some of his own loot. Also 3rd run after a rest! 

My only concern is novice work rider Ndeve on the saddle, but he rode this filly well last time out. Hopefully he puts his head down and goes from gun to tape! 

Dave Scott wrote:

It looks a punters day where exotics also look catchable..

do you think if you play a maximum perm on pick 6 say R1080 or a percentage would you make a profit or lose money ??

1-2-3
1-7
1
3-5
Field 
Field 

You could also cut back on early races 

It's your money 💰 

Good Punting 👍 




 

I think a good perm - I think the question is Destiny of Fire - imo she should easily have won last time - this time a big weight - but based on her run in the Fillies Mile it should not be a race; The Africa House is scratched in the 6th, so I'd rather include Soldier's Eye and perhaps Majestic Palace

Enjoy

Cyber spirit 16/1 looks value in the 1st 

Good run but found one better 

Apache chief in the second for me 

Wife wins the 1st and husband the 2nd.

My dartboard guesses for today...

Race 5 - 3 Princess Ilaria
Race 6 - 8 Majestic Palace
Race 7 - 3 Queen of Love
Race 8 - 6 DJ Junior

All the best to fellow Clanners...

Bit of a nightmare start in the first 2 races - Craig P obviously the one to follow with 2 good 2nds at good odds 

manwatweet wrote:

Wife wins the 1st and husband the 2nd.

wat a nice DOUBLE......  that could have been   14 / 1  onto   16/1......  I guess we were all sleeping.

could have been a nice KITTY for the MET......  2540 / 10     not bad for 10 bucks outlay !!