What does MDK really know?

Barry Irwin Wrote:

> Even though technology is available to be used to
> determine a horse's readiness to perform well, the
> betting and handicapping of horse racing is and
> always will be an art, not a science.
>
> Those that do well in racing rarely complain about
> the stuff you write about. That is left as grist
> for the mill of the rumor mongers and losers.
>
> Interestingly, no matter the locale, no matter the
> amount of information provided for bettors, the
> winning percentages of favorites has remained
> steady for the better part of 50 years.


Barry, I would like to share a different perspective about your use of the word "art". Art can be defined as either a skill, or having an ability, or a knack to do something.

What is interesting, is your use of the word "art" in relation to handicapping.

Handicapping equates to levelling the playing field..Did you ever level the playing field...guess not
Well, handicapping certainly is a knack... in horseracing, a knack to reign in the better talent, and bring it down to mediocre...to eliminate competition.

Now, help me to understand this
- would you give a 100m sprint athlete, more weight becuase he outsprints other athletes.
- would you want me to slow my pace, so that my fellow country man can keep up.
- should a champiom F1 driver be placed at the back of the starting grid, because he has better driving skills.

And now to our skilled handicappers...hey Barry, they use science don't they, or should it be a combination of maths and science.., unless they arrive at their weight allocation artistically


You are contradicting yourself at the expense of finding fault with Andrewest valid views.... perchance Andrewest may be cutting too close to the bone

I fail to understand how betting and handicapping can be, to quote your words "an art"...

As for your other comment "those that do well in racing, rarely complain", well I guess your statement speaks for itself.

And, I guess computers, were probably designed by some artist.

Something else you need to consider, after 50 years of experience, you may be a bit blinkered in your views,

when an American uses the word handicapping it means to analyze the form before placing a bet.

No computer can figure out who is going to win a race than a human being.

Barry,
most industries have been revolutionised in the last 20 years.
and it has always been done by people from outside that industry.
and the people inside the industry all got angry and made silly mistakes, then got fired or retrenched..
evaluate the Phumelela model..see who got fired..retrenched..the old hands..could not accept the change..

right now, even the USA auto industry is being revolutionised, by a telco guy who admits...6 months ago he knew nothing about the auto industry.
all using computer systems..with MIS systems..that allowed them to do data mining, neurual networks, cubes and patterns..

much like a chess program on the computer..the program stores your moves(patterns) and learns your style.. after a while you cannot beat the computer..

same will happen to racing in the next 2 years..worldwide..either we will be part of the solution or become a statistic in history like MR..

as for MDK not speaking to us..it was his choice..his perrogative..
never seen him on the horses back, hence my common sense tells me..he goes by hearsay...you are right...too much hearsay in the industry..

better to ask the jockey that does the work riding and confirm with the chemical engineers that have EPO in their baskets..
as a matter of fact, we did speak one day.. last race turfontein..his horse was 16/1..road to jerusalem (think that was the name)..we told his box to back it..we did..our box collected more than R500k..hope they made some money..

also remember when the entire floor wanted to frequent our box...a president of a african country partied with us....suddenly we were no longer "common people" with "new money"...but sought after neigbours...lol...and we got pissed...asscreaping at its best...


as for people doing well in the industry..yep you are correct..they dont say a word..cannot afford to speak up..they are all on salaries...a few years away from retirement...and cannot find jobs that pay the same..

as for an owner that does well..yet to find one with a ROI..
as for a jockey that retired well..looks like they become trainers...
as for a trainer that retired well..they take the EPO now to see out the distance
as for a bookmaker that retired well..most never handed in the guns..one bullet
as for a punter that makes a living from the industry for more than 5 years..


as for whether you like what I write, thats your choice..
I accept what you write, debate with you..but thats where it ends..
I dont like to change either...because I have to change every day..life changes..technology changes..and our preconceived ideas HAVE to change..

at school we were taught the sun sets in the west..
reality...the sun never sets..ask neil amstrong..he went to look..

by 2030..that is if we are still around..
we could be working for a computer..no jockeys..robot like humans riding the horses..
far fetched..
google "singularity" and "nanotechnology"...
the movie is out next month..november...
read up..watch the movie..then we talk again..


can change your blood dna today with 15 min "blood transfusion/dna alteration" exersize that will allow any one of us to stay 30 min under water..
stuff EPO..nanotechnology is far superior..

With EPO, we have over the last 10 years succeeded in making stayers run better.
where EPO doubles the red bloodcells, and allows double the oxygen in the horses blood, Nanotechnology will alter the existing red bloodcell DNA to hold double the oxygen within the same cel.

furthermore, the ensymes (little trucks- 1 ton) that carry the required products via the bloodstream to the muscles, can be altred (5 ton trucks) to carry more.

By next year, we will see super 1600 meter and further stayers emerge from bloodlines that we have never heard off.

guess that will have a major impact on the current blood lines and sires..???
suddely the rich will be poor and the poor be rich...
oil and gold will be worthless and access to technology worth trillions..

like globes that last longer than the normal 10,000 hours..
batteries that last for a lifetime..
tyres that dont wear out..
engines that run on water..

all been bought out by the rich, during the years to protect the rich...

and the jockey club...lost in the past..how will they test..basic chemistry set.

are you telling me that no racing jurisdictions test for EPO or darbopoetin?

