Greyville tonight-Bank on Tropical Empire value by Leon Setaro

Bank on Tropical Empire value

KZN racing returns to Greyville for night time action on Saturday where an 8 race program is scheduled at the city track. At this stage the weather forecast is all clear for a change so for those of you out on a limb, here’s to the trimming of losing streak wings! Cheers.


Tropical Empire pictured winning the Bettingworld 1900 last season.

If you’re looking for a good thing, KZN star Tropical Empire is the standout athlete on a highly competitive and evenly matched race card and this should be an absolute stroll in the park for him. Priced up early at 18/10, expect this to be swiftly crunched when word gets out that he’s doing well at home and is expected to deliver a true to form performance.

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Leg1 – race 3

No.16 Minwa is the short priced favourite at 15/10 after having finished 2nd on debut last month. She is rated by the stable and has obvious claims at first glance, but the deciding factor here is going to be how much she improves from the experience. She ran on well and was only getting going late but it was a weak field where 6 out of the 7 horses that have raced since, have failed to find a place. There’s little worth remembering about the race, they were all on top of each other at the death and Minwa is going to have to find a few lengths if she is to have a winning chance against this much stronger field. No.15 Enrichment (9/2) on the other hand, comes in with form that has been carried forward far more successfully because her last race has produced 2 wins and 5 places from 12 subsequent races so far. Last time out she kicked on strongly over the last 200m and just failed to catch race winner Western Gem who has subsequently placed against winners. That race was over the Greyville 1000m and judging by the performance, Enrichment should be well suited to the extra 400m here. Her finishing times down the straight are excellent and she looks to be the one they all have to beat. Of the rest, there’s 6 other runners (No.1 Super Sunday, No.6 Maphiko, No.7 Carla’s Wisdom, No.3 Detectorist, No.2 Byculla, No.4 Hoodat) with strong-knocking maiden form, all poised for their first victory anytime now which makes this an expensive race to cover all bases should the top two fail.

Leg 2 – race4

This in the only race that can be narrowed down with confidence for the evening, leaving all to revolve around No.1 Tropical Empire (18/10F) who decimated a similar sort of field to this two runs back when producing one of the most effortless wins seen in KZN this season. His last run was in JHB where he didn’t feature and that run is best ignored as things did not go his way. Trainer Duncan Howells is ‘conservatively confident’ and reports that he is prepping Tropical Empire for a future race so he is not at peak, but likes to race fresh and is a class act and fit enough to win. The two principle dangers are likely to be No.2 Thandolwami (4/1) and No.6 Don’t Tell Titch (6/1), and they were both left eating Tropical Empire dust when they met last time in October (same race as mentioned earlier). If Tropical Empire goes amiss, these two will be there to capitalize. No.11 Thanks Dad (7/1) is a hard knocking campaigner and with the 4kg claim and front running tactics, he could hold on to upset should the primaries fail to deliver. The much hyped No.9 Lord London (6/1) has been plagued with problems and has yet to fulfill earlier promise. Although unlikely to win at this stage, his run should be noted and this is one to follow if he can get back into things. No.5 Speed for Gold (16/1) is top class on his day but he’s been off the racetracks for well over a year and is likely to need the run and a longer distance.

Leg 3 – race5

A very difficult race where nothing stands out and a few are needed to have any sort of confidence of getting through this leg. No.1 Rise Again (7/2F) has impressive form against stronger but comes back from a long break which could mean anything. No.7 Pick of the Bunch (8/1) is talented on her day which puts her in a similar boat to Rise Again in that they should be able to hold off this sort of competition if delivering their best. All of No.2 Pointing East, No.4 Travel Light, No.6 Sunset Beach, No.8 The Kiss and No.9 Pocket a Pound recently won their maidens impressively and could bring any amount of improvement to the table. No.3 Racy Lady (20/1) returns from a rest and her last run can be forgiven having been reportedly coughing. Prior to that she was twice in the features after winning first time out. Another big price outsider worth including is No.15 Karenina (40/1), her recent form may be uninspiring but she has the ability to feature at best and will chop all the tickets if she does win. A point to note is that No.12 Laughing Angel (16/1) has only ever placed or won when racing at Greyville, this is her second run after a rest and she is another that could sneak in.

Leg 4 – race6

No.1 Orbison is the short priced favourite at 1/1 and he’s heading out beyond this graduation plate level. Having said that he’s not alone because No.2 Hawk Eagle (4/1) and No.3 Dolomite (5/2) also have promising form and any one of these could show further improvement to streak away. No.8 Emerald Wells (14/1) is rated by the stable but has put in two very poor recent efforts and could surprise if he turns things around. No.7 Badger’s Bomb’s (14/1) form story is much the same, two bad last runs and good form before that. Duncan Howells rates No.4 Knight to Remember (8/1) as a very decent up and coming horse and is expecting a big run, although he did caution this is a competitive field.

Leg 5 – race7

Yet another tough one with some excellent fillies in the mix. No.2 Case Stated (18/10F) blotted her unbeaten record last time out when putting in no kind of performance, she’s much better than that and comes in as one of the primary contenders. This time last year No.6 Kushoni Langa (5/1) fired off two wins in a row in Cape Town and then headed the way of KZN for the winter season but failed to deliver. Following a string of disappointing performances, she has now bounced back and put in an eye catching display last time out when easily accounting for the decent filly Secret Babe. It will be no surprise to see her win again and she is a must include in the Pick6. No.5 Tea Break (5/1) has also caught the eye in recent months and has shown she’s good enough to win this type of race. No.7 Sostanza (12/1) comes in with a significant weight advantage over the main contenders and based on her run behind Impossible Dream, she’s got enough ability to contest here as well. No.3 Smangaliso (3/1) looked like a KZN star in the making early on in her career but fizzled out to a string of moderate performances. Her last run however was an improvement and she could now be on the comeback trail.

Leg 6 – race8

No.2 Big Light (2/1) has come back firing after the break, this is a decent race horse but he has been plagued with leg problems. If they’ve got him right, he will be huge runner in this field. No.1 Omega Warrior (15/10F) has obvious claims and must be included although the doubts start to stir after 3 in a row.. all to often we see the 4th successive win fail to materialize. No.5 Night Time (10/1) will be looking for the extra and is promising more to come. No.3 Norse Sky (4/1) has impeccable form at Greyville night racing and has the advantage of a good draw.
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To surmise, Tropical Empire looks well worth a straight win bet at 18/10 and Enrichment is great value at 9/2. A double with these two will return 15/1 and if you’re really hungry, add in Orbison for a treble at the odds of around 31/1.

Pick 6 selections

NB. This is a 4 way split Pick6 structured to cover the unforeseen. In order for them to work effectively together, all 4 must be taken to provide ‘roughie’ cover across multiple legs whilst keeping the costs down.


Pick 6

I usually just get the pin out,thanks Leon..

Well done Leon and Bob that looks like a lot of hard work so will have a go at your selections

cheers!

Include the Tarry old boy, Folk Lightining......

double....dolomite and tea break.... win and place doubles...thats hoping big time... this is greyville after all

Kushoni Langa looks a very decent bet.

I have Day by Day running in the 2nd.

Working very well back home.

A bit worried by the wide draw.

Thank you Leon bad for the blood pressure but well done!

My luck goes like this.

the only punt I have had today due to a MASSIVE snow storm here on the Eastern seaboard of the US, was thanks Dad, and only because of something my wife said to me last night.......

What happens. There is only one horse in the race...until RIGHT on the line.............

I'm done for a while. No more punting and certainly no more tipping until my form has changed!!

Best of luck to all!!

Tommy not a game for the weak, dont stay away too long.