Covet a secret babe for Xmas..by Leon Setaro
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Covet a secret babe for Xmas..by Leon Setaro
15 years 6 months ago
The Xmas run-in is almost upon us and there’s only a few race meetings left before December arrives.. time to get the Xmas spirit rolling early before the month end onslaught of debits and society’s vice grip. We race midweek at Scottsville today and I was going to give this one a skip after being destroyed on Sunday at the cuntry track, but after a closer look at the card and a brief trip to Summerveld yesterday morning, my outlook has changed drastically. A browse through the opening betting later on in the day only added to the pre ‘big win’ joy because the bookies are off on another tangent altogether which equates to screaming good value when it’s needed most.
This is the meeting I go in heavy and at the end of the day if I’m wrong then I’ll have the bank balance to show for it! This Scottsville meeting embodies one of the fundamental reasons for punting – HOPE!! Hope that today is the day that things change for the better, and what better hope than the prospect of a high risk bulls-eye strike on the pahonies ka-ching!
Race 1
The hot favourite is out which leaves a field without a place amongst them barring No.1 Ritz Carlton and No.2 Bizley. These two are the only runners to consider on form but there is the possibility of major improvement from one of the unexposed 3 year olds to upset proceedings. Bookies have identified No.12 Southern Heights as the improver, currently priced up favourite at 2/1. This leaves Ritz Carlton out at a generous 9/2, and Bizley, similarly well in at 5/1. When speaking to Stuart Ferry (assistant to trainer Dennis Drier) yesterday morning I hadn’t seen the betting at that stage and didn’t give Southern Heights a thought at the time.. so I didn’t ask him for the scoop. He made no mention either of Southern Heights when deciding on the ‘stable best’ for the day. Remember that Bookies make their living by laying favourites so you’re in good company when doing the same and this looks like a good race to put this to the test.
Ritz Carlton and Bisley are likely to struggle once they get out the maidens so Southern Heights won’t need to be a superstar to beat them but taking into account the betting, the gamble is surely in favour of the two professionally successful maidens. They’ve met each other on two previous occasions and Bizley has come out on top both times however it’s not that cut and dried today. Their latest meeting was on Saturday night where Ritz Carlton ran no kind of race, the likely reason being that the starting gate struck him in the face when they jumped. I spoke to Dylan Cunha yesterday and he relayed jockey Paddy Wynne’s comments that a line should be put through the run as he took no interest after the knock. He has recovered well and his usual honest effort is expected once again. The other time they met was back in September where Bizley prevailed by a head over Ritz Carlton but can he do it again today? Ritz Carlton put in his best run to date over today’s course and distance when drawn wide much like today, he skipped many lengths clear on that occasion only to be collared at the death.. a repeat of that run speedy run may well be enough to turn the tables on Bizley but it could go either way. I also spoke with the Lunns at Summerveld yesterday morning and they’re expecting another form effort from Bizley as well so it would appear that we have a possible match race to start off the day’s proceedings unless the favourite squeezes somewhere in between.
Race 2
Another interesting analysis by the Bookies in the 2nd race because No.12 Stage Star on form looks to have a big chance yet this is not reflected in his price. He’s run close-up seconds in his only two starts to date (both) at Greyville, despite being out of his ground and in no kind of winning position on both occasions. His first run he lost lengths at the jump and had to come flying in from nowhere too late, and his second start he was drawn wide and had to fall in at the losing end, again too far back to have a fair chance. A race down the straight is just what he’s looking for, no excuses this time he has to hit pay dirt. Retail price 5/2, Interbet stretch 33/10
Stage Star set to do business in the 2nd
It’s certainly no walk in the park this maiden field and there are a few runners worth mentioning. Bookies consider No.4 Emperor Rising to be the one to beat, he opened up a marginal favourite at 2/1 but has since drifted out to 5/2 (7/2 on Interbet) now joint favourite with Stage Star. An obvious chance if he repeats his debut effort but I’m not convinced he’s any sort of betting proposition at the price and the assumption that he will deliver. Laff rates his charge Cool Combo 6/1 (8/1 on Interbet) highly and he’s sure to improve after needing his last run (see caption). Of the rest, there’s a few with form strong enough to warrant inclusion but Stage Star at 33/10 is the value option of the lot
Cool Combo is highly regarded by the stable. Needed his last run after
knee chip removal surgery and a lengthy recovery period.
