Syndicates for National Yearling Sales?

Anybody intrested in forming a syndicate for the upcoming national yearling sales,some trainers have asked me to put something together for any intrested parties. I personally believe that its not the correct sale to do this as the prices are inflated,but ill pass you onto the trainers if anybody is intrested.My experience recommends the August ready to run sale,is value for money,however if you cash flush your national yearling sales will give you a larger selection to choose from.A word of warning guys its like a "lucky packet"beware of burning your fingers to keep trainers happy,as the horse does not know his price.

Evening Zoro happy with a share in something?
Would prefer ready to run, could you arrange a trade in with CC??

Just bought the weekend edition of the Sporting Post; included is another EXCELLENT edition of a Sele Supplement for the NYS 2010 - great work by the Sporting Post guys. Especially sobering is to have a look at a table called 'Millionaires Row' - I had a quick glance but can't find ONE horse whose earnings has exceeded it's buying price of R1 million plus - granted, a few like Warm White Night and Noordhoek Flyer still has the potential to do so (especially if they go on to be stallions) and overseas earnings are not shown - but overall I am sure breeders can't be too happy to see these kind of stats.

Must say watched a show with Jimmy and Bonski on Black Minnalouche, I am sure will cost a bomb for the babies but we can all dream. -

Frodo Wrote:

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> Just bought the weekend edition of the Sporting
> Post; included is another EXCELLENT edition of a
> Sele Supplement for the NYS 2010 - great work by
> the Sporting Post guys. Especially sobering is to
> have a look at a table called 'Millionaires Row' -
> I had a quick glance but can't find ONE horse
> whose earnings has exceeded it's buying price of
> R1 million plus - granted, a few like Warm White
> Night and Noordhoek Flyer still has the potential
> to do so (especially if they go on to be
> stallions) and overseas earnings are not shown -
> but overall I am sure breeders can't be too happy
> to see these kind of stats.

Frodo i think putting a number on a horse (R1 Million) may be wrong to assess these "special sales"- i'd like to find out how many of the horses sold at the NYS actually recoup JUST their purchase price? Especially those priced above 200k - I think you'll be suprised at the results - I think it's difficult to find a horse to recoup your capital at the really big sales unless he proves to be a star. You really have to punt your horse if you want to break even or show a profit I think

Yes Mr H, this is not a sale for the 'little' guys like me - as you say it would be interesting to have figures available to compare the % of horses recouping their purchase price between this sale and other sales.

Frodo -

I am not defending the horse industry when I say this but it should not be looked at as a money making venture by owners bur rather the optimistic pursuit of a fantasy or dream. Unfortunately the spin surrounding sales sees worn out descriptions such as 'investment' raise their heads each year. In my early racing career old timers used to tell me that ownership was for 'Kings & C***s' - probably more accurate as my experience would place me very firmly in the latter category!

There are, however, a couple of issues regarding sales which you would do well to beware of :

Fact - Racing is a pyramid scheme in the nicest sense of the term. By that I mean that the format is designed to identify the BEST horse. Although there will be limited scope for a small number of top horses it tends to be a 'winner takes almost all' type system. So if we bred 25 Horse Chestnuts in one year there would not be 25 ecstatic owners as one of those 'Horse Chestnuts' will probably turn out to be the fastest - thereby reducing the other 24 to 'also rans' and 'bridesmaids' in the big, lucrative races.

Fact - The vast majority of expensive horses are expensive failures. I am not aware of a single sales topper from the National Yearling Sale which ended up as the champion of his/her generation. Few, if any, recouped their purchase prices. Furthermore - the quoting of gross earnings by a horse is another distortion of the truth as the owner will be lucky to pocket more than 80% ( if that ) of gross earnings. ( PS - If you think I am clever then consider this : I own a share in the Cape Yearling Sales topper from 2009 so what do you think my prospects are!!!! )

Fact - There is little or no value to be found at the National Yearling Sale. Small owners are better off at lesser sales which, incidentally, produce a good proportion of top horses at lesser cost to the owner. Again - given that most horses are failures you will do less damage at smaller sales with almost the same results.

But the real killer is this : I have owned horses since 1978 and it is the 'cost of keep' which is making it increasingly unattractive to own horses. Working from my own records I can tell you the following : Expenses have tended to rise at a steady 9% - 10% each year whilst earning potential has risen - if you are lucky - by about 6% pa. This means that keeping horses is about 128% more expensive in real terms ( 32 x 4% ) than it was when I started. (Forget about the inflationary effect on the purchasing power of money because I have been fortunate to see my income keep pace). But I do lose money 128% faster than I did with my first horses.

