SUPER 15 - WEEK BY WEEK

CHIEFS (Long Term 28/10) 1/1 vs CRUSADERS (Long Term 3/1) 9/10

It is quite amazing to reflect on just how desperate the Crusaders’ situation now is.

A couple of weeks ago they appeared to be cruising to an almost certain spot in the playoffs; albeit possibly not from a position of comfort at the top of their conference. Now their very survival in the competition is at risk!

The Chiefs, on the other hand, sit cosily at the top of the conference a distant 10 points in front of the Canterbury franchise.

The pressure has built to the extent that the normally amiable Todd Blackadder has spent much of the week muttering darkly about Bryce Lawrence’s refereeing performance last week against the Hurricanes. That sounds familiar! I’ll give him the same response that was offered to South Africa after that famous loss to Australia in the 2011 World Cup eliminator officiated by the same referee : How does a side with 70% of the possession manage to lose a test match? Through indefensibly inept refereeing – that’s how!

Moving on – The Crusaders have big guns Carter, Dagg & Read back. They’ll need them as they are likely to find the Chiefs pack an altogether different proposition to the powderpuff eight that they encountered (and lost to!) a week ago.

Although on paper the Crusaders appear to tick all the boxes something is clearly amiss when a side boasting All Blacks in almost every position manages to drop 5 (or nearly one third of their campaign) matches in a season. My take on this issue is twofold : I believe both Carter & McCaw are entering the twilight of their careers and secondly I don’t believe their coach is up to it in the final analysis.

Blackadder is now in his 4th successive season with the cream of NZ talent and has yet to win anything.

The Crusaders find themselves up against former NZ national coach Wayne Smith who so far this season appears to have comfortably worked out most of his opposition.

This match should be a cracker although I wonder whether the Chiefs will have the necessary commitment needed to put away their more illustrious opponents knowing that a loss is something they can probably afford other than for psychological reasons.

If you fancy the Chiefs then 1/1 makes the odds on offer about Jackson ( who has no less than 19 competitors and an awful draw to beat ) in the July appear like one of the better acts of betting fraud around at the moment. Alternatively the long term 28/10 on offer about the Chiefs seems inordinately generous given that their qualification is hardly in doubt!

This is not an easy match to call and it is tempting to sit on one’s hands and simply watch and enjoy. But it might be a good idea to take the form at its face value and back the Chiefs to register a double against the Crusaders in 2012.



REDS (Long Term 12/1) 2/7 vs HIGHLANDERS (Out) 28/10

The Reds are part of the foursome comprising themselves, the Bulls, Crusaders & Sharks battling for positions 5 & 6 in the playoffs.

Recent form has been encouraging.

Sadly the Highlanders challenge died a week ago. I have made no secret of the fact that I have thoroughly enjoyed their contribution to Super Rugby this season. A large number of the really entertaining clashes featured their participation.

Given their ‘never say die’ attitude I expect them to make a nuisance of themselves yet again. They have all the necessary personnel to win this game and could benefit from the fact that the Reds are likely to bring a fairly brittle level of confidence into this matchup given their need to win.

At 2/7 the Reds are not a betting proposition as I cannot accept that it represents an accurate measure of the difference in skill and effectiveness between the two sides.

I’ll be pulling for the Highlanders but take the Reds to win it. Just.


SHARKS (Long Term 25/1) 8/10 vs BULLS (Long Term 7/1) 11/10

At the very least this is the second best matchup of the weekend.

The Sharks come off a four week break. Their internationals would probably have relished last week’s rest after the June internationals and should come into this encounter refreshed and breathing fire.

Lined up against them is a Bulls side looking equally ominous.

What may be tipping the scales in favour of the visitors is the late loss of both Lambie & Alberts by the Sharks.

I take the Bulls to win this one with a reasonable degree of confidence and rate this the best bet of the weekend.


BLUES (Out) 1/12 vs FORCE (Out) 8/1

A dead rubber contested by two disappointing teams.

I lean towards the Blues.



WARATAHS (Out) 1/1 vs BRUMBIES (Long Term 10/1) 9/10

Australian franchises appear able to keep the ‘needle’ going irrespective as to their relative log positions.

There is not an awful lot to choose between these two sides despite their huge log position differences. The Waratahs have lost 10 whilst the Brumbies have dropped 5 during their campaign.

I am giving the nod to the Waratahs based on their home ground advantage allied to the fact that they are putting out one of the strongest combinations they have been able to field this season.


CHEETAHS (Out) 5/2 vs STORMERS (Long Term 5/2) 1/3

Stormers supporters must be apprehensive about this match. The visitors – although better served by returning players than they were last week – are still nowhere near the lineup they would like to be able to field in the playoffs.

Expect the Stormers to try and grind out another workmanlike win in Bloemfontein.

