Some observations - Greyville

Interesting to note that only one favourite won last night, and that was in the last race.....guess a carryover would have been too risky

What is also more interesting, is that where a jockey has lost on a favourite, he has either won a previous race, or wins one or more of the subsequent races on a non favourite.

Make of it what you want.

To me this does not appear above board - smacks of either favourite/betting manipulation, or, jockey collusion ???.

Perhaps, I need to switch from scrutinizing horses form to Jockey & betting study.

Some observations

Race 1 – Fortune on favourite (unplaced) – Race won by Danielson (R24.10 win)

Race 2 – Marcus on favourite (unplaced) – Race won by Domeyer (32.00 win)

Race 3 – Fortune on favourite (unplaced) – Race won by Forbes. (R8.10 win)

Race 4 – Jordaan on favourite (runs 3rd) – Race won by Fortune. (R8.60 win)

Race 5 – Forbes on favourite (unplaced) – Race won by Danielson. (R7.30)

Race 6 – Delpech on favourite (2nd) – Race won Jordaan. (R6.60)

Race 7 – Fortune on favourite(2nd) – Race won by Jordaan. (R13.60 win)

Race 8 – Fayd’herbe on favourite(unplaced) – Race won by Randolph. (R7.10)

Race 9 – Fayd’herbe on favourite – wins (R4.20)


What hope has the bread and butter punter have of catching the big payout pick six.....this is like trying to catch the lotto.

Might as well just have a new poster for punters "We need your money and support, to make racing a success, but don't go fooling yourself, into believing that you are going to get much of it back"

Morning Observer thanks for your views but "its racing" we have good days and bad days.

The lotto is 13.9 Million/1

I dont play exotics but if you are going to try and win a "big one" on the pick6, suggest play with a syndicate and have a big perm

Or move to sports betting, but bad for the blood pressure, can you imagine having the Bulls to win half-time/full time to pay for the afternoon racing

-D

Cant find the post but sure a few punters had a good bet on Tropical Empire, well done Jason and well promoted on home page!

Saturday's Scoop6 could reach magic £1m mark

SATURDAY'S Scoop6 could hit the magic million pounds mark after almost £750,000 rolled over in both the win and bonus funds last weekend.


There is a total of £510,908 in the win fund, while the bonus pot has swelled to £218,960.

Punters will have to find the winners of six races from Haydock, Ascot and Lingfield if they are to land a mammoth payout.

"The Scoop6 could well hit the million mark this weekend and should appeal to fans of both codes as Lingfield, Ascot and Haydock host the very best in Group and summer jumping action," Totepool spokesman George Primarolo said on Friday.

Morning Observer, I think it's more a case of "pricing up wrong" and the masses following so-called good things. I thought Orbison, Amber Ice and Tropical Empire were all "over priced" and not surprising at all.

The first two races, to price those favourites up that short when most of them are going distance the first time is ridiculous, problem is a large percentage of the punting market follow the betting blindly.

Just my opinion ....

I know of someone who got 16% of last weeks Jhb p6 R1.2 million payout for R288( I think I was only out 4 legs),so it is possible,but luck and perm construction are critical.

scotia Wrote:

---

> Cant find the post but sure a few punters had a
> good bet on Tropical Empire, well done Jason and
> well promoted on home page!


Tropical Empire was a blinder. Structure of P6 is most important. I went for the kill yesterday (as most regular posters would know).
I bankered Antonio Fraser and Tropical Empire in a full unit bet. If only Antonio beat Amber Ice. I still can not get over it.

First, the calibre of jockey who regularly rides favourites will be the calibre of jockey who is likely to win races regularly. Second, don't over emphasise the significance of the betting. Being favourite means very little per se. If we all like the same horse in every race the game would die instantly. My PA banker in PE on Friday was a 12/1 shot that won, for instance.

big perms with a lot of buddies works.....

Or ex-buddies ()

sorry, but thats bullshit. especially on this day nearly all winners were absolutely logically. "favourite" is not allways the best horse

Good observation Observer. Now back all the beaten favourites in their next run ?
Observe ?