Race 3
Jockey Muzi Yeni is well placed to hook a quick double here (to follow up on Stage Star) where he rides No.1 Our Kate at 18/10 (5/2 Interbet) who has ultra consistent form, is race fit and has everything in her favour here today. The only apparent danger is No.4 Rule the Roost who’s penultimate run behind Bit of Bizet is noteworthy in that Bit of Bizet has since won again the horse than ran second won his maiden easy next time out. If there’s anything to threaten these two then it could be No.5 Devonian who certainly has the ability to win a race of this nature but hasn’t been at her best for sometime now and can’t be selected with any confidence. Once again, this looks to be a match race - Our Kate vs Rule the Roost
Race 4
A repeat of his last effort where he won by more than 14 lengths over the same track and trip should see No.1 Aikido at 3/1 (7/2 Interbet) doddle in against this sort of competition despite the MR hike. Whether he puts in a repeat remains to be seen and thus presents the gamble pivot. If not, there are many waiting to capitalize.
The day’s betting plans hinge on the winning arrival of Secret Babe (7/1) in the 7th race.
Race 7presents the main interest for the day and best value too in the form of the 3year old Secret Babe. At 7/1 she must be up against some serious competition if the bookies have this race analyzed correctly –
No.1 Silvery Cove is a lukewarm race favourite at 7/2 (4/1 Interbet) and has been campaigning against considerably stronger but pays the price here with a hefty 63.5kgs to shoulder. Obvious chance but the weight is a concern. The 5year old mare No.12 Latin Lady comes in 2nd on the bookie boards at 5/1 and she brings a very strong recent formline to the party. She’s finished close up and in the placings behind Case Stated and Clarkie’s Promise and both these fillies have won their last 3 starts on the trot so on paper that puts her strongly in the picture. Having said that, I don’t think too much can be read into it because neither of the two fillies were pressured to win and only did what was necessary to get home in front. Next up is No.9 Secret Babe at 6/1 (7/1 Interbet) and she is the joker in the pack at this price. I was expecting more along the lines of 3/1 on opening considering the promise she’s shown but perhaps that just a biased outlook considering I did make a big score on her last time out. She’s only just won her maiden but there’s lots to like about her record so far. Last time out she beat Il Tanga (also in this race) as she liked and Il Tanga followed up with a very easy win next time. Prior to that she chased Foreign Trade all the way to the line in a titanic struggle down the Clairwood straight which put 11 lengths between them and the 3rd horse. Foreign Trade went on to win again on Sunday albeit against a moderate field. Secret Babe is rated by the stable and assistance trainer Stuart Ferry believes she’s good enough to win this sort of race.
One that may prove to be the biggest threat of all is Mark Dixon’s No.11 Mike’s Ideal at 7/1 (10/1 Interbet). She put in a scintillating performance at Clairwood 2 runs back to beat Mill Key Way by many lengths into 2nd and Milky Way then went on to frank the form. Mike’s Ideal last run was on Saturday night at Greyville where she finished just out the placings after making the pace for most of the way. According to trainer Mark Dixon she’s come out of the race well and is fit and ready for another go here.
Race 8
One to watch out for here is Umngazi at 8/1 (10/1 Interbet) also from the Dixon yard, and Mark reports that he’s jumping out his skin super-fit at the moment and a big run is expected. Unfortunately he’s poorly drawn and it’s not going to be easy to get over in a race loaded with speedsters likely to vie for the early lead. Take a look at his penultimate start though where carrying 59kgs, he got within 1.25 lengths of Martial Eagle (carrying 52kgs) who broke the course record in that race! There doesn’t seem to be anything in this field that could put a display like that together so if Umngazi brings his A-game which he should, he’s the one to beat here and at a price (10/1) that in no way reflects his strong wining chance.