They definitely test in SA for both..including random pre-race tests for elevated O2 blood levels.

Bearry what you like to win the Breeders this year?

Too early to tell Oscar. Ask me next week.

Andrewest,

I can only speak for myself, but my racing stable, irrespective of the investment in the horses, has turned in profit in 21 of the last 22 racing season.

As for cheating, I know a lot about how cheating is accomplished with drugs, both legal and illegal. I don't think you do. There is a lot more that goes into the mix than using a single agent like EPS. You talk a lot, but what you say lacks the ring of truth. Sounds like a lot of hearsay to me.

Barry,
impressive business model to turn 21 from 22 successfull years in the racing industry, especially during ressesions in 89, 98 and 08.
many a CEO should have rather hired your team as their consultants.
In RSA, not aware of a company that has come close to 21/22.
Most seem to be on course for 1/22.

Very diplomatic the statements from you...lol...
>>>>You talk a lot, but what you say lacks the ring of truth. Sounds like a lot of hearsay to me.>>>>>>>>

you are correct, it is hearsay, as I have never mixed the dope personally, never held the needle in my hand, never administered the needle..
or wrong needle to the wrong horse..in the wrong box..or wrong horse in the right box..or left box..
BUT.........................
I HAVE BACKED all of them that I KNEW about..
WIN, PLACE and bankered in the P6.....

as for the "RING OF TRUTH"..
I dont have a letter appointing me as the .......of the racing industry..
and the jockey club ain't no fav of mine..they are part of the problem..cover for the mates..
SO...IF I CANNOT BEAT THE C.....S...I CHEAT THEM OUT OF THEIR OWN MONEY..
AND WHEN THEY COMPLAIN...I SAY...LOOK WHO IS TALKING....



>>>>>>>Those that do well in racing rarely complain about the stuff you write about. That is left as grist for the mill of the rumor mongers and losers.
>>>>>>>>>

You have a point here..
the rumor mongers and losers are the general public.
the "also ran"..
the "wanna be"...
but they are the guys that make up the stake money for the guys that do well..
and true..the guys that do well dont punt..
they race for the stakes..the stakes that are supplied by the losers..
the guys that do well buy horses for a few millions..
race them for the stakes... millions..?????
and have insurance millions that pays out when the horse dies from internal ....??

the losers are so busy with the rumors and busy losing that they dont know or see what is really going on...???
all looking for a winner to back..

while the winners are looking for a horse to buy..

we have different views and opinions...I will stay with the rumor mongers and ....

Barry we wait in anticipation for your reply to Andre ..

Barry,

I like this statement...

What kind of credibility is it that you bring to the discussion when you admit to sitting right next to Mike de Kock at the races and have never had a conversation with him? What you bring is hearsay, of which there is way too much in this game.

Am I to assume that if someone knows MDK, that this someone suddenly becomes a credible man?

Perhaps, unlike the USA, in RSA we dont listen to trainers....because of hearsay..they dont get ontop of the horse...

we certainly don't hold them in high esteem...
and it's got nothing to do with the trainer or the work he does...
perhaps it's the Afrikaners religious belief that we will go to hell if we punt horses...
we would not walk around and claim to be a friend of trainer so and so, in fear of being laughed at.

the perception is perhaps created by the various black tie functions and brilliant marketing video's distributed, that we, consider these guys as heroes.
Andrew Bon does wonders with the camera...

the average punter will tell you..they are clueless..and I agree...
and looking at the sums, the guy has 150 horses..
do you seriously believe that he sees every horse at least one a day..
once a week..
once a month..

they are landlords..
renting out stables(flats) at a fortune, (flats they dont even own)
to guys that pay far too much for horses that cannot run...(girlfriends would be cheaper)

sure when a guy like you arive..
with international profile..
dollars by the millions...
our calculators (cheap ones from China) says error-4 when we multiply your dollars by the R7.67 exchange rate..
and a show is put up..
hollywood style...

same applies to jockeys..
spend 3 month with them in mauritius..
there they are treated as GODS...free drinks and food at any hotel or restaurant
here in RSA, they are treated as DOGS..

makes me think of an incident at the circus..
before the show..
the clown is in the ring..
making us all laugh..
suddenly the MEC comes in...What are you doing?
the clown.."nothing"
the mec..that's right..you are "nothing"!
the clown..are you my boss?
mec..yes I am your boss!
clown...must be great to be the boss of "nothing"


It seems, unlike the USA, the South African punter that has access to the internet, is a businessman or educated career individual in his own field, and view the trainers in a different light than you do.

Hence, trainers will romance the punters/owners in RSA and not the other way around..

Guess you understand why I have a good laugh at the statement made by you.
Never the less, you are my senior by 17 years, and I do acknowledge the fact that your have successfully created a business called Team Valour.
Would someone in RSA be able to do the same....