Pick 6 odds calculator

I have a pick 6 odds calculator which tells you in advance what the odds of your perm is like so:

0.8 (first 3 in betting) x 0.3 (favorite) x 0.8 (first 3 in the betting) x 0.9 (first 8 in the betting x 0.8 (first 3 in the betting) x 0.3 (banker favorite)= 0.041472 = 4.15% chance = 24-1 chance pretty much long shot territory and one of the reasons why multiple tickets work better in that you can spread your odds over several tickets favoring some over others.

Then you must still work out if this ticket is worth playing because the only leg where you allow for an upset is the 0.9 (first 8 in the betting) leg. What will the pick 6 pay out if no outsider wins.? Figure that out in advance (approximately) rather than load your tickets with mainly favorites and hope for a big payout. It's not going to happen because everybody else has those same horses.

You need to add some value somewhere by adding runners that the public shouldn't like odds wise but that you reckon has a chance.

If anyone wants me to calculate the odds of their perm just email me and I will post it.

Interesting post.

Another trend that I have noticed over the years is that Pick 6 carryovers are often ( perhaps usually ) followed by one where mostly favourites arrive. So I have never been able to understand why everyone gets so excited by a carryover..........

i laugh you make good joke

ha ha ha

me i have calculator work out how chance of waste time on Tote bets when system is flawed.

TAB marginal at the Moment

Big P shares a big red sell.

results are expected to be crap unless they sell somtheing

How many people have won a pick 6 in the last 12 months and how much did it pay?

i caught 7 % of 2400 so about 195 rand spend 64 ran so 3/1 . i was proud

[code:tunvagel]

Pick six winnings last 10 months:

10 Sep Vaal R2 400
1st Oct 2009 Vaal R2000
3rd Oct 2009 Turff R330
5th Oct FPark R997
9th Oct Arlington R300
21st Oct DurbVlle R1 475
27th Dec Turff R3 244
23rd Jan Ken R 300
21st March Turff R360

[/code:tunvagel]

and a few other small ones last two months. I play very small percentages. My stakes were below R150 sometimes only R50. I also won several jackpots, the best being a R770x3 at Turffontein for R2200 ( I spent under a R100) the same day I won the pick 6 on the 27th December.

Last few months took a bit of a break writing the pick 6 book " Winning Pick 6 Strategies "

My philosophy is if you don't have the bankroll or the time stay away from the pick 6 and rather play the P.A. if you must have an interest in the day's racing. A perm is very useful for the P.A. but not the pick 6. Here is how I structure my P.A. when I do play them. Usually difficult PA venues like Fairview or Arlington

[code:tunvagel]F x FB x FB x FB x FBO x FBO x F (F=favorite, B= 2nd and 3rd favorite, O= a few runners 10-1 and above that I fancy)[/code:tunvagel]

around 8 permed tickets with a few roughies included for about R50.

Back to the pick 6.

Think about it. Racing is about the odds you get for the chances you take. If I back a 10-1 shot that means I will lose that bet 9/10 times. Then why do punters complain when the odds of their pick 6 ticket is 50-1 and they lose it?

Just look at the astronomical odds in a pick 6 field with 10 runners each=

10x10x10x10x10x10= 1 000 000 different combinations
10x10x10x10 for the jackpot = 10 000 different combinations which means the pick 6 is 10x more difficult to win than the jackpot.

So if you have the favorite (1-1), the second favorite (say 2-1) and the third favorite (say 3-1) in the first leg then you have covered the following odds for that leg:

50%(100/2) + 33.3%(100/3) + 25%(100/4) = 88.3% which means you have an 88.3% chance of getting through the first leg only. Now add up the % chances for all the runners you have in each leg and multiply them by each other to give you the % chance you have of winning the pick 6 purely based on the odds of your runners. Look at the example I gave above and you see 24-1 which is longshot territory. That means 24/25 races you will LOSE the pick 6.

It happens so often that myths have developed around the pick 6. Like cheating and horses being pulled and the jockeys being told that a carryforward is need for Saturday's meeting. Even if that were true you can't control that but you can control what your pick 6 looks like.

What do I mean by that?