Race 9
Last month I previewed a maiden race where 3 horses were expected to fight out the finish in a strong maiden field. As it turned they were left to fight for minor placing scraps behind 40/1 shot Mack M who gunned them down to win from behind. Makulu-kulu was in that race and he finished 4th, with Delotto and Macho One in front of him. I’ve made the statement a few times that these three (Delotto, Makulu-kulu and Macho One) will all pop their maidens next time out; Delotto has gone on to win since, Macho One hasn’t yet resurfaced and today Makulu-kulu gets his chance at 13/10 (2/1 Interbet). With the scratching of Pieces of Eight his main danger, the pathway to maiden victory looks all clear as he steps back down to 1400m, a distance likely to be more manageable at this stage.
To summarise, if you’re looking for a big score then the risk/reward proposition of the day comes in the form of Secret Babe in the 7th race at 7/1 with Ritz Carlton 9/2 (race 1) and Stage Star 33/10 (race 2) both up early on to set the play. The way forward may be doubles [Ritz Carlton-Secret Babe] and [Stage Star-Secret Babe] which will punch out massive odds considering the chances of a payoff - NB-yes for gambling souls.
Our Kate in the 3rd looks set for a surefire top-two finish which means potential value in the exacta package if you can find the other one. The day’s plan is to connect early with one or more winners across the 1st 3 races and then head into the 7th with sufficient gains to cover Secret Babe should the unspeakable happen and she sinks the gameplan. Enter Mike’s Ideal, perhaps a bit of Latin Lady, Silvery Cove as insurance.. exactas a must to keep all angles covered. Later on there’s still 10/1 on Umngazi which is a definite take considering Dixon’s comments on his fitness. Makulu-kulu may not be the one to get out a hole with but nothing wrong with a bit of 2/1 on a good thing when you’re already up on the day.
All the best and remember that a good thing at 7/1 (a one in 8 chance of winning) doesn’t mean a guaranteed once off win, it means that if you play out the perceived chance/odds scenario over 8 races, you are likely to score before your 8 chances to break even are up.
This is the meeting I go in heavy and at the end of the day if I’m wrong then I’ll have the bank balance to show for it! This Scottsville meeting embodies one of the fundamental reasons for punting – HOPE!! Hope that today is the day that things change for the better, and what better hope than the prospect of a high risk bulls-eye strike on the pahonies ka-ching!
Race 1
The hot favourite is out which leaves a field without a place amongst them barring No.1 Ritz Carlton and No.2 Bizley. These two are the only runners to consider on form but there is the possibility of major improvement from one of the unexposed 3 year olds to upset proceedings. Bookies have identified No.12 Southern Heights as the improver, currently priced up favourite at 2/1. This leaves Ritz Carlton out at a generous 9/2, and Bizley, similarly well in at 5/1. When speaking to Stuart Ferry (assistant to trainer Dennis Drier) yesterday morning I hadn’t seen the betting at that stage and didn’t give Southern Heights a thought at the time.. so I didn’t ask him for the scoop. He made no mention either of Southern Heights when deciding on the ‘stable best’ for the day. Remember that Bookies make their living by laying favourites so you’re in good company when doing the same and this looks like a good race to put this to the test.
