PRESS RELEASE - HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE
- Bob Brogan
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PRESS RELEASE - HANDICAPPING RATINGS UPDATE
1 month 2 weeks ago - 1 month 2 weeks ago
HOLLYWOODBETS DURBAN JULY (Grade 1) - THE REAL PRINCE has earned a revised official merit rating of 125, up from 120, following his thrilling victory in the Grade 1 Hollywoodbets Durban July, contested over 2200m at Hollywoodbets Greyville this past Saturday.
This was a notable achievement from THE REAL PRINCE, as he had previously never raced beyond 1600m, and in fact, his pre-rating of 120 was earned exclusively over shorter trips. In handicapping terms, THE REAL PRINCE transitioned from the miler aptitude category to the longer-distance category - and did so with a resolute win.
To structure distance aptitude assessments, Handicappers often refer to the S.M.I.L.E. acronym:
In determining the updated ratings, the Handicappers unanimously selected ROYAL VICTORY, the ever-reliable fourth-place finisher, as the line horse, leaving him at a rating of 125. This approach also validated MADISON VALLEY’S performance, as the fifth-place finisher ran precisely to his mark of 115, effectively making him a second line horse.
EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN, the gallant runner-up, reaffirmed his Daily News 2000 merit rating of 129 with a spirited performance. He finished narrowly behind the winner and 2.60 lengths ahead of the 125-rated ROYAL VICTORY while carrying 2kg less.
The maths for EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN’S Performance:·
Base: MR 125 (Royal Victory, line horse)·
+4 MR points: Margin ahead of the line horse (2.60 lengths = 4 MR points), applying the length distance factor over 2200m·
–4 MR points: Weight difference as per race conditions (in receipt of 2kg)·
+4 MR points: Weight-for-Age adjustment (3yold WFA allowance in July over 2200m)·
Performance Rating: 129 - Final SELUKWE was the only other runner to receive a merit rating increase, moving from 111 to 115, justified by his under-sufferance position of 2kg going into the race.
All other participants maintained their prior ratings, with the sole exception of PURPLE PITCHER, whose merit rating was marginally reduced from 122 to 121.
RIDGEMONT GARDEN PROVINCE STAKES (Grade 1) - DOUBLE GRAND SLAM has retained her official merit rating of 122 following her fluent win in the Grade 1 Ridgemont Garden Province Stakes, run over 1600m under Weight-For-Age conditions for fillies and mares at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday. As the joint top-rated runner going into the race, and having performed to expectations, she was duly used by the Handicappers as the line horse to guide the assessment of the field.
Two fillies received merit rating increases following the outcome of the race. MON PETIT CHERIE, the runner-up who finished just 0.80 lengths behind the 122-rated line horse under Weight-For-Age conditions, was raised from 113 to 120. Meanwhile, JUST BE LEKKER, who ran a strong fourth and finished 3 lengths behind the winner, had her rating lifted from 109 to 116, reflecting the quality of her performance relative to the line horse.
Two horses received merit rating decreases: VJ’S ANGEL dropped from 116 to 114, and BEATING WINGS received a slight adjustment, going down from 113 to 112.
POST MERCHANTS (Grade 3) - I AM GIANT has had his merit rating increased from 116 to 119 following his victory in the Grade 3 Post Merchants over 1200m at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday. In assessing the race, the Handicappers identified OUTLAW KING, who finished fifth, as the most appropriate line horse; accordingly, his rating remains unchanged at 110.
The following horses also received merit rating increases:
Further increases:
RAPIDASH: 108 ➝ 107
KING REGENT: 114 ➝ 112
4RACING SEA COTTAGE STAKES (Grade 3) - CHOISAANADA has had his merit rating increased from 106 to 112 following his victory in the Grade 3 4Racing Sea Cottage Stakes over 1800m at Turffontein Standside on Sunday, completing a clean sweep of the Highveld Winter Series. The Handicappers used the third-place finisher, MUSICAL SCORE, as the line horse, whose rating remains unchanged at 112.
Although CHOISAANADA delivered a performance deserving of a higher rating, his merit was capped at 112 in accordance with the race conditions, which permit a maximum increase of 6 points for the winner and do not allow rating increases for placed horses.
No other changes were made to the ratings of the remaining runners.
This was a notable achievement from THE REAL PRINCE, as he had previously never raced beyond 1600m, and in fact, his pre-rating of 120 was earned exclusively over shorter trips. In handicapping terms, THE REAL PRINCE transitioned from the miler aptitude category to the longer-distance category - and did so with a resolute win.
