Strong Diadem and Guineas Fields Kworth 20/12

WPOTA DIADEM STAKES (WFA)(Grade 2)
Open To All Horses at Weight For Age
WFA: 3yrs-4.0kgs
1 14 POCKET POWER 58.0 120 A B Fayd'Herbe Mike Bass
2 12 KAPIL 58.0 110 A *A Domeyer Stan Elley
3 3 O CAESOUR 58.0 110 A F Anthony Shane Humby
4 2 REBEL KING 58.0 109 A A Marcus Charles Laird
5 8 SENJOR JOSH 58.0 104 A S Khumalo Mitchell Wies
6 9 GAULTIER 58.0 103 A K Neisius Mike Bass
7 10 BLUE TIGER 58.0 102 A A Fortune Mike Bass
8 4 RELINYANE 58.0 100 A R Fourie Justin Snaith
9 11 BARTHEZ 58.0 99 A A Delpech Mitchell Wies
10 1 GOLDEN DICE 58.0 99 A K Shea Darryl Hodgso
11 13 JOSHUA'S DREAM 58.0 95 A J Geroudis Alan Higgins
12 5 PLAY CATCH 58.0 92 A G Cheyne Vaughan Marsh
13 7 WEST COAST GOLD 58.0 91 A G Schlechter Michael Rober
14 6 CONSENSUAL 51.5 102 A G Hatt Mike Bass
(1,6,7,14) (5,9)

Race-8 R 1,000,000 1600m 00:00 Ref-0
BLOODSTOCK SA CAPE GUINEAS (Grade 1)
For All Three Year Old Horses
1 10 BIG CITY LIFE 57.0 103 A B Fayd'Herbe Glen Kotzen
2 2 JAMAICAN DREAM 57.0 103 A K Neisius Brett Crawfor
3 8 RUDI ROCKS 57.0 102 BA A Marcus Basil Marcus
4 12 SPORTING BOY 57.0 102 A J Geroudis Alec Laird
5 9 MASTER OF ALL 57.0 99 A ............... Alec Laird
6 15 ANT OF AGASTA 57.0 98 A K Shea Mike de Kock
7 14 BUSH PIRATE 57.0 98 A A Fortune Joey Ramsden
8 5 KINGS CROSS 57.0 98 A *A Domeyer Stan Elley
9 16 LE DRAKKAR (AUS) 57.0 98 A M Byleveld Dean Kannemey
10 18 CHIEF BLACKFOOT 57.0 96 A M Winnaar Riaan Van Ree
11 6 FLYING WEST (AUS) 57.0 94 A G Hatt Basil Marcus
12 3 VOLPISTA (BRZ) 57.0 91 A S Randolph Glen Kotzen
13 13 LIZARD'S DESIRE 57.0 90 A S Khumalo Mitchell Wies
14 1 MEET AT MALAMALA 57.0 89 A A Delpech Mike de Kock
15 17 SPARKLING GEM 54.5 102 A R Fourie Justin Snaith
16 7 MOTHER RUSSIA 54.5 100 A ............... Joey Ramsden
Reserve Runners
17 4 EXPLORATION 57.0 91 A Reserve 1 Basil Marcus
18 11 HEMINGWAY (BRZ) 57.0 89 A Reserve 2 Dean Kannemey

Diadem is over 1200 m if so not very strong field.

Rebel King and horsies over wrong distance.

Strong 3 year old race but they have to beat the MDK runners if they travel well etc etc.

Can someone please explain how a MR 91 is a reserve runner in the Guineas as a 2 time winner and a MR 90 and 89 get in the race?

Not what you know! Its Who you know.

Lizard's Desire ran third to Big City Life and Sparkling Gem.Race won by Big City Life.
After that he came out in a listed to run Big City Life 0.05 to the wire.
Big City life ran second to Pocket Power.
Sparkling Gem ran 2nd to Mother Russia.
She won the Grade 1 Avontuur in her next start.
Meet at Malamala won a graded race second time asking.
Both Meet At Malamala and Lizard's Desire competed in Group and Listed races.
Exploration competed in a Grade 3 once and was unplaced.

After all the Favourite in the Guinea's will be Big City Life and Sparkling Gem.


Hope that answers your question Puffin.

I think it will be 9/2 the field - most open Guineas in years.

I think Big City Life's 103 is questionable - i dont think 3rd placed Alvaro(presumably used as line horse in the GP Stakes) was anywhere near his peak, and PP won so easily it was laughable.

I also predict neither of the fillies will make the frame, despite being best handicapped according to official MR. They won't turn this one into a sprint quite so easily!

Tks kobus ,a good straight forward sensible answer.

See Big City Life (8/1 - 7/2) and Meet At Malamala (6//1 - 3/1) both double claimed.

I have felt for a while that Jamaican Dream is going to win the Guineas, and have chosen to ignore his latest as too bad to be true. In which case he has to be a huge runner. 10/1 is starting to look attractive.

Following Puffin and Kobus threads. If Kobus is correct (I am not doubting that he isn't) then surely there is something wrong with the merit rating.

I personally feel MR is in a lot of cases unjust. Lets look at 2 horses that spring to mind. Red Tribution. I have been watching this horse battle to win since Cup Trial day this year without success and the MR has remained stagnant. I would not be suprised to see this horse get bumped up in the MR for his second to Intellectual. I was always under the impression that the intention of MR was to get all horses in a field to dead heat on the line. I think MR has the opposite effect, to ensure that the horse does not win its next race. Dante's Inferno is another that battles away without a win. MR is not correct if you look at the intention of Merit rating to finish in a dead heat on the line.

I will probably be shot down for some of the above as ignorant statements but I know what I see and that is horses battling to win because of incorrect weighting and MR.

I admit to not being an authority on the topic and dont really fully understanding how it works but you have to feel for owners trainers and punters who toil away trying to get a horse with an inflated MR to win.

Al

You start by saying that merit racing is unjust. The intension IS to get a dead heat in a handicap race. Before rating horses on merit, the handicapper gave horses say 6 points for every win and the accumulated points determined the weight.

What would you say should be Dante's Inferno's MR, given your position above you should have some opinion?

Well he was just in front of a MR75 horse in Princley light who had a 2,5KG claimer on off an 88 in feb 08. Princely light has since faded to a MR67 yet Dante's Inferno has stayed roughly where it is in the MR. Thanks to www.formgrids.co.za/subscriber/fgHorseHi...Y%20LIGHT%20(ZIM),ZA for the info.

My real concern was not really with Dantes Inferno but more with a trier like Red Tribution. Makes one wonder if the handicaper doesnt look at the horse trainer combo when deciding on MR.....

Look at Dancers Daughter she can go out and try an win evey race in SA as she will be leaving our shores and the trainer does not have to worry about MR for future events. The Met also favours horses with higher MR so there is no real concern about MR.

I must state once again this is an amaturish opinion and my point is horses should not be merit rated to loose their next race but should be rated to dead heat and every horse in a race should have an equal chance of winning in order to be fair to all stakeholders in racing.

Big City Life although unexposed could be overrated. Also trainer does not have
a good record in Classics.

For me La Drakkar, but jockey ?????