Ritz Carlton and Bisley are likely to struggle once they get out the maidens so Southern Heights won’t need to be a superstar to beat them but taking into account the betting, the gamble is surely in favour of the two professionally successful maidens. They’ve met each other on two previous occasions and Bizley has come out on top both times however it’s not that cut and dried today. Their latest meeting was on Saturday night where Ritz Carlton ran no kind of race, the likely reason being that the starting gate struck him in the face when they jumped. I spoke to Dylan Cunha yesterday and he relayed jockey Paddy Wynne’s comments that a line should be put through the run as he took no interest after the knock. He has recovered well and his usual honest effort is expected once again. The other time they met was back in September where Bizley prevailed by a head over Ritz Carlton but can he do it again today? Ritz Carlton put in his best run to date over today’s course and distance when drawn wide much like today, he skipped many lengths clear on that occasion only to be collared at the death.. a repeat of that run speedy run may well be enough to turn the tables on Bizley but it could go either way. I also spoke with the Lunns at Summerveld yesterday morning and they’re expecting another form effort from Bizley as well so it would appear that we have a possible match race to start off the day’s proceedings unless the favourite squeezes somewhere in between.
Race 2
Another interesting analysis by the Bookies in the 2nd race because No.12 Stage Star on form looks to have a big chance yet this is not reflected in his price. He’s run close-up seconds in his only two starts to date (both) at Greyville, despite being out of his ground and in no kind of winning position on both occasions. His first run he lost lengths at the jump and had to come flying in from nowhere too late, and his second start he was drawn wide and had to fall in at the losing end, again too far back to have a fair chance. A race down the straight is just what he’s looking for, no excuses this time he has to hit pay dirt. Retail price 5/2, Interbet stretch 33/10
Stage Star set to do business in the 2nd
It’s certainly no walk in the park this maiden field and there are a few runners worth mentioning. Bookies consider No.4 Emperor Rising to be the one to beat, he opened up a marginal favourite at 2/1 but has since drifted out to 5/2 (7/2 on Interbet) now joint favourite with Stage Star. An obvious chance if he repeats his debut effort but I’m not convinced he’s any sort of betting proposition at the price and the assumption that he will deliver. Laff rates his charge Cool Combo 6/1 (8/1 on Interbet) highly and he’s sure to improve after needing his last run (see caption). Of the rest, there’s a few with form strong enough to warrant inclusion but Stage Star at 33/10 is the value option of the lot
Cool Combo is highly regarded by the stable. Needed his last run after
knee chip removal surgery and a lengthy recovery period.
Race 3
Jockey Muzi Yeni is well placed to hook a quick double here (to follow up on Stage Star) where he rides No.1 Our Kate at 18/10 (5/2 Interbet) who has ultra consistent form, is race fit and has everything in her favour here today. The only apparent danger is No.4 Rule the Roost who’s penultimate run behind Bit of Bizet is noteworthy in that Bit of Bizet has since won again the horse than ran second won his maiden easy next time out. If there’s anything to threaten these two then it could be No.5 Devonian who certainly has the ability to win a race of this nature but hasn’t been at her best for sometime now and can’t be selected with any confidence. Once again, this looks to be a match race - Our Kate vs Rule the Roost
Race 4
A repeat of his last effort where he won by more than 14 lengths over the same track and trip should see No.1 Aikido at 3/1 (7/2 Interbet) doddle in against this sort of competition despite the MR hike. Whether he puts in a repeat remains to be seen and thus presents the gamble pivot. If not, there are many waiting to capitalize.
The day’s betting plans hinge on the winning arrival of Secret Babe (7/1) in the 7th race.
Race 7presents the main interest for the day and best value too in the form of the 3year old Secret Babe. At 7/1 she must be up against some serious competition if the bookies have this race analyzed correctly –
No.1 Silvery Cove is a lukewarm race favourite at 7/2 (4/1 Interbet) and has been campaigning against considerably stronger but pays the price here with a hefty 63.5kgs to shoulder. Obvious chance but the weight is a concern. The 5year old mare No.12 Latin Lady comes in 2nd on the bookie boards at 5/1 and she brings a very strong recent formline to the party. She’s finished close up and in the placings behind Case Stated and Clarkie’s Promise and both these fillies have won their last 3 starts on the trot so on paper that puts her strongly in the picture. Having said that, I don’t think too much can be read into it because neither of the two fillies were pressured to win and only did what was necessary to get home in front. Next up is No.9 Secret Babe at 6/1 (7/1 Interbet) and she is the joker in the pack at this price. I was expecting more along the lines of 3/1 on opening considering the promise she’s shown but perhaps that just a biased outlook considering I did make a big score on her last time out. She’s only just won her maiden but there’s lots to like about her record so far. Last time out she beat Il Tanga (also in this race) as she liked and Il Tanga followed up with a very easy win next time. Prior to that she chased Foreign Trade all the way to the line in a titanic struggle down the Clairwood straight which put 11 lengths between them and the 3rd horse. Foreign Trade went on to win again on Sunday albeit against a moderate field. Secret Babe is rated by the stable and assistance trainer Stuart Ferry believes she’s good enough to win this sort of race.