To structure distance aptitude assessments, Handicappers often refer to the S.M.I.L.E. acronym:
In determining the updated ratings, the Handicappers unanimously selected ROYAL VICTORY, the ever-reliable fourth-place finisher, as the line horse, leaving him at a rating of 125. This approach also validated MADISON VALLEY’S performance, as the fifth-place finisher ran precisely to his mark of 115, effectively making him a second line horse.
EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN, the gallant runner-up, reaffirmed his Daily News 2000 merit rating of 129 with a spirited performance. He finished narrowly behind the winner and 2.60 lengths ahead of the 125-rated ROYAL VICTORY while carrying 2kg less.
The maths for EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN’S Performance:·
Base: MR 125 (Royal Victory, line horse)·
+4 MR points: Margin ahead of the line horse (2.60 lengths = 4 MR points), applying the length distance factor over 2200m·
–4 MR points: Weight difference as per race conditions (in receipt of 2kg)·
+4 MR points: Weight-for-Age adjustment (3yold WFA allowance in July over 2200m)·
Performance Rating: 129 - Final SELUKWE was the only other runner to receive a merit rating increase, moving from 111 to 115, justified by his under-sufferance position of 2kg going into the race.
All other participants maintained their prior ratings, with the sole exception of PURPLE PITCHER, whose merit rating was marginally reduced from 122 to 121.
RIDGEMONT GARDEN PROVINCE STAKES (Grade 1) - DOUBLE GRAND SLAM has retained her official merit rating of 122 following her fluent win in the Grade 1 Ridgemont Garden Province Stakes, run over 1600m under Weight-For-Age conditions for fillies and mares at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday. As the joint top-rated runner going into the race, and having performed to expectations, she was duly used by the Handicappers as the line horse to guide the assessment of the field.
Two fillies received merit rating increases following the outcome of the race. MON PETIT CHERIE, the runner-up who finished just 0.80 lengths behind the 122-rated line horse under Weight-For-Age conditions, was raised from 113 to 120. Meanwhile, JUST BE LEKKER, who ran a strong fourth and finished 3 lengths behind the winner, had her rating lifted from 109 to 116, reflecting the quality of her performance relative to the line horse.
Two horses received merit rating decreases: VJ’S ANGEL dropped from 116 to 114, and BEATING WINGS received a slight adjustment, going down from 113 to 112.
POST MERCHANTS (Grade 3) - I AM GIANT has had his merit rating increased from 116 to 119 following his victory in the Grade 3 Post Merchants over 1200m at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday. In assessing the race, the Handicappers identified OUTLAW KING, who finished fifth, as the most appropriate line horse; accordingly, his rating remains unchanged at 110.
The following horses also received merit rating increases:
- O’TENIKWA: from 115 to 118
- BUFFALO STORM CODY: from 112 to 113
- QUESTIONING: from 124 to 123
- ROYAL AUSSIE: from 122 to 120
- HOLDING THUMBS (runner-up): raised from 108 to 110
- AHEAD OF THE FACTS (third): increased from 83 to 86; however, his performance was capped by the same restriction despite meriting a significantly higher figure.
Further increases:
- JOHNNY THE THIEF: from 92 to 94 (ran 2.2 lengths behind the line horse while 4 points under sufferance and carrying an extra 0.5kg)
- COUNT HUHTIKUU: from 91 to 95 (ran 2.75 lengths behind while 9 points under sufferance)
- BLACKBERRY MALT: 98 ➝ 97
- THUNEE PLAYA: 104 ➝ 103
- HOTARUBI: 109 ➝ 108
- UNDERWORLD (runner-up): increased from 109 to 111
RAPIDASH: 108 ➝ 107
KING REGENT: 114 ➝ 112
4RACING SEA COTTAGE STAKES (Grade 3) - CHOISAANADA has had his merit rating increased from 106 to 112 following his victory in the Grade 3 4Racing Sea Cottage Stakes over 1800m at Turffontein Standside on Sunday, completing a clean sweep of the Highveld Winter Series. The Handicappers used the third-place finisher, MUSICAL SCORE, as the line horse, whose rating remains unchanged at 112.
Although CHOISAANADA delivered a performance deserving of a higher rating, his merit was capped at 112 in accordance with the race conditions, which permit a maximum increase of 6 points for the winner and do not allow rating increases for placed horses.
No other changes were made to the ratings of the remaining runners.
Last edit: 1 month 2 weeks ago by Bob Brogan.
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