Odd on favourites being rolled..

I just find it amazing at the amount of odds on favourites not winning, or running out of the first three altogether, particularly in Gold Circle country.

Today again, Great Kahn just managed to sneak into the PA [please note, I have not played at all today, so am not talking from the pocket].

I remember hearing Karl the Kerel in an interview one day intimate that when bookmakers see he is riding a horse with reasonable form, immediately it is priced up in the red, even if the form of the horse does not vidicate the odds.

Does the same apply to Delpeck/De Kock, Fortune/Ramsden etc!

I would appreciate comments from all, especially the seasoned professionals.

Yeldah, favourites the world over only ever win around a 1/3rd.

That's all fav's whether 8/1 jt fav of 6 like in some large UK handicaps or a can't lose 1/5shot! One in Three ONLY!

Now if you remember that, it'll help stop you going crazy when the 'can't lose Horse comes last - lol!

As for the point that Horses ridden by the better jocks or come to that trained by certain trainers generally start off much shorter is also a well known fact.

Imo the only way to truly 'play' the Horses is to make you're own book of what odds you feel your selection should - if around that or greater play. If Shorter leave.

However I heisten to add, I like the vast majority will still plough in when odds are too short - lol! Hence the bookies continue to offer poor value, and if you want to punt seriously, it seems that 'betfair' is the only way to go.

Although by doing so nothing goes back to the game in SA, although I believe money is returned into the 'betting levy' in the UK - Dave? So maybe in order to get betfair in SA will need some form of payment to SA racing - 50-50 profits?

Anyhoo Yeldah, I'm waffling now dbl-lol!!

Cheers, Jim.

jim, don't believe the propaganda. betfair already does pay 10% of its worldwide revenue on SA racing to phumelela gold. same % as UK bookies pay to UK levy, except this is voluntary in the case of SA.

yeldah, i agree with jim - better always to form your own view of whether a horse is value, and if not just walk away.

Yeldah - you have got to decide whether you want to punt for profit or fun. This may sound pretty obvious but it took me 30+ years to learn that it is highly unlikely that you will turn a consistent profit by backing horses - simply because there are too many imponderables and the markup does the rest.

eg - By now you will undoubtedly have encountered horses priced 1/3 - 6/10 which were never sighted against 10+ opponents. I mention this betting range because in a rugby game you can get the same odds where there are only two possible alternative outcomes - lose or draw. Mathematically it is a no brainer that you punt sport for profit ( although you will need a far larger capital base ) and just fiddle around on horses FOR FUN and the odd Act Of God.

Refer to Jamster above - 1 in 3 win. ( The more precise percentage is about 35% ). Bookmakers rely heavily on the herd instinct to co-erce you into punting suspect favourites. What the heck - it's part of the play. More the fool all of us for falling for it. If you don't do your own homework then you must expect to get murdered.

Yeldah, I share your frustrations,

It is often (becoming more the rule, than the exception), that top jockeys riding for top trainers screw up not just P6's, but PA's as well.

We have read of numerous stories about trainers and jockeys having a fallout, so my personal view is that top trainers have a passion for the game, and in so doing, nurture and groom their charges to bring the best out of them...it is the jockeys that screw up (Don't give a Ferrari to a someone with a "taxi driver" mentality"

Perhaps these jockey's have their own syndicate going, and it would be foolish not to believe that bookies have no ties with jockeys...or vice versa.

Here are some scenerios..

1)PA : I am a top jockey, riding a horse that cannot run unplaced...I play my PA bet leaving my mount out of my selection, the very same mount, that thousands of punters will banker. Whoah, what happens next,

a) I hit the front, only to get beaten into fourth, in the couple of strides.

b) I get my mount boxed in, and then do some really hard work to fix up the situation that I f'd up to make it seem like I really had no control of the situation...damn horse,..just would not respond....me been a top class rider...surely this was not a chance ride(another topic altogether)...and surely I must have done some work ride to get a feel for the horse...

All that is now needed is for 1 or 2 other top jocks to do the same, and what we end up with are massive payouts, to a select few in the "know", using punters money, and manipulating the situation to their own benefit.

As for P6 payouts, I guess what has been happening over the last month or two, speaks for itself (Gold Circle, to be more specific)

If horse racing is as transparent as, it's administrators "project" it, to be, to the racing public, with all it's marketing tricks, like,..

- "get rich before lunch"
- "millions won everyday"

then, surely, it should publicise all these winners who have won "big".

Perhaps, this would uncover, just who has won big.

And this ain't an "out of pocket" gripe.

Yelda,,its easy to be an after result merchant but the truth is as far as we were concerned at formgrids, Henchman was always the right one and the betting was wrong

Yeldah....taken from the Sean Tarry website yesterday.

Been following his 'tips'....the man is the most honest guy in racing. The bookies on the other hand?????

SCOTTSVILLE, 12 NOVEMBER:

R3 GREAT KHAN, small horse and improving, good chance but not a ''good thing'' first time Scottsville.

Keanu , i stand to be corrected here but when i logged on to see comments before the race those comments where not updated on his site.
Further more with other sites such as Mike Bass he loads his comments early, i have noticed that the Tarry website onlys gets updated An hour or so before the 1st race.

As i said above i stand to be corrected.

RS

They are delayed at times.You have got to keep trying. Somtimes it comes through an hour after the first race.

In order to resolve the inconsistencies surrounding horses performances the following needs to be done/addressed with a great degree of Urgency.

Firstly every stipendiary stewards/Horseracing Watchdogs needs to review races where favorites have run indifferently. Past race footage needs to be analysed with special attention given to horses positioning/ how jockeys riding actions differ from their norm/ riding tactics employed on that day etc did the horse come from off the pace or did it run from an handy position.
The fact that special emphasis will be placed on favorites that have run poorly will in lots of ways prevent unscrupulous behaviour. Currently our authorities lack the backbone to be assertive hence "criminal elements" are not fazed out.
It is painful listening to punters complain about crooked jockeys and trainers whenever they lose their money. Advocating the above processes will sort out and clear mindsets. horseracing in SA needs this desperately......any opinions???