One that may prove to be the biggest threat of all is Mark Dixon’s No.11 Mike’s Ideal at 7/1 (10/1 Interbet). She put in a scintillating performance at Clairwood 2 runs back to beat Mill Key Way by many lengths into 2nd and Milky Way then went on to frank the form. Mike’s Ideal last run was on Saturday night at Greyville where she finished just out the placings after making the pace for most of the way. According to trainer Mark Dixon she’s come out of the race well and is fit and ready for another go here.
Race 8
One to watch out for here is Umngazi at 8/1 (10/1 Interbet) also from the Dixon yard, and Mark reports that he’s jumping out his skin super-fit at the moment and a big run is expected. Unfortunately he’s poorly drawn and it’s not going to be easy to get over in a race loaded with speedsters likely to vie for the early lead. Take a look at his penultimate start though where carrying 59kgs, he got within 1.25 lengths of Martial Eagle (carrying 52kgs) who broke the course record in that race! There doesn’t seem to be anything in this field that could put a display like that together so if Umngazi brings his A-game which he should, he’s the one to beat here and at a price (10/1) that in no way reflects his strong wining chance.
Race 9
Last month I previewed a maiden race where 3 horses were expected to fight out the finish in a strong maiden field. As it turned they were left to fight for minor placing scraps behind 40/1 shot Mack M who gunned them down to win from behind. Makulu-kulu was in that race and he finished 4th, with Delotto and Macho One in front of him. I’ve made the statement a few times that these three (Delotto, Makulu-kulu and Macho One) will all pop their maidens next time out; Delotto has gone on to win since, Macho One hasn’t yet resurfaced and today Makulu-kulu gets his chance at 13/10 (2/1 Interbet). With the scratching of Pieces of Eight his main danger, the pathway to maiden victory looks all clear as he steps back down to 1400m, a distance likely to be more manageable at this stage.
To summarise, if you’re looking for a big score then the risk/reward proposition of the day comes in the form of Secret Babe in the 7th race at 7/1 with Ritz Carlton 9/2 (race 1) and Stage Star 33/10 (race 2) both up early on to set the play. The way forward may be doubles [Ritz Carlton-Secret Babe] and [Stage Star-Secret Babe] which will punch out massive odds considering the chances of a payoff - NB-yes for gambling souls.
Our Kate in the 3rd looks set for a surefire top-two finish which means potential value in the exacta package if you can find the other one. The day’s plan is to connect early with one or more winners across the 1st 3 races and then head into the 7th with sufficient gains to cover Secret Babe should the unspeakable happen and she sinks the gameplan. Enter Mike’s Ideal, perhaps a bit of Latin Lady, Silvery Cove as insurance.. exactas a must to keep all angles covered. Later on there’s still 10/1 on Umngazi which is a definite take considering Dixon’s comments on his fitness. Makulu-kulu may not be the one to get out a hole with but nothing wrong with a bit of 2/1 on a good thing when you’re already up on the day.
All the best and remember that a good thing at 7/1 (a one in 8 chance of winning) doesn’t mean a guaranteed once off win, it means that if you play out the perceived chance/odds scenario over 8 races, you are likely to score before your 8 chances to break even are up.
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Re: Re: Covet a secret babe for Xmas..by Leon Setaro
15 years 6 months ago
Unlucky there 
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