Topic of the day " Merit Ratings"

What is Merit Handicapping?

As the name suggests, handicapping on merit means that a horse’s allocated weight in a race will have been earned by the measurement of his previous performances. This means that the revealed ability of the animal is the primary basis for determining his handicap rating.


If we take a human example
Assume Man A runs against Man B over a distance of 100 metres.
Both have a good start and Man A beats B by 10m.
Next B runs against Man C and wins by 10m.
So when A and C line up the result should be predictable:
On available evidence A should beat C by 20m, all other things being equal.
A beats B by 10 metres.
B beats C by 10 metres.
A meets C - Result:
A beats C by 2 metres,
Now if A carries some weight and races against B - there is a dead heat.
To get the same result when A meets C it requires A to carry twice the weight.
Merit Theory
If A beats B by 10M,and B beats C by 5M
then what would the Hcp be ?
If it is known that 5KG stops the average runner by 5 M
then on "MERIT" the weight in a handicap would
look something like this:

A carries 15kg
B carries 5 kg
C carries Nothing

Predicting the win is not STRAIGHTFORWARD
the runners are now COMPETITIVE!!!

Variables
To complicate the example further the distance can be increased from
100 to 400 metres.
“A” will have a problem: the weight on his back will slow him down more and more the further he runs. So to achieve the same result as over 100 metres
the weight on his back will have to be reduced.
But what if “B” and “C” are much better suited to 400m than to lOOm, and “A”
cannot run that far at all? In other words a change of distance could create circumstances for which historical information related to the old distance
cannot be used.
And so with horses. Some are better suited to certain distances than
others. Some carry weight better, because of age or build. Some cope
better when the ground is soft, others only when it is hard. Add to these
other factors such as the horse’s well being, fitness, race tactics, jockeyship, pace etc. present the complexities faced by the handicapper.

Merit Handicapping involves rating adjustments based on FACTS as well as JUDGEMENTS.

Facts include:
The actual weight differences between the horses.
The actual margins between horses at the end of a race.
The drag effect of weight over different racing distances
Judgements include :
Did he get a fair start?
Did he have to race wide?
Was the pace of the race true or false?
Was the horse impeded during the race?
How did the horse act in the going?
Was the horse racing over a suitable distance?
Was a large margin of victory truly representative of his
superiority?

Hibs I must say excellent. Well explained in a way anyone can understand. (tu)

Hibs for Senior handicapper!

This has always been a subject I don't understand -
IMO when Usain Bolt runs the 200m his ability to consistently win races gets applauded by everyone, he doesn't get penaliised to run the next race with a "sack of potatoes on his back" just because he won the previous race by 10m. Why do horses then get penalised, should they not all carry equal weights? Won't the best horse win? You still have the draw, jockey's ability, etc to deal with.

My question then, do horses get handicapped to ensure the existance of bookmakers or why? Can the handicapper make a mistake? Hope I don't sound stupid. Please ignore if this does not make sense.

The Hcp do make mistakes Hildago,this is why many members on here do their own hcp and pricing..

Hibs thanks a mil, well explained !! Much appreciated.

Callatus Wrote:

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> Hibs thanks a mil, well explained !! Much
> appreciated.


copy and paste

If you like to look at MR's, also have a look at the sporting posts own ability ratings, they can also be quite usefull.

hibernia Wrote:

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> Callatus Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Hibs thanks a mil, well explained !! Much
> > appreciated.
>
>
> copy and paste


Well you copied and pasted brilliantly.

Hidalgo Wrote:

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> This has always been a subject I don't understand
> -
> IMO when Usain Bolt runs the 200m his ability to
> consistently win races gets applauded by everyone,
> he doesn't get penaliised to run the next race
> with a "sack of potatoes on his back" just because
> he won the previous race by 10m. Why do horses
> then get penalised, should they not all carry
> equal weights? Won't the best horse win? You still
> have the draw, jockey's ability, etc to deal
> with.
>
> My question then, do horses get handicapped to
> ensure the existance of bookmakers or why? Can the
> handicapper make a mistake? Hope I don't sound
> stupid. Please ignore if this does not make sense.


cos..actually...it might be a pleasant surprise to the authorites that be....thats its not the merit rating system...nor their biased or unbiased assessments that are needed for races to become competitive....but actually inconsistant runs by horses and just natural conditions that determine results....i think in minor centers merit rating is a waste of time....cos even when horses are rated...they dont perform to their ability...and it comes back to them being problem horses...i know the purist is having a right royal laugh at this post....but in a merited race...when last have we seen...a 5 way deadheat...what does that tell us...is it really necessary....lets the horse on the day determine the result....not the handicapper...because he is getting it wrong anyway....lets take maiden races...set weights...we still enjoy betting...there is form reversals...without handicapping....its still enjoyable to watch...then what is the need for handicapping

in the olden days it was divisions...i think that was great...we had champions...the barbican..string of victories.....going thru the divisions...even hear the drums....mostly pinnacles led to him recording all those victories...nice to see that...

its obvious to see from handicappers at the moment how wrong they r getting it.....they r handicapping stables rather than horses...where's the sense....they r handicapping reputations rather than ablities...its farsical some of these maidens from de kok stable,lairds stables and the likes being being lumped on.....then the bookie opens them odds on next time....and they run badlyin a merit rated 85 for example...and had the same horse been in a lesser stable..it gets a 75....and wins handsomely next time probably at good odds too...so work it out....witch(left the "h"out intentionally)...who is making making false favourites..the handicapper is also contributing to the problems...and the bookies are loving it

@ Racing Guru

I have to agree with your post, glad to see I'm not the only one feeling this way.(tu)