One wonders how the Cheetahs will approach this game. They have nothing to lose or gain other than to disrupt the Stormers’ march towards the playoffs. Possibly they might gain some satisfaction and/or help the cause of the Bulls by overturning the Cape side.

More importantly – do they have the resources, discipline and mental fortitude to tough out a close encounter with the conference leaders?

More often than not the Cheetahs have slipped far behind in the first 50 odd minutes and then staged late, sometimes spectacular, comebacks.

The way to beat the Stormers is painfully simple – Get more than two scores in front of them early and make THEM chase the game.

The Stormers are not priced as a betting proposition for this match and are now also unappealing as potential outright winners at 5/2 . It’s your call.


LIONS (Out) 2/7 vs REBELS (Out) 28/10

This match could go either way although ‘first hit out in South Africa at altitude’ is often reasonable justification for punting the home side.

Regrettably this theory may not have served you very well if you have followed the Lions this season!

If you have punted the winner of the July you may well feel confident enough to back the Lions. If you have blown your tom on the nags you may just be forced by budgetary restrictions to try and get out of it on the Rebels!

Txs Garrick a good read as always go the Bulls

Is it draw time???

CHIEFS vs CRUSADERS

What a game! Possibly the most exciting clash of the Super 15 so far.

The records will show that the Crusaders won this encounter by 28-21 but controversy regarding the officiating will rage for a lot longer.

Firstly – If Bryce Lawrence is retained on the panel for 2013 then there needs to be an enquiry. Despite being consigned to the TMO box he incorrectly managed to award a crucial try to the Crusaders ( payback for last week, perhaps? ) when no momentum nor immediate placing of the ball was in any way evident. And this man is NZ Referee Of The Year! That’s frightening; particularly as the official has time to consider his decision and examine footage.

Referee Steve Walsh then lost the plot completely in both his policing of the scrums as well as the last desperate minutes of the game.

Despite awarding a succession of penalties to the attacking Chiefs he not once even cautioned the Crusaders let alone brandished a yellow card; which surely should have been produced following serial transgressions. The Chiefs must have started wondering whether McCaw played for them; so often was he on their side of the ruck and breakdown.

Nevertheless – a pulsating match!


REDS vs HIGHLANDERS

Following hard on the heels of the Crusaders/Chiefs match this event was almost pedestrian by comparison........until the last 20 odd minutes.

The Highlanders then suddenly came to life and threatened to snuff out the Reds’ hopes of reaching the playoffs.

Had the Highlanders adopted a slightly less frantic and somewhat undisciplined approach from the get go they probably would have won this match at the very least. But they foolishly refused three successive kickable early penalties and then failed to score from the resulting tap kicks. And in doing so set the tone for much of the balance of the match.

So the Reds progress and the Highlanders become the first side to officially complete their season ( as they have a bye next week ).


SHARKS vs BULLS

The Sharks reproduced a similar effort to that which they conjured up against the Stormers a few weeks ago to totally bully the Bulls off the park.

In doing so they shattered the Bulls cohesion and had the visitors on the back foot and usually a metre off the pace for almost the entire match.

On this effort they would be worthy playoff qualifiers although they seldom seem able to replicate this intensity for successive weeks.

Once again the Bulls offered no Plan B when challenged at their strengths. This performance raises concerns at their ability to front the better sides and bring the necessary X factor to the crucial playoff games.


BLUES vs FORCE

Blues comfortably beat an insipid Force side to record only their third win of the season.

Both sides provided plenty of evidence as to why they are rooted to the bottom of the table.


WARATAHS vs BRUMBIES

It is hard to believe that the Brumbies represent the cream of the Australian crop on this display. They look unlikely to trouble any of the other qualifiers in the playoffs and I am sure that other coaches will be hoping to draw them as their early opponents.

The Waratahs – as they have done all season – conceded yet another match they could easily of won.


CHEETAHS vs STORMERS

Another borefest.

I suppose they will all point to the weather as an excuse.

On present form it would be a tragedy for Rugby Union if this side were to win the competition.


LIONS vs REBELS

The Lions did everything in their power to throw away a massive lead and lose against a side best described as a bunch of largely aged mercenaries.

In the end they won but who will miss them if they are relegated next season?

Round 18 and Super Rugby reaches the end of the round robin phase. It’s been a long, physically demanding road. Total injuries to all teams would probably allow fantasy league players to construct close to 4 full teams from players who have succumbed to the demands of the tournament.

But it’s still far from over.

HURRICANES (Long Term 80/1) 16/10 vs CHIEFS (Long Term 3/1) 11/20

These two sides have totally differing objectives.

The Chiefs need to win; preferably with a bonus point to ward off a possible table topping challenge from the Stormers on Saturday.

The Hurricanes need to win; preferably with a bonus point and then are still not assured of a place in the playoffs.

This should be a cracking match as neither side really has any option other than to attack if they wish to achieve their objectives.