A pick 6 has the following characteristics and not a single pick 6 anywhere in the world deviates form this format. A mixture of:

1. Favorites let's call them F
2. Mid-priced runners as in second favorites, third favorites, other fancied runners let's call them B
3. Outsiders 10-1 and above let's call them O

So what would pick 6es look like?

FFFFFF six favorites winning, happens rarely and pays peanuts. I don't want this pick 6
FFFFFB 5 favorites winning, one mid-priced happens rarely and pays peanuts. I don't want this pick 6
etc etc until we get to the sweet spot of most decent paying pick 6es:

FFBBBO 2 favorites, 3 mid-priced runners, 1 dog (my kinda pick 6 happens often enough and pays decently)
FFBBOO 2 favorites, 2 mid-priced runners, 2 dogs (my kinda pick 6 happens often enough and pays well)
FBBBOO 1 favorite, 2 mid-priced runners, 2 dogs (my kinda pick 6, doesn't happen as often as the other two but usually pays bombs or is a carryforward)

Why do I like 2 favorites? Simple. How often do favorites win worldwide? Around 33% of the time. What is 33% of 6 legs in a pick six? Two. There you go. 2/6 legs are usually won by the favorite. Now I just have to take care of the other 4 legs. This is where multiple tickets come into play. In advance BEFORE you even play the pick 6 you have ticket designs that are pick 6 traps. Why traps? Because they look like pick 6es in design and format. They mimic the look and feel of the pick 6. Now you slot your runners into the slots of these designs. Too many runners and the cost may be too expensive, too few and you diminish your chances of winning too much. Remember you are up against about 1.0 million possible combinations each and every time you play the pick 6. Always keep that in mind.

To reduce the odds in my favor I usually only play the pick 6 when I have a banker and possibly even a double/treble banker in another leg. Why? Because of the number of combinations. What do I mean? Look see:

Banker x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 100 000 vs 1 000 000 (by using a banker I have reduced the combinations by 90%!!) And two bankers?

Banker x Banker x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 10 000 vs 1 000 000 (by using two bankers I have reduced the combinations by an astonishing 99%) THAT is how powerful a banker is. So usually before I decide to play a pick 6 I MUST have or find a banker. NO banker no play for me. And usually a double/treble elsewhere. What do I mean? Like so:

Banker x 1,2,3 x 10 runners x 10 runners x 10 runners x 10 runners

But that's just the broad format. Not the actual format. What do I mean? I mean like so:

Banker x 1,2,3 x FBO x FBO x FBO x FBO


If my banker folds it's race over for me for the day. And I don't mean the banker has to be in the first leg. The percentage of favorites winning in a maiden is higher than in any other race so usually I have a banker or 2-3 runners in maiden races.

That should be around 18 tickets. And I allow for two dog legs. Which means my tickets can absorb a shock result twice. No problems there. So if racing is crooked go ahead and crook two races. My tickets can handle it. That is what I mean by myths. When something doesn't make sense in racing we develop rationalisations and myths as to why it is happening. Quite frankly I don't care. What do pick 6es look like? And what do my ticket constructions look like? That is all I care about. And I am patient because the odds (1.0 mill combinations remember?) are very high.

It's like fishing. You design a hook and bait that will attract the fish you are trying to catch. Once you get that right you cast your line and you wait. Maybe today, maybe tomorrow. Maybe next week. As long as your stakes are affordable and you know the odds of the game you are playing.

And yes we all need a good dose of luck to go with our smart designs. This game is as much art as it is science. Especially when I see the lady at the movie house catching long shot swingers regularly. She play her favorite numbers? No. She takes the favorite with a few longshot horses everytime. That I call smart playing. Like the way we are designing our pick 6es.

Do I win all the time? No and no and no again. Do I come close? You don't want to know how often. More often than ever before because of the designs. Living next door to Alice so to say. Not a block away. I'm always in the hunt.

Do I win? Often enough in the most difficult bet in racing to convince me I am doing something right.

Dave, I've been targetting carryovers for the last 8 months or so.

For Pick 6's, I've caught 8 out of 25 with my best being a share of the R330k at Kenilworth on 19 December.
That win has thrown my ROI into orbit but the good thing is that I'd still be running at better than 50% if I hadn't caught it.
It's just a pity I'm playing with small stakes.