1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

Muhtiman wrote:

You could buy 20 horses and you may not get a horse like this in a while. Surely if and after they win the July, I won't be surprised if they make a grand slam of things and go for the Sunner cup as well. As Gauteng has a really poor crop of 2000m horses right now.

Nic Johnsson has the ammo to buy a horse like this in only half of 20.....Jet Dark springs to mind and there have been others.....lucky owner he is not....he has the best paid advice in the country.....wow.....and there no need to f@ck about in our lowly Summer Cup....oh my   

8 on 18 no doubt will go to stud after his three-year old season  ....no sense risking the best performed son on Lancaster Bomber to run in the meaningless Summer Cup....I think only an International program would stop him from the breeding barn ....unless they need another pop at the Met ....I know he is worth far more as a stallion than winning the Summer Cup and Met... how much would a cover from Lancaster Bomber be if he was still alive now considering the amount of stakes winners he's produced....
 

mr hawaii wrote:

8 on 18 carries 57kg unless another 3yr old beats him in the Daily News....the top weight is an older horse at 60kg ...probably Montein if they supplement or See It Again...8 on 18 can never carry 55.5kg as he's the joint highest rated in the race now...See It Again on the current rating is top weight as the top weight must carry 60kg then 8 on 18 carries 57kg ...he gets 2kg wfa so should be 58kg but because of the restriction is bound to 57kg ...both see it again and he are 127...Montein is a 129 I believe so even if that runs still 57kg but then See It again will carry 59kg to the 60kg of Montein ...use Wild Intent run in the soft first run Cape to get a line on some of the Gauteng 3yr olds who will all get weight from either Snaith 3yr olds unless a horse like Confederate wacks them in the Daily News...can the Snaith pair give 4kg to most Gauteng 3yr olds  ...We wait and see

Mr. H, here's what i am not certain about. The above post is talking to, in the main, the wfa allownce but is not taking merit ratings into account, i'll apologise in advance if i have it wrong. Your last post, i understand the lower weighted horses won the race, but not when under sufferance.

Last years winner and runner, taking mr and wfa into account :-

Oriental Charm - 3 year old - mr 121 - 53.0kg
Cousin Casey - 4 year old - mr 123 - 56.0kg

Again my understanding, 123 - 121 = 2/2 = 1.0kg, therefore56.0 - 1.0 = 55.0 LESS 2.0 (wfa) = 53.0kg.

The wfa is relative between 3 year old, however i believe if the wfa allowance does apply, it would put some three year olds under sufferance in relation to 8 on 18.

NB. I think if the wfa allowance is not deducted, then the conditions would state No Allowances ("at the top" of the card) - then the difference in weights is purely based on merit ratings only.



 

mr hawaii wrote:

Oriental Charm will carry 59kg if See it Again is top weight....so he's 3.5kg better off with 8 on 18 for half length in the Met...has 8 on 18 improved that much ?

Think where our opinions are differing is on the correct wfa allowance, what is it? - i think it's 2.0kg for colts. Let's say it's correct, then my interpretation would be :-

59.0 - 57.0 = 2.0 + 2.0 (wfa) = 4.0, therefore 59.0 - 4.0 = 55.0.
On the Met weights, Oriental Charm would be better off by 1.0kg.

Oriental Charm may follow last year's program, Cup Trial into the July, run in early July.

This is the reason i am hoping 8 on 18 wins the Daily News 2000, so if the mr goes up, it would go some way to negating the above with Oriental Charm, and put some of the 3 year olds under more sufferance
 

mr hawaii wrote:

Rod just look at last year...see It Again top weight.60kg.131...top weighted 3yr old green with envy 127 56kg...I'm sure the conditions are the same ... apply that logic now and you will see that 8 on 18 will carry 57kg as that is the max he can carry....so if it were only for the 2kg wfa he would carry 58kg as would sail the seas but because they are limited to 57kg he would be 1kg better off with the top weight....work from the top rated older horse ...in your example at level weights 8 on 18 (127)would have to give Oriental Charm(125) 1 kg or 2 pts but the limit of 57kg and wfa change that...you don't take the 2kg of the base rate of 57kg as that is the maximum a 3yr old can carry...if 8 on 18 was rated 132 he still can't carry more than 57kg according to my understanding of the conditions but I could be wrong

Mr. H, the example between See It Again and Green With Envy, the same principle applies. With the application of mr and wfa allowances, we should have the same conclusion as Oriental Charm and Cousin Casey.

See It Again - 4 year old - mr 131 - 60.0kg
Green With Envy - 3 year old - mr 127 - 56.0kg

131 - 127 = 4/2 = 2 (on mr allowance)
Therefore 60.0kg - 2.0kg = 58.0kg LESS 2.0kg (wfa) = 56.0

All this proves is that the wfa allowance should be deducted from the mr weight allowance/base weight, in this case, from 57.0 which is the maximum for a 3 year old colt. The answer is the same in both examples.
 

bayern wrote:

My opinion, let's say 8 on 18 wins the DN2000 and ends up being the highest rated horse in the race. As the log stands See It Again has to be the top weight at 60.0kg because the handicappers will be obliged to do so.

From the outset, i've always said Snaith must ensure See It Again takes his place in the race, for this very reason - 8 on 18 will put some horses under sufferance and could be well in.


Same owner ... 8 on 18 OR Sail the Seas will be well in with most of the Gauteng 3yr olds unless Confederate or Grey Jet or Spumante Dolce win the race without incident at current ratings - but unless these 2 thrash them those ratings will go up as the line horse surely has to be either 8 on 18 or Sail the Seas as they are proven .... so the picture will change after the DN - consider at this stage Jonson has 5 runners nominated for the Dai;y News so there will be a proper pace