PRICING UP

I would like to learn how to price up. Is there a science or formula to this or is it a thumb suck.

Please direct me to some literature if such literature does exist. I have found that times I have done well is when I have not looked at prices. Therefore formguides without prices are best for me as prices throw me off completely. Believe it or not I have done the best on the R3,50 Tabforms. Might have something to do with not being an overload of information.

You mean you want to create your own odds?

For a formula, give each horse a chance to win out of 100, make sure the total for all the horses in the race is 100, then divide 100 by each horses score to get the tote style odds that you would need to beat to get value.

Eg. 4 horse race
1. 10 (R10.00)
2. 50 (R2.00)
3. 25 (R4.00)
4. 15 (R6.67)

Al

The only way to learn how to price up is to do it. Remember that you are not trying to pick the first four home, but what the prices on offer are going to be. It's more art than maths and more experience than form.

The people who make money long term are those who can see when a price is 'wrong', or to put it another way, when the price does not accurately reflect the real chances.

I tried pricing up the last July, and when I showed my bookmaker he instantly shortened DD and fixed my favourite. When the prices came out, he was spot on. Experience told him who and what the top few should be and then the rest of the prices flowed from that.

After a short time, the 'money' horses become easier to spot and the tale enders are easy for anybody.

Perhaps you should price up a few races that take your fancy and post here...the hot iron of publicly exposure should sharpen you quickly.

Start off looking at the trainer/rider combo, the form and previous odds are big factors.

Thanks for the input. Tuesday is a holiday so I will give it a go on Tuesday without looking at bookies prices.

Will post here and see what happens.


"Start off looking at the trainer/rider combo...." is an interesting comment and one that I recon is the reason for a lot of false favourites.


I am of the poinion that the English price up the best and their odds are the best to follow. If you see a horse shortening in England it more often than not runs well. I saw many shorten today in SA and they all failed.

I really like Sabre's explanation... methinks I must have a look at that and see if I can work out a small 'system' to make a consistent 'win'...

Kenilworth Race 5

3 PEACAN STREAM 2/1
2 HOWDOULIKEMENOW 28/10
5 PRIVATE PARK 4/1
6 FITZROY 6/1
7 BOOZE BLUES 7/1
8 HEIRLOOM 10/1
4 TITUS ALONE 10/1
1 SIX TO SIX 12/1
9 CRUTCHES 12/1
11 DANCING WINE 33/1
10 EBENEEZER 33/1

1ST 7 Booze Blues
2ND 3 Peacan Stream
3RD 5 Private Park
4TH 2 Howdoulikemenow (Ssl)