1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

Bob Brogan
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1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 6 days ago - 2 weeks 6 days ago

Eight On Eighteen has earned top spot on the Hollywoodbets Durban July Log as published by the Racing Operator earlier today. There were eleven scratchings at the time of first declarations on Monday 12 May, including Grade 1 winner Fire Attack and Gold Bracelet (Gr 2) winner Red Palace – both due to setbacks in training – while Musical Score and WSB East Cape Derby winner, My Best Shot, were supplemented on Tuesday, 13 May by their respective trainers Lucky Houdalakis and Alan Greeff.
The panel comprising Justin Vermaak, Raf Sheik, Graeme Hawkins and senior handicapper, Lennon Maharaj, have positioned My Best Shot on the fringes of the top twenty, which reflects exactly what the final field would look like if the Hollywoodbets Durban July was run today.

The Log will be updated on 10 June, following the second declaration stage on Monday, 9 June. By then, the Daily News 2000 (Gr 1); Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge (Gr 1); the Woolavington 2000 (Gr 2) and Cup Trial (Gr 3) will have been run, the outcomes of which could impact the status of HDJ contenders.

The Hollywoodbets Durban July will be run on Saturday 5 July.
Get your tickets to this year's event: tinyurl.com/hdjgoldcircle

#HDJ2025 #HDJMarvelsOfMzansi #HollywoodbetsDurbanJuly #FeelThePulse

Last edit: 2 weeks 6 days ago by Bob Brogan.

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Bob Brogan
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 6 days ago

#898174

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Craig Eudey
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 6 days ago

#898177

Last year's 2nd in the 1900 won the Vodacom July. This year's 2nd is not on the list?

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Frodo
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 6 days ago

#898179

Craig Eudey wrote:

Last year's 2nd in the 1900 won the Vodacom July. This year's 2nd is not on the list?

The panel obviously rates the 1900 very lowly - Imo this log is hogwash - are they seriously considering the old-age home like Pacaya, Mucho Dinero - to name some; I am biased, but I can not see why On My Honour (rated 116) is not on the 'reserve list' at least - Confederate (rated 118) is 6th on the list

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Kaotik PA Punter
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 6 days ago

#898188

Based on this log, and to be fair I can't see anything upsetting the list in the next 5 weeks before the final log is published, this is a 4 horse race with the top 4, Snaith is very fortunate this year, he has two horses that only has two horses to beat. No older horse or 3yr olds excite.

I can't see how anything beyond the top 4 winning this race. Surely only draws and weight to consider now. I still think the two 3yr olds have this in the bag.

Even in the guiness Sail the Sea, although over 1600m wasnt stretched by Muzi. Im almost certain Muzi will ride Sail the Sea over Royal Victory, he knows what he felt from a horse who will only be stronger in 7 weeks from now. 2200m may be far. But if he gets a draw, first run, others taking too long to get into stride he may only have 8 on 18 to fear in the last 50m.

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Craig Pienaar
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 6 days ago

#898192

Eight on eighteen battled to quicken in a 3 horse field , how he will find a run and win in the July with 15 horses in the way is anyone's guess , def not for me

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mr hawaii
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 6 days ago

#898199

Craig Pienaar wrote:

Eight on eighteen battled to quicken in a 3 horse field , how he will find a run and win in the July with 15 horses in the way is anyone's guess , def not for me

Watch the Derby...Express yourself is pacemaker....Legal Council I can only presume was the intended pacemaker for the Guineas...was scratched at 15h07 I think just before the start....I think the result of the Guineas would be different if he had run....In the July there will be a stronger pace ...buy if a horse like Oriental Charm does lead it is not out of the realm of possibility that Van der Merwe will ride a similar race to last year and slow it down in running(the Bartie Leisher approach) ...that's why I'm certain Snaith has entered multiple runners who seemingly have no chance in the Daily News to ensure there is a strong pace....if however 8 on 18 wins going away and Sail The Seas is in the race then 8 on 18 will be raised close to 130 for the July....is he good enough to give up to 5kg to other 3yr olds?...it all depends if Johnson and Rupert want to go for history by winning both the Met and July with a 3yr old and cement his career as a sire (I'm certain if they open his book now as a stallion it will be filled in a day as Lancaster Bomber is a super sire)....personally I would actually miss the Daily News and go for the July....

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Kaotik PA Punter
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 6 days ago

#898203

Hi Graig I do agree and share your thoughts.

I thought the same during the Met, but then he went on to win both, the Derby as well.

I just wonder how good this horse really is. In affect at being recently turned 3 yrs old he wins the Met and 5 months latter he must of improved further. I think Snaith and team no what they got in him, and there is a lack of older quality and form around so you can be adventures.

