On a drifter's back By Leon Setaro

On a drifter's back
By Leon Setaro

Non-stop rain all week has wiped out tonight’s meeting scheduled for Greyville and we can only hope that the butt kickin’card for Scottsville does not go the same way! Apparently they’ve had less rain up there so racing is still in the clear but with more H2O forecast for the duration of the weekend, it’s a gloomy outlook for KZN at this stage. A real pity because it’s a money maker meet begging investment up in the midlands on Sunday.. for now though it’s a waiting game. If we race, then look for the run-down Sunday morning on the Interbet mobi-news site using your cellphone – news.interbet.co.za or through one of the Interbet affiliated news sites at a computer near you.

For those who followed this column and the Touch the Moon story last weekend and put the cash down on Interbet, well you’ll know what I’m talking about when I say the victory was made all the sweeter by her hurricane drift off the boards from even money (1/1) right out to an incredible 7/1!!. In the end, a wager of mind-boggling value by anyone’s standards. These are the ones to bite on, the ones that drift into the high value zone; don’t be put off when the price improves, get stuck in! Sure the stable believed in, and disseminated the infamous ‘will need it’ comment, and that has to raise slight concerns but at 7/1 who’s listening to anything but the anticipated ring ring kaching! of a winning strike. I’ve said it before and will do so again, a horse’s performance and finishing position in a race, cannot be reliably predicted based on a once-a-day canter on the sand over a mere few hundred meters. Trainers use the formguide just like the rest of us and every so often for any number of reasons, it’s possible to plot a coup based on trackwork and stable info alone. The rest of the time, it’s down to luck and hope. Just remember that when it comes to the ‘will need a run’ comment, take it in context with all the other variables involved, nothing is written in stone until the green light flashes post race.


It takes more than a betting drift to stop a good horse! Two Tone (pictured winning two weeks back at Greyville night racing) defies the market indicators that he’d get beaten, and brings home the value in fine style at the 5/2 out from an opening call of 8/10!

Now the drift is not always pre-empted by a perception of what’s going on at the stable. Money flooding onto another horse in the race can have the same effect although usually not as drastic. We saw it 2 weeks back when the highly rated Two Tone, unbeaten in two starts, opened 8/10 and drifted out to 5/2 by race time. Money came flooding in for the 2nd favourite from the Drier yard and this in all likelihood, was caused by Bookies trading amongst each other to lay off potential winning Dennis Drier doubles (first one had romped in the race before). When punters get wind of this type of action they immediately think there’s ‘business’ going on and that secret info has leaked, so they get sucked in to nothing more than punter/owner hope of a stable double. Bottom line, Two Tone had the field at his mercy on form, hence the initial price up of 8/10. The drift was baseless in merit and offered the form-studier a ‘printing money’ opportunity for mountains of value vs winning chance.

..And then there’s the occasion when a ‘form-cert’ goes on the drift until the money for it slows, yet without any significant activity on another runner in the race, and for no apparent reason at all. Could it be a deliberate manipulation to lead punters away from a ‘good thing’, or is it something safer like the bookies merely looking to tempt more turnover into the mix and hope the good thing gets rolled. There’s always a story and a conspiracy theory behind every move made in the racing game, the bulk of punters are completely detached from racing’s realities and in the absence of truth, all sorts of suspicious and superstitious nonsense is propagated.

Something else to make a note of is the ‘rested’ comment in the racecard and computaform. Beware, this can be downright opposite to the fact! I have found it to be a common occurrence that a horse comes into a race with the ‘rested’ tag officially attached, yet there has actually been no kind of rest at all, and the reason for a racing absence is nothing more than no suitable race available, or the draws have been bad. The horse has been in full work the whole time yet the racecard informs us of a ‘rest’.

When all is said and done, there will be runs where the drifting favourites win, there will be runs where the shortening favourites win, and then there will be all the variations in between. Be prepared to be in a constant state of change when it comes to your betting loyalties and rather keep in the zone by following the winning trends whatever they may be. Stables, jockeys, owners, even bookies, they all get their winning and losing streaks and for the astute punter who has no attachments or vested interests in any one party, the freedom is there to follow the perceived winning trail, wherever it may lead.
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Whilst KZN racing crumbles this weekend we’re in for a treat from the other major centres because the Met buildup gets straight into action. Primary contenders Pocket Power and Big City Life are set to do battle at level weights over the Kenilworth 1500m on Saturday but that’s not all. At Turffontein, highveld hopefuls Seattle Ice and Dan De Lago go head to head and get the Met portrait underway up there, and just as interesting, Mother Russia (also entered for the Met) goes into a battle with Azzie’s ultra promising Queen’s Bay, who eats everything she meets for breakfast. In the unlikely event that she beats Mother Russia tomorrow, then we had better snap to attention and take serious notes for the future with this filly.