"Hot" info from Brent!

Hi Everyone,



I am not sure if this qualifies as a “Best Bet” or a “Value Bet” but I thought I would draw your attention to what I see as some brilliant albeit short priced value on the Nedbank Challenge.

While doing research for tonight’s edition of BETTING WORLD (which you can catch at 21h00 on ch 232) I came up the “Will there be a hole in one?” market on Betting World.

They are currently betting 1/5 no hole in one and 7/2 that there is one.



Now at first glance you might say that 1/5 is too short to get involved with but let’s try and put it into perspective.



Doing a rough calculation there have been over 4000 shots struck in the Nedbank Challenge since it started in 1981. I understand that there has never been a hole in one during that time.

Next week 192 tee shots will be fired at the par 3 greens.



For my money that makes the 1/5 look like the investment of the century. Yes it can be argued that the hole in one is due but I am pretty confident in saying that the 1/5 will be shortened and will be more like 1/10 within a few days (or perhaps hours).

The question of course is how to use this info?



Well if you are a big hitter taking say 2000/10000 may be an option but my advice is to use it to increase the odds of other bets you may be taking.



For example I think Ireland are nicely priced to win the 6 Nations at 4/1 – if I throw in the 1/5 no hole in one I can then take 5/1 Ireland. Or if you fancy the Wigan/Everton draw tonight then you can increase the 22/10 to 2.84/1 by adding the 1/5 in.



Don’t get carried away though as there is no such thing as a certainty in sport.

By the way our suggested bets for tonight’s game are on www.sportingweb.co.za



I would love to hear your thoughts on this hole in one market – drop me a line if you get a gap



Cheers



Brent Graham

Agree that is the downside but I am pretty sure there will be takers though.

I see it is 1/10 at Betxchange with 7/1 there will be an ace

Catsmug what do you think of this one?

Betxchange go 5/10 there will be a playoff and 16/10 there will not be one.

Let’s have a look at the stats

In 27 tournaments there have been 8 playoffs meaning they have occurred 30% of the time suggesting a price of 5/2 would be more reflective with 1/4 that there will not be a playoff.

If we narrow the sample down to the last 10 years then there have been 5 playoffs (in 98, 00, 01, 03, 05) which suggests that they should be betting 1/1 the pair.

Either way the 16/10 at Betxchange about no playoff looks great value.

You can read the full article here www.sportingweb.co.za/sportingweb/view/s...?oid=11354&sn=Detail

I will take the double, cheers.

Ok guys I have another one for you. Full details on Sportingweb www.sportingweb.co.za/sportingweb/view/s...?oid=11438&sn=Detail

In a nutshell there was 11/10 the best round of the tournament is less than 66.5 shots (shortened to 1/1 since posting) - this would have arrived in the last 10 tournaments (and thats as far back as I looked) - in my opinion it should be closer to 3/10.

Surely too good a price to pass up?

I have also found an arbitrage opportunity where the book is 74% - doubt you will get massive bets on but good be good to make a few hundred for no risk to the first ones in. I am sending to my mailing list first thing (if prices still available) and if you want the details e-mail me at brent@sportingweb.co.za

Back to my research - Cheers

Thanks again Brent, I will be giving up horses and just following your well researched info

cheers!

LOL I would not advise that Scotia!!!!

Looking forward to the races on Sunday. I see Interbet and Black Pearl are out with prices on the Jockey Test itself - I would love to write a betting preview but am not that clued up on where the betting value lies - any thoughts?

Cheers Brent and remember the racing is on "Saturday", will try and send you something on the test, however the prices are based on the mounts each jock has and I would agree that Dettori and Kinane have the better mounts and due to the hype and support Frankie will get, I would take Frankie at 7/2.

Sorry careless slip - all set for Saturday

Dave 100% agree w/Frankie @7/2 + throw in Kinane as well = 7/4 winner!!!