Agree on the weight, but I think every trainer and owner and jockey and breeder wants the July won and won as many times as possible. So they may not over extend him in the Daily news and do what's required to just win, but I see the Guiness run as a training gallop, the the Daily News as his really first run back brining him to peak fitness for the July.

You could buy 20 horses and you may not get a horse like this in a while. Surely if and after they win the July, I won't be surprised if they make a grand slam of things and go for the Sunner cup as well. As Gauteng has a really poor crop of 2000m horses right now.

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bayern
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 6 days ago - 2 weeks 6 days ago

#898204

mr hawaii wrote:

Craig Pienaar wrote:

Eight on eighteen battled to quicken in a 3 horse field , how he will find a run and win in the July with 15 horses in the way is anyone's guess , def not for me

Watch the Derby...Express yourself is pacemaker....Legal Council I can only presume was the intended pacemaker for the Guineas...was scratched at 15h07 I think just before the start....I think the result of the Guineas would be different if he had run....In the July there will be a stronger pace ...buy if a horse like Oriental Charm does lead it is not out of the realm of possibility that Van der Merwe will ride a similar race to last year and slow it down in running(the Bartie Leisher approach) ...that's why I'm certain Snaith has entered multiple runners who seemingly have no chance in the Daily News to ensure there is a strong pace....if however 8 on 18 wins going away and Sail The Seas is in the race then 8 on 18 will be raised close to 130 for the July....is he good enough to give up to 5kg to other 3yr olds?...it all depends if Johnson and Rupert want to go for history by winning both the Met and July with a 3yr old and cement his career as a sire (I'm certain if they open his book now as a stallion it will be filled in a day as Lancaster Bomber is a super sire)....personally I would actually miss the Daily News and go for the July....

Let's go with the hypothetical scenario, 8 on 18's MR is increased to 130. At time of the race he is the highest MR horse, as a 3 year old the maximum weight he can carry is 57.0kg. If the horse you alluding to, Legend Of Arthur (MR 117), then according to MR's, (130 - 117 = 13/2 = 6.5, therefore theoretically, LOA should carry 50.5kg. As we know the minimum weight for a 3 year old colt is 52.0, LOA would be 1.5kg under sufferance in relation to 8 on 18?

One more thing, if the wfa allownce of 2.0kg for 3 year old colts applies, then LOA will be under even more sufferance because 8 on 18 would carry 55.0kg (my assumption).

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

Last edit: 2 weeks 6 days ago by bayern.

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mr hawaii
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 6 days ago

#898205

8 on 18 carries 57kg unless another 3yr old beats him in the Daily News....the top weight is an older horse at 60kg ...probably Montein if they supplement or See It Again...8 on 18 can never carry 55.5kg as he's the joint highest rated in the race now...See It Again on the current rating is top weight as the top weight must carry 60kg then 8 on 18 carries 57kg ...he gets 2kg wfa so should be 58kg but because of the restriction is bound to 57kg ...both see it again and he are 127...Montein is a 129 I believe so even if that runs still 57kg but then See It again will carry 59kg to the 60kg of Montein ...use Wild Intent run in the soft first run Cape to get a line on some of the Gauteng 3yr olds who will all get weight from either Snaith 3yr olds unless a horse like Confederate wacks them in the Daily News...can the Snaith pair give 4kg to most Gauteng 3yr olds ...We wait and see

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Muhtiman
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 5 days ago

#898206

......The Daily News is a real ducks and drakes race....this is where some of the higher rated 3yr olds go in under done to bring them on for the bigger prize....it can therefore produce a tactical surprise....

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bayern
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Re: 1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

2 weeks 5 days ago

#898211

mr hawaii wrote:

8 on 18 carries 57kg unless another 3yr old beats him in the Daily News....the top weight is an older horse at 60kg ...probably Montein if they supplement or See It Again...8 on 18 can never carry 55.5kg as he's the joint highest rated in the race now...See It Again on the current rating is top weight as the top weight must carry 60kg then 8 on 18 carries 57kg ...he gets 2kg wfa so should be 58kg but because of the restriction is bound to 57kg ...both see it again and he are 127...Montein is a 129 I believe so even if that runs still 57kg but then See It again will carry 59kg to the 60kg of Montein ...use Wild Intent run in the soft first run Cape to get a line on some of the Gauteng 3yr olds who will all get weight from either Snaith 3yr olds unless a horse like Confederate wacks them in the Daily News...can the Snaith pair give 4kg to most Gauteng 3yr olds ...We wait and see

Mr H, even if we accept the MR's between (say) 8 on 18 (127) and LOA (117) being what they are, LOA would be 1.0kg under sufferance if the minimum weight for a 3 year old colt is 53.0kg.

Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

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