Clyde you biscuit

For runners with a MR 40 and above

3yo +-1500 AveMR 70.8 Median 72
4yo +-2000 AveMR 67.6 Median 66
5yo +-2000 AveMR 65.5 Median 64

KM - I think understand, the same horses would have run in multiple races. Hence "individual horses"

Alcaponee asked (yesterday): Are these stats correct or am I missing something. 4.3 horses per race.

Stats are correct. They are individual horses running more than once.

Frodo asked: Karel, I don't see your point; could you explain in more detail please? How do you get to the 950 extra races?

It would need 950 races for each individual horse that ran to win once during that period.
But there are only 220 races programmed.
That's what I meant by 'opportunity' (or lack thereof, rather).

JD wrote: For runners with a MR 40 and above
3yo +-1500 AveMR 70.8 Median 72
4yo +-2000 AveMR 67.6 Median 66
5yo +-2000 AveMR 65.5 Median 64


Does that mean then that 3yo's (on the whole) are rated 6 points too hi?

IMO the biggest problem with the MR system is that the handicappers penalize the young horses for improvement they may not make - the WFA component. How can the system be correct if the earlier in the season you win a maiden juvenile plate the higher your merit rating. Or the earlier in the season a three year old wins a maiden the higher his/her rating. The majority of our races are maiden plates and yet they are not really used in coming up with our horses merit ratings. The problem is once the ratings are wrong it is extremely difficult to fix them because you are working off incorrect figures.

These are interesting stats and imo does indicate that the 3y olds are rated about 6 points too high (on the whole); it also seems to vindicate my point in another thread that Clan Classique should come down to a 65 from her current 71.

Al, I agree that we need to fix up the 3 yr old ratings first before we start using these ratings to validate the 2 yr olds' ratings. I believe that the handicappers should really apply their minds to the ratings of the 3 yr olds for the rest of the season, so that we can have 'accurate' ratings for all 3 yr olds come the end of the season (31 July). If this means dropping some by 10 points and increasing others by 5 points in one go, so be it.

This would mean that when the 2 yr olds turn 3 on 1 August, their 2 yr old ratings can be validated against the 4 yr olds (current 3 yr olds) when they start running against each other. Then perhaps next year from about April we can start having handicaps for the new bunch of 2 yr olds against the 3 yr olds of the time to make sure that the 2 yr old ratings are accurate.

The other problem of course (as mentioned by Garrick, I think, a while back) is that ratings seem to come down gradually over a period of time, whicj resulted in an automatic 6 points increase to the MR's a couple of years back. Not sure how to address this, and would be interested to hear some ideas on why this is happening and what should be done to prevent it (or is a correction after the fact the best way to deal with it?)

If you achieve to get a horse who's merit rating is 104........ in which races do you run it.
Only futures?

Horses that raced off a MR 104 rating at least once since Jan '08 (the gaps represent the number of times it ran off a 104):

African Appeal
Archipeligo

Bound By Honour
Braggadacio




Captain's Lover
Captain's Table


Cedar
Chopsticks

Classic Oasis
Dynamite Mike
Equal Image



Fair Brutus



Fanyana

Floatyourboat
Hilgrove

Ivory Trail
J J The Jet Plane
Juan Pablo
Let's Rock'n Roll


Lightning Lecture

Likeithot



Mentor



Nania



Northern Frontier

Our Giant
Outcome



Paris Perfect
Renegade

Senjor Josh



She's On Fire
Soft Landing
Sparkling Gem
Strategic News
Therealslimshady
Vision Of Grandeur


Warm White Night

Seems clear where they run.

Kobus, the program should make provision for all horses to race; whether the horse has a rating of 54 or 104 should not matter. Note I say 'SHOULD'. For a horse with a rating of 104, there should be progress and/or pinnacle plates, features and the occasional handicap available - imo.

Guys, the thing is this.

It all seems so 'loose'. Take CC's race, there were some that had gone up and down 71 - 84 within a few runs. others move only slighty = until there's more consistancy either way you'll always have bitchin' lol!

For instance no jump more than 8 points up or 4 points down. If a Horse looks thrown in as a result, don't lay it - 1/5 scares off 95% of punters. Plus if other Trainers fill so agrieved they can scratch so there's no race, - so they'll have to 'place' the Horse in a hioger level - no?

KM your comment on 6 points too high, although tongue in cheek, would probably address a lot of this.

So how about it Mr Handicapper?

They usually wait for 3 poor races before they start dropping mratings..in this country without Buddy that means maybe 6 months.