WHATS YOUR FANCY FOR THE JULY

Did say that I would post theories on draws. Draws are mixed up as most that finish from behind have low draws and front runners posted wide. I think that this race is going to be messy.

I love this time of the year.

As Barry Irwin said last year "....pissing in the wind..." Might be true again this year but oh how I love pissing in the wind.

July quartet
1,7 x 1,7 x field x field

maybe bernard thinks the following...cannot say it...but can think it....
pocket power cannot beat big city life....

Maybe a silly question,but how hard would it be for a horse like Archipenko to qualify to run in the July?

Not hard at all- he has raced against Jaypeg in Dubai and must be of a similar level.

Hibs the unfortunate story of this country is that our good horses are exported and most never get heard of again. Elusive Fort, Arganaut, Kildonan and many others. I am glad that the owners of Kapil decided to give up on the undulating tracks of the UK and bring him home to challenge for July 2009 supremacy

Nice write ups by Mathew Lips on Sportinpost

www.sportingpost.co.za/info/NewsViews/st...stories_head_wk.html

from the racingpost

STAN ELLEY, trainer of the heavily backed Kapil, has been given fresh hope that his charge will stay the trip in Saturday’s Durban July by former jockey Garth Puller.

Elley has his string in fine form – and he won Sunday’s Winter Derby with Market Cap – but he has in the past pointed out that his six-year-old is essentially a miler. There will be an extra three furlongs to travel in South Africa’s greatest race at Greyville on Saturday.

Elley said: “To be honest, I really don’t know about the distance but what I am pinning my hopes on is Garth Puller’s comment.

“He said that it doesn’t matter whether Kapil is racing over six furlongs or a mile and a half. He will still gallop for the last two furlongs.”

Puller won the 1979 Durban July on Over The Air and repeated the performance on Bush Telegraph eight years later. He rode Kapil as a three-year-old and won the KZN Guineas on him.

Kapil flew home in the final stages of the Gold Challenge over 1m at Clairwood 17 days ago to finish a length and a quarter second to Pocket Power and he will be 12lb better with the dual horse of the year on Saturday. Five times champion and big race jockey Piere Strydom will be bidding for his third July winon the seven-year-old.

Kapil was jarred up after the Gold Challenge, and has since been confined to working on dirt, but Elley points out that this matters little.

He said: “The going wasfirm at Clairwood, Kapil responded well and was soon back in full work on the sand. Indeed his work has been very good and his preparation has gone nicely.”

Kapil, 14-1 with local layers before the Gold Challenge, is now a 6-1 chance with most layers. Pocket Power remains 2-1 favourite with River Jetez 5-1 and Big City Life 11-2.

Durban July betting

Ladbrokes: 6-4 Pocket Power, 4 River Jetz, 7 Kapil, 8 Big City Life, 14 Our Giant, 14 Smart Banker, 16 Tropical Empire, 16 Zirconeum, 20 Aluminium, 20 Buy And Sell, 33 bar

Yes Kapil the one!

Kapil would have seemed an unlikely runner, let alone winner, of the Vodacom Durban July back on the day in 2005 when he fractured his leg, but some three-and-a-half years later he is fancied by a few to be wearing the victor’s sash late on Saturday afternoon.



The Stan Elley-trained six-year-old Jallad gelding had won his first two starts as a juvenile but returned one morning from the training tracks extremely lame.



It was discovered that he had fractured a hind pastern.



“He had two pins inserted and then had to stay in his box for three months,” recalled Elley. “It is an operation that has a reasonably high rate of success.”



Kapil began walking after the three month box rest and was then slowly brought back into work.



“He returned to the racecourse after an eight month break 100% sound and won his first comeback race,” said Elley.



Kapil is chiefly remembered for his outstanding performance in the 2006 KZN Guineas at Greyville, in which he faced a highly regarded crop of three-year-olds that included two subsequent July winners, Eyeofthetiger and Hunting Tower .



A howling tail wind blew down the straight throughout the racemeeting that day and it seemed that frontrunners would be favoured, contrary to Kapil’s style which has always been characterised by a flying finish from well off the pace.



Garth Puller ignored the pundits and the trends of the earlier races and had Kapil in last pace turning for home at which point the horse produced one of the more memorable finishes in Greyville history, mowing them down to win by 1,25 lengths.



Kapil was then sent out favourite for the Gold Challenge at Clairwood but was beaten into second by the multiple Grade 1 winner, National Spirit.



It was in that race that Elley believed his soundness issues began.



“He pecked half-way around the turn and returned with a sore back,” said Elley. “I have a very good chiropractor who has treated his back since then.”



Currently, Kapil tends to jar up in his races. Elley said the reason is simply because of his age.



“For a Jallad he actually has good legs,” he added.



Elley keeps him to the sand in his workouts these days to protect his legs.



