The 6's & the 8's..by Leon Setaro

The 6's & the 8's..by Leon Setaro


Two meetings over the extended weekend in KZN and with the features now over, we can settle back into some hopefully-decent local fare before the spring rains arrive.
First up is Saturday at Clairwood, a card offering some earning promise for punters with strike action beginning in the 3rd.
Here a field of 11 runners step up but only 4 have noteworthy form leaving the balance out of the winning picture.
Newly turned 3 year old Touch the Moon is odds-on favourite at 8/10 after mixing it up with the best 2 year old fillies of last season’s KZN graded features. She’s back to the maidens here which presents a highly unusual scenario and it’s likely that many will rate her as a good thing and value despite the cramped odds.

Of the competitors, No.9 Lois Lane is next up in the betting at 4/1.
She put in a challenge to finish 2nd last time out in an outstandingly weak maiden field so it would be careless to read too much into that.
She’s holds No.10 i'lollipop by a head on that run and by 2 lengths when they met previously back in June.
Neither of these two can be seriously considered for win bets, leaving only No.2 Bit of Bizet in the picture to take on the favourite.


Maiden moderator Bit of Bizet at work on the Summerveld top track (pic Thurs)

Her last two runs have been over 1900m at Clairwood where she’s finished 2nd on both occasions and this key recent experience must count in her favour.
Expect her no further back than second again on Saturday.
Interesting to note is that there’s a 4 second time difference between her last two race times over the same course and distance, the equivalent of 20 lengths at the finish line.
Just how good the 2year old fillies' feature race form will turn out right now remains to be seen and if Touch the Moon falters for even a moment, Bit of Bizet will be there to capitalize at the excellent value of 5/1.
Suggested bet – Wins on Bit of Bizet, covered with a exacta - Touch the Moon to win and Bit of Bizet to run second.
In this way you remove the favourite’s performance (good or bad) from the equation and rely only on Bit of Bizet to beat the rest of the field.


The Mark Dixon trained Chorday on Thursday morning at Summerveld

In the 5th race the stocky-bull Chorday takes on the younger horses in a field of 10 runners and he’s halfway down the betting boards at 6/1.
His last effort was a good one where he ran on to finish just over 2 lengths behind Saluki after finding traffic problems on the strip.
Fair warning that he’s now back to firing and with no Saluki type in this field he looks set to earn a top 3 cheque if not winning. Consider for all bets.

In the 6th race Red Lucifer is also some way down the bookie boards at 6/1 and ran in the same race as Chorday last time out.
He was still cruising on the bit halfway down the straight and looked home and hosed at one stage, until Saluki went past him late in the race.
Interesting to note is that he won his maiden over this same course and distance, a performance still vivid in memory as one of the most impressive of that time.. and it happened exactly two years ago to the day – on the 8th day of the 8th month.. and he’s number 8 in this race too!
If you’re into number signs, you won’t ever get a clearer message that this! If you’re into form, his last run had the come on look about it and we may well see the unveiling of his true potential this time.
way, at 6/1 he’s well worth an early bet.

Caught in the act - Pick of the Bunch pictured here putting in her Thursday morning workout at Summerveld.
She brings good form into the 8th race and must have some sort of chance. Currently trading at 6/1

Leon as usual nice analysis, thanks appreciated.

Thanks Greg

Fantastic article, will have a value bet on Bit of Bizet.

I'm on the double with the BofB and 888.

IMO Touch The Moon will come home lonely
4th in a Gr1 last time(beating 2 Gr1 winners in All Afire and Give Me Five)
Also met winners at her penultimate.
Before that less than a length behind when Laverna won her maiden.
Only way she can lose is if she doesn't stay 2000m.
Look at what Bit Of Bizet has been beaten by recently....

I'm on the double Touch the Moon(8/10) and West Brom(12/10) to beat Newcastle

Good work Leon

Have a dip on Touch the moon (8/10) atc the draw between Man U and Chelsea (22/10)
with the stretch you could get 11/2.

Happy punting!

Its time the punters had a good day?
excellent stuff Leon.

thks for the kind words gents

Good call Leon, looked winner, hard lines,