Tricks of the Pick 6....by Leon Setaro
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Tricks of the Pick 6....by Leon Setaro
15 years 9 months ago
Tricks of the Pick 6
No doubt we can all do with a bit of help in the mad game of racehorse punting, and this holds especially true when it comes to the hardest of all bets to snag – the Pick 6. Here the lure of a big win draws in the punting masses and with pools in excess of a million rand a pop, there’s no shortage of liquidity even for the serious punting enthusiast. When discussing this mother of all bets, the word ‘banker’ tends to dominate the conversation, after all it is the most effective way to reel in the exponential nature of permutation costing. The problem with bankers though is that they’re usually short-priced favourites, meaning everyone is on and so a smaller dividend is the end result. In this scenario, we need a high percentage/small perm ticket to deliver the memorable payday. The other side of the coin is to stock up on roughies (low percentage/large perm) and hope for the favourites to fail and generate the ‘big one’. Sounds all good until you add up the costs involved to include everything with a chance, and it usually turns out to be way beyond viable.
This is where split bets between ‘bankers and cover’ can save the day! Check it out using Sunday’s card at Scottsville as an example - the first leg holds the one-and-only clear cut banker for the day; 8/10 favourite i’lollipop who goes in against an extremely moderate field of maidens. She has consistently put in competitive and noteworthy efforts over ground and her closest ‘almost a winner’ finish to date was over the same course and distance she tackles here. The rest of the field can barely boast a place between them which makes i’lollipop hard to oppose on paper.
With the remaining 5 legs wide open, everyone will be pinning this exotic maiden down for a thrust through to the next round and beyond. All things considered, there’s no option but to banker her otherwise you’re in for perm costs too heavy to generate decent profit should she deliver. But this is racing and what if she crashes and burns? Down goes the majority of tickets, leaving a juicy play cursed by those who missed it, and cheered by those who covered. By employing a split bet strategy here, you can structure your bets around this pivot point and remain proportionately covered either way.
Split bet permutation example based on a R500 budget :
Permutation 1 with banker – R280 for a 26% ticket
Permutation 2 with cover – R220 for a 5% ticket
Perm1 with i’lollipop as banker has 1080 combinations. Perm2 the cover bet, has 4320 combinations. By converting the fixed odds pricing of the banker (8/10) to a winning chance %, you can then directly assign this as a rand value to the banker ticket. 8/10 equates to a 56% winning chance, therefore 56% of the total R500 budget = R280 which buys a 26% ticket. What you’re then left with is 44% of you budget = R220, which buys you a 5% ticket into the cover perm.
The basic example provided here is to demonstrate the principle of ‘cover betting’ in the exotics. A multiple ticket strategy can be applied to many different ‘if/then’ scenarios and not just the single banker aspect used here. When all is said and done, expect the law of averages to gut your bankers for breakfast around 2/3’s of the time over the long term, so it makes punting sense to cover bet and gain the edge over Joe Masses and his pick 6 ticket single.
Interbet ROI competition winner week 10
ROI winner Pierrick Maujean (middle) leads in maiden winner Spanish Emblem with his partners at Scottville earlier this year.
Racehorse owner Pierrick Maujean has won the Interbet Return on Investment competition for the period 10th to 16th August. Congratulations Pierrick, your prize of R2000 has been credited direct to your Interbet account.
Pierrick is an IT consultant based in Durban and owns shares in a number of horses trained by Doug Campbell. His ROI victory came off the back of a winning 10% Pick 6 ticket at Clairwood on Sunday, netting him in excess of R6k from an investment of only R250.
Pics from the Craig Eudey yard
Maritime Mist, seen here basking in the morning sun on Monday following her win last week, will now be given a rest and some time on the farm before returning later this year in the hunt for black type up in JHB.
Thandolwami picked up an injury in the Vodacom Durban July and was given time off to recover. He recently returned to Summerveld and had his first day back in work Monday this week. (pictured)
Remember, Interbet’s mobile betting site in now operational, use it to bet when you’re on the move and without access to a computer - www.interbetsa.mobi
Cheers and happy punting..
