VaalPick6

Modest bunch of runners and races today. My banker is the scratching in Race 6 giving me the favorite Breeze on By and the 3 Blitz.

This is my pick 6 for today based on the odds and some longer shot preferences which gives us the O leg that we need for a decent payout. (See attachment for color coded display).


1 4,2,3,5x 7scr,14scr,6,12x 13scrx 3,6,9,1x 4,6,9,7x 1,2,3 R76.8
2 4,2,3,5x 7scr,14scr,6,12x 13scrx 3,6,9,1x 3,10,11,12,5x 1,2,3 R96
3 4,2,3,5x 7scr,14scr,6,12x 13scrx 8,11,5,10x 4,6,9,7x 1,2,3 R76.8
4 4,2,3,5x 3,10,11x 13scrx 3,6,9,1x 4,6,9,7x 1,2,3 R57.6
5 1,9,10x 7scr,14scr,6,12x 13scrx 3,6,9,1x 4,6,9,7x 1,2,3 R57.6
6 1,9,10x 3,10,11x 13scrx 3,6,9,1x 4,6,9,7x 1,2,3 R43.2
7 1,9,10x 7scr,14scr,6,12x 13scrx 8,11,5,10x 4,6,9,7x 1,2,3 R57.6
8 1,9,10x 7scr,14scr,6,12x 13scrx 3,6,9,1x 3,10,11,12,5x 1,2,3 R72
9 4,2,3,5x 3,10,11x 13scrx 8,11,5,10x 4,6,9,7x 1,2,3 R57.6
10 4,2,3,5x 3,10,11x 13scrx 3,6,9,1x 3,10,11,12,5x 1,2,3 R72
11 4,2,3,5 7scr,14scr,6,12 13scr 8,11,5,10 3,10,11,12,5 1,2,3 R96
10%=R 763

I would play with caution today. In my terms using the spreadsheets and software that I do, R763 for 10% is an indicator that it is not an easy card.

Attached files AfricanClanVaalPick6.xls (18.5 KB)Â

Personal opinion is that the Breeze on By scrathing race banker is a trap LJ ...it just seems too easy and a big opportunity for everyone to go out. I woudl rather do some perms with one of the following bankers as well:

1) LJ Erasmus 4/11 in the 1st leg
2) Alexander (5 coupling) in the 2nd leg

Regards,

Loopy

You may very well be right about that!

The one positive was the pattern OBFBOF=FFBBOO 2 outsiders, two mid-priced, two long shots, one of which was a dog in the first leg. It is one of the pick 6 patterns I spoke about in my post yesterday that results in a carryforward or close to it. This pattern appears in the color coded boxes of the pick 6 that I uploaded. I just hadn't filled the blue boxes with a sufficient number of outsiders! But that is racing for you. Hindsight is perfect 2020 vision as the saying goes. We take it on the chin like men, tomorrow is another day.

The last time I encountered a dog like this in the first leg of a pick 6 with a big result was at Greyville 21st this year when I tipped the R350k pick 6. Ask LoopyLogic; he'll tell you - I emailed him the multiple tickets Sunday 21st Feb at 11h45 - a day after my mother's birthday party, stuffed full of cake and all the good stuff that comes with having a party!

I played a small jackpot with all the runners split into 5 tickets except for my banker the scratching 13 and recouped my pick outlay.

My winning jackpot ticket looked like so:

Leg 1: 6,7,12,14 (FB)
Leg 2: 13scr (F)
Leg 3: 1,3,6,8 (FB)
Leg 4: 1,2,3,5,7,8,10,11 (O) for R128

so not an entirely disappointing day in the end. The jackpot is a good cover for the pick 6 and I have a series of posts I will do about the jackpot in the future and some excel sheets that will help construct effective low cost tickets with high end payouts.

I always say, picking the winners is the easy part-holding a winning ticket is another matter all together. Get the underlying structure/blueprint right and let the chips fall as they may and you always stand a chance of being in the running for something.

I only make use of one pattern, now i know where i'm going wrong!

2cents Wrote:

---

> I only make use of one pattern, now i know where
> i'm going wrong!


Good win on your PA today Daryll. Well Done

Thanks East. My mood has been a bit low recently.

Well done 2cents - it was a nice PA to catch (I unfortunately went out in the 2nd last leg with Royal Terrace only managing a dirty 4th)