Kapil spent his four-year-old and part of his five-year-old years in Dubai , Hong Kong and the U.K. , where he finished third in a Group 2 race in Dubai before coming fifth in the Dubai Duty Free, which at that stage was the joint-richest turf race in the world.



He has earned a cheque in every one of his six start since returning to South Africa , although he has not won any of them.



In his last race he finished just 1,25 lengths back in second to Pocket Power in the Gold Challenge over 1600m. He will face him on 5,5kg better terms in the July which makes him a huge runner on paper.



However, he is a horse with plenty of speed who is at his best over a mile and there is a doubt about him staying the 2200m of the July. Pundits seem divided on the issue.



In the J&B Met, run over 2000m, he ran on well to finish fourth despite having been baulked twice in the straight. On that evidence he might see out the 2200m and a further positive is that he switches off almost completely in the running.



Kapil was allocated an almost perfect draw of five for the July.



“I will leave the tactics to Piere Strydom,” said Elley, who added that once the July field jumps the importance of a good draw seems to vanish out of the window.



Kapil has always been a character.



“He has a very nice nature, but you have to be very alert with him as he’s playful,” explained Elley. “His groom Johnson Ngozi has learnt to sit very tight on him for the moment you relax he will try and throw you off. He can also nip when you are not expecting it. Myself and Garth (Puller) have told Piere everything he needs to know about him.”



Of the dangers on Saturday Elley said that he had always liked River Jetez and made her a huge runner at the weights, although he added that he also had “massive respect” for Pocket Power.



He didn’t believe River Jetez’s draw of 15 would be much of a problem due to the experience of Glen Hatt and it would also help her to stay out of trouble.



Elley has trained for 35 years and does not have sleepless nights before a big race anymore, realising that he has “done all he can and what happens will happen.”



He revealed an interesting statistic in that two of his most loyal owners, James Drew and Mike Fullard, who are part-owners of Kapil, have had 199 winners in their ownership careers.



What better race to get the 200th than in the Vodacom Durban July.










Gill Simpkins
Public Relations Manager

If there is one certainty about this year’s Vodacom Durban July then it is that the Andre Kirsten-trained Catmandu will not be the most impressive horse in the canter past to the start, but his supporters need not be concerned.



This Highveld horse was squeezed out in one of his first races as a youngster and as a consequence was off the tracks for a year.



Ever since that day he has had the habit of going to the start very scratchily, as if he is striding short.



However, it is a different story in the race itself, at least after the first 200m.



He has the habit of dropping the bit for the first 200m, but once the field has sorted itself out he picks up into a good gallop.



His ability to relax in the running means he can play his trump card late in the race as he possesses a fine turn of foot and a devastating finishing run.



“I was very happy with his draw of eight,” said Kirsten. “He doesn’t want to be drawn too well because of his habit of dropping the bit in the first 200m. We want to try and have him midfield this year unlike last year when he was too far back.”



Last year he turned for home way back and was 10,2 lengths off the lead at the 400m mark. He recorded a 400m to finish time of 22,3 seconds, identical to that of Pocket Power’s, and finished 4,35 lengths back in twelfth.



“He flew up but you can’t make up that much ground against top horses,” said Kirsten. “If he turns for home closer this year then the rest of the field has problems.”



In last year’s Astrapak 1900 Catmandu turned for home 5,4 lengths back and failed by a shorthead to catch River Jetez, to whom he was giving 4,5kg,



He receives 0,5kg from River Jetez in the July on Saturday, which gives him a shout on paper, although River Jetez, who is the current second favourite, has improved considerably this season.



Catmandu has a merit rating of 102 and carries 51kg, which means that he is officially 2,5kg under sufferance in the big race, while River Jetez is one of only six horses that is in the handicap proper.



Catmandu did his July gallop on the sand on Thursday with E-Fuel.



“His gallop was alright,” said Kirsten. “He’s not a sand horse and E-Fuel is probably one of the top five sand horses in the country. He is very fit and I’m expecting a big run.”



His big race jockey Kevin Derere has been work riding Catmandu for the last three months, so will know him well despite having never ridden him in a race.



Kirsten described Catmandu as a calm horse who is easy to work with.



“He is currently going down to the training tracks in the third or fourth string as it’s quite cold up here now,” he said. “If somebody saw him in the mornings they would never think he is a top horse, as he doesn’t have a good action. He is a calm sort but gets on to his toes when he enters the parade ring.”



Catmandu will be departing for Durban from his Vaal training base on Thursday and will be staying at Clairwood.



“I should be able to give him a light canter at Clairwood on Friday morning,” said Kirsten.



Catmandu is owned by Hendrik van der Westhuizen and AG Du Plessis.







Gill Simpkins
Public Relations Manager

I cannot forget the broad grins in the second box on Gold Challenge day and would love to see Kapil and connections have this race.

Watching the Sangoma on T Track - Loved Laffs comments - "... Got it hopelessly wrong in the past.."

Sorry for the champ but the Sangoma has predicted PP as the winner - not a good sign.