No doubt we can all do with a bit of help in the mad game of racehorse punting, and this holds especially true when it comes to the hardest of all bets to snag – the Pick 6. Here the lure of a big win draws in the punting masses and with pools in excess of a million rand a pop, there’s no shortage of liquidity even for the serious punting enthusiast. When discussing this mother of all bets, the word ‘banker’ tends to dominate the conversation, after all it is the most effective way to reel in the exponential nature of permutation costing. The problem with bankers though is that they’re usually short-priced favourites, meaning everyone is on and so a smaller dividend is the end result. In this scenario, we need a high percentage/small perm ticket to deliver the memorable payday. The other side of the coin is to stock up on roughies (low percentage/large perm) and hope for the favourites to fail and generate the ‘big one’. Sounds all good until you add up the costs involved to include everything with a chance, and it usually turns out to be way beyond viable.
This is where split bets between ‘bankers and cover’ can save the day! Check it out using Sunday’s card at Scottsville as an example - the first leg holds the one-and-only clear cut banker for the day; 8/10 favourite i’lollipop who goes in against an extremely moderate field of maidens. She has consistently put in competitive and noteworthy efforts over ground and her closest ‘almost a winner’ finish to date was over the same course and distance she tackles here. The rest of the field can barely boast a place between them which makes i’lollipop hard to oppose on paper.
With the remaining 5 legs wide open, everyone will be pinning this exotic maiden down for a thrust through to the next round and beyond. All things considered, there’s no option but to banker her otherwise you’re in for perm costs too heavy to generate decent profit should she deliver. But this is racing and what if she crashes and burns? Down goes the majority of tickets, leaving a juicy play cursed by those who missed it, and cheered by those who covered. By employing a split bet strategy here, you can structure your bets around this pivot point and remain proportionately covered either way.
Split bet permutation example based on a R500 budget :
Permutation 1 with banker – R280 for a 26% ticket
Permutation 2 with cover – R220 for a 5% ticket
Perm1 with i’lollipop as banker has 1080 combinations. Perm2 the cover bet, has 4320 combinations. By converting the fixed odds pricing of the banker (8/10) to a winning chance %, you can then directly assign this as a rand value to the banker ticket. 8/10 equates to a 56% winning chance, therefore 56% of the total R500 budget = R280 which buys a 26% ticket. What you’re then left with is 44% of you budget = R220, which buys you a 5% ticket into the cover perm.
The basic example provided here is to demonstrate the principle of ‘cover betting’ in the exotics. A multiple ticket strategy can be applied to many different ‘if/then’ scenarios and not just the single banker aspect used here. When all is said and done, expect the law of averages to gut your bankers for breakfast around 2/3’s of the time over the long term, so it makes punting sense to cover bet and gain the edge over Joe Masses and his pick 6 ticket single.
Interbet ROI competition winner week 10
ROI winner Pierrick Maujean (middle) leads in maiden winner Spanish Emblem with his partners at Scottville earlier this year.
Racehorse owner Pierrick Maujean has won the Interbet Return on Investment competition for the period 10th to 16th August. Congratulations Pierrick, your prize of R2000 has been credited direct to your Interbet account.
Pierrick is an IT consultant based in Durban and owns shares in a number of horses trained by Doug Campbell. His ROI victory came off the back of a winning 10% Pick 6 ticket at Clairwood on Sunday, netting him in excess of R6k from an investment of only R250.
Pics from the Craig Eudey yard
Maritime Mist, seen here basking in the morning sun on Monday following her win last week, will now be given a rest and some time on the farm before returning later this year in the hunt for black type up in JHB.
Thandolwami picked up an injury in the Vodacom Durban July and was given time off to recover. He recently returned to Summerveld and had his first day back in work Monday this week. (pictured)
Remember, Interbet’s mobile betting site in now operational, use it to bet when you’re on the move and without access to a computer - www.interbetsa.mobi
Cheers and happy punting..
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