Temair...Barry Irwin Question

Barry,
I did not watch the race.
had no computerform(racecard for that day).
asked maxibet to supply me with the rating on the horse...we do the same rating

the rating works on atletic ability of the horse wrt the specific field that it is racing against.
no speed rating or merit ratings are considered.
purely atletic ability and relative position within the opening betting structure.

sounds strange...but true..




Re: MAXIBET - KENILWORTH 21/11/2009 Posted by: maxibet (IP Logged)
Date: November 21, 2009 09:12AM


Andre.

Sorry to inform you that Temair only had a rating of 16.
Not even in the top 4 final ratings.Had no chance going into the race with that low rating.Remember,any fav not in the top 3 selections battle to place nevermind win.

maxibet obviously knows a lot more than the official hcapers who according to their ratings temair was a certainty..as we know with racing sometimes horses dont always run up to expectations.as for maxibet would love to have my bets with you considering your posting that temair had no chance..

What is athletic ability? Put another way, if you ignore ratings and form what on earth are you left with?

Andrewest

this is extremely interesting to me.

expressing anything to do with any kind of effort against gravity without taking weight into account would mystify me.

What sort of basis do you use?

Was thinking the same thing , anybody rating Temair out the first 4 in that race need their heid examined..

Agreed, hib. Tryrng to justify it after the race scores no points.

Jack dash,

patterns
patterns
exclude KIM,PE,all other Africa states and Mauritius...olap required
works for the top tracks in RSA, UK
have not tested on USA, but should work perfectly.

but to be better, get scotia to convince crystal reports to load formgrids into cubes and give demo..
a new world will open..


what I do
rate the horse on atletic ability (maybe MR or SP can work too, never checked)
then sort the horses in decending sequence on rating, add the betting.

a few obvious patterns
1. if the horse has a very low rating, ie if last in the sort sequence and is priced up at 6/10...the horse will win..obviously an exception to the rule
no4 - 22 - 4/1
no7 - 21 - 10/1
no1 - 18 - 7/2
,,,
,,,
no3 - 7 - 6/10
2. if the horse has a very high rating, ie 25 or >, the second horse 17 or lower, irrespective of the betting, the horse will win
no4 - 28 - 5/1
no7 - 16 - 4/1
no1 - 15 - 8/1

3. if the horse has a very high rating, ie 25 or >, priced up as fav 12/10 or shorter, the 2nd horse > 10/1, the fav will win
no4 - 28 - 11/10
no7 - 25 - 10/1
no1 - 24 - 8/1
4. if all the horse have a rating below 20, put the field

no4 - 17 5/1
no7 - 16 6/1
no1 - 14 3/1
...
...

Still doesn't define athletic ability.

How do you get to your personal rating on athletic ability AW. Do you have a scientific system or is it a subjective opinion?

very simple

when looking at a horses results on formgrids

we see something like this
Horse 1
2nd
2nd
3rd
1st
4th

and Horse 2
5th
3rd
7th
5th
4th

Horse 1 at a glance looks like the better horse with results
2-2-3-1-4
and horse 2
5-3-7-5-4 lags behind in one's mind..

however
if we consider the following on the 2 horses
Horse 1
2nd from 5..beating 3 horses
2nd from 7..beating 5 horses
3rd from 10.beating 7 horses
1st from 6..beating 5 horses
4th from 8..beating 4 horses

and
and Horse 2
5th from 15..beating 10 horses
3rd from 12..beating 9 horses
7th from 18..beating 11 horses
5th from 16..beating 11 horses
4th from 17..beating 13 horses

horse 1 now 3-5-7-5-4..................add the last 2 races 5-4 and get rating 9
horse 2 now 10-9-11-11-13 and looks the better horse...11-13..and get rating 24

So....

A: 1st of 5, beats 4 -> 5 times in a row. Rating 8.
B: 15th of 20, beats 5 -> 5 times in a row. Rating 10.

B is better than A?

sabre
next step, add the betting

B-10- 8/1
A-8- 11/10
c-7- 20/1

will still punt A..
patterns you will see when you keep the data
hence my suggestion to scotia to get crystal to load the formgrids data into cubes..
the pattern maxibet was refering to...look something like this


B-25- 4/1
F-22- 20/1
C-20- 8/1
E-18- 10/1
I-18- 12/1
J-18- 7/1
K-17- 6/1
L-17- 9/2
A-16- 12/10
M-16- 14/1
D-15- 8/1


the fav not in the top half or 2/3 of the sorted results..
very seldom do they win, or even place.

take the above pattern...
put 100 simular patterns together where the fav did not make the top 50% or 67%..
and then view the results...
what percentage of the fav won..if any...