Quite a number of controllable issues contribute to this : A number of items which used to be 'part and parcel' of the overall training fee are now add ons : eg Teeth, Vitamins, Gallops etc. Jockeys have arbitrarily increased their takeout. Trainers take additional percentages of the takeout but have not yet added their green fees to my account. There is little or no control at trainer level over veterinary services rendered. Etc., etc..........

So if you want to get involved in an expensive hobby with very little prospect of a financial return racing will do it for you.

Having said that - I have shares in three horses at present with another potentially in the offing. So how clever am I ? Obviously not very.

All valid points Garrick and I have only made the mistake of buying at the Nationals once (and that was a R50 000 cheapie that at least won twice) - but I have 21 photos on my wall of winners - and I have been lucky enough to be well in front (for now at least() - even taking the 'cost of keep' into account.

I thnk you make an important point stating that 'giving that most horses are failures you will do less damage at the smaller sales'

Garrick

I think you are being just a little harsh with regards the price-ability relationship when pursuing racehorses. While you are right that the 'topper' probably won't be the ability topper, sometimes good horses do cost a bit. For eg, many people spotted Dynasty at the sales as a possible good horse and the 450K paid for him was expensive at the time. I believe 1 million pounds was declined for him when the exchange rate hit 20:1. Pocket Power stood out like a sore thump at CT and was the sales topper there at about 180K (these prices from memory) by then first season sire Jet Master. Jay Peg was an expensive R130K for first season sire Camden Park.

The nature of auctions is that at the top ended bidders can get caught up and at the bottom sellers get slaughtered. I can't really say there is a happy medium when your head is in the oven and your feet in the freezer.

If you have a budget, you are more likely to find a nice horse from a bunch of 10 that cost 100k than from 10 who each cost 20K, after all the price represents a combination of who they are by, what the dam's have produced before and what they look like, Sometime the price also represents a mad valuation by 2 people, or the seller and the eventual buyer, or a trainer spending someone else's money.

The National Sales tries to represent the best of the stallions and the best producing mares (or best performed mares before they have proven themselves as producers). HOW people interpret a catalogue page is where some prices go wrong. The catalogue gives you a clue of how things might go, but the half brother/sister to this or that gives you NO guarentees, yet people bid as if there are.

Looking at the sales topper shows you only what one person was prepared to pay more than one other. Both might be nuts, or rich, and only one will be remorseful.

Jack Dash,

Yes off course you are more likely to find a decent horse from a bunch of 10 that cost 100k than to find one from a bunch that cost 20k -the question should be if you are 5 times more likely to find a decent horse from a bunch of 10 that cost 100k than to find one from a buch that cost 20k. Also, I believe that the 'likelyhood' also diminishes when extending upwards; in other words even if one is 5 times more likely to find a decent horse from a bunch of 10 that cost 100k than to find one from a bunch of 10 that cost 20k, one is probably only twice (or 3 times) rmore likely to find a decent one in a a bunch of 10 that cost 500k as opposed to finding one in a bunch of 10 that cost 100k - if you get my drift.

Just to mention that both Pocket Power and Jay Peg actually came off the Cape sale if I'm not mistaken - but I suppose the point still holds that they were relatively expensive yearlings (although certainly not 'in Wonder Lawn's category)

Still, good luck to the people chasing the big one - as you say, another Dynasty may well be hiding somewhere in the NYS catalogue.

Good thread guys, well if I had 500k to spare

Would I buy one horse for half a million or 5 horses at 100k each?

Neither would go for a drink and be as happy as hell -D

Final answer:

Would probably buy 4 at 100k and still have a good drink

for me it all boils down to what you can afford. If you can afford the top end then that is more than likely where you will be looking. Middle for middle and bottom for bottom, unless you syndicate in which case you can move up.

Also for me (and this only for me) you should buy where you can afford and where you can relatively expect a return or the possibility of a return

We all know racing is hard and being an owner is not for the weak of will but you cannot tell me owners are not there to at least try to make some money or find a champion (these two factors go hand in hand)

Spend what you can afford to lose (both purchase price as well as upkeep) and never stop trying to find a champion!

All the best with your purchases at the NYS. Hope you guys find some good 'uns!!!