The Chiefs can feel relatively unlucky not to have forced a draw against the Crusaders last weekend; which puts the relative strength of their side into perspective. On the other hand the Hurricanes actually beat the Crusaders ( albeit in controversial circumstances ) to stake their claim.

The Hurricanes have home ground advantage and the return of Jane and Vito to bolster their playing strength. The Chiefs have their captain back to (hopefully) re-organise the shambolic lineout performance they produced against the Crusaders.

Despite the yawning chasm in the long term betting there may not be very much between the two sides when they meet although, on past performance, the Chiefs may j-u-s-t be able to dominate in the tight five.

I’m leaning towards the Chief without any confidence but believe that both sides will fail in their quest for 4 try bonus points.


BRUMBIES (Long Term 12/1) 7/20 vs BLUES (Out) 5/2

Last week the Blues showed a semblance of structure and intent in the second half of their match against the Force and eventually cantered home by a wide margin.

This week they meet a Brumbies team on track to top the Australian conference.

It must be conceded that the Force is a pretty poor side whereas the Brumbies are far better structured but possibly not overly blessed with ability. And certainly very beatable as their season record suggests.

I’m going to risk ridicule and select the Blues to continue improving and register only their 4th win of the season against a side that will be nervously looking over its shoulder.


CRUSADERS (Long Term 22/10) 1/50 vs WESTERN FORCE (Out) 20/1

Everything points to a bloodbath in Christchurch.

It’s probably not worth mentioning that the Force have often provided stiffer opposition to the Crusaders than expected; particularly when at home.

No optimism appears likely to help in this instance and 1/50 is probably, for a change, an accurate measure of the likely outcome.


REDS (Long Term 25/1) 3/10 vs WARATAHS (Out) 28/10

I am still trying to figure out how the Waratahs have fared so poorly this season. They have certainly lost a number of games they should have won. Last week was a typical example.

I have no doubt that nothing would end their season on a better note than to put one over the Reds.

Whether they can show the mental fortitude that has been sadly lacking all season is a moot point.

It’s a derby. So it will probably be close. There will be needle and possibly a few scuffles. The Reds will know what is required when they take the field. If the Brumbies flop against the Blues this matchup will suddenly take on an entirely different relevance.

Reds by a little.


STORMERS (Long Term 22/10) 1/20 vs REBELS (Out) 12/1

The Stormers may still be in contention for Combined Conference Winner when they run out for this match.

If that is the case and they fail to secure a 4 try bonus then they can all hang their heads in shame. In fact- irrespective as to whether it is a priority or not - they should be able to put 4 past the Rebels.

And that would be a first for the season.

Weather could be a party pooper.


SHARKS (Long Term 14/1) 1/7 vs CHEETAHS (Out) 5/1

The Sharks will be hoping that the Cheetahs have, by now, lost interest in the competition and merely provide token resistance over the 80 minutes.

Sharks fans will be praying that the home side does not turn up with the same mental attitude that failed so dismally against the Lions a few weeks ago.

All things considered the Sharks should win this one. And if they reproduce their effort of last week it will also be with a bonus point.


BULLS (Long Term 10/1) 1/14 vs LIONS (Out) 8/1

Expect the Lions to make a nuisance of themselves for portions of this game.

Expect the Bulls to win it.

Expect the Bulls to take the full points on offer. Or maybe not if the Sharks have pocketed 5 against the Cheetahs in Durban! There’s plenty scope for skullduggery in this part of the table!

hi all, trying to get a few perspectives on the weekend's games. is everyone generally leaving the last three games alone from a betting standpoint (stormers/bulls/sharks) until the Reds game is finished?

And does noone else think that the Crusaders might take it easy on the force, seeing as theyll have three tough games to come, and will want to keep their energy as high as possible?

Cheers

In the Crusaders / Chiefs game last weekend when the Saders got their dubious try Welsh was playing penalty advantage to the Saders so even if the try was disallowed they would still have won by 3 points as the penalty was straight in front. It could have changed the momentum of the games. I would love to see both Welsh and Lawrence (don't think he will be NZ ref of the year this year) both removed off the Super Rugby Panel.

We should see some great running Rugby matches this weekend as so many of them are chasing 4 tries and other than game 1 the home sides are all chasing Top 6 spots against weaker opposition without chance of qualifying. Strangly if the Sharks score 4 tries and Reds and Canes don't you might see the Bulls in the last game going for plenty of shots at goal and not want to score more than 3 tries as then the can play the Brumbies instead of the Crusaders. Could be an interesting finish.

shrek Wrote:

---

> In the Crusaders / Chiefs game last weekend when
> the Saders got their dubious try Welsh was playing
> penalty advantage to the Saders so even if the try
> was disallowed they would still have won by 3
> points as the penalty was straight in front. It
> could have changed the momentum of the games. I
> would love to see both Welsh and Lawrence (don't
> think he will be NZ ref of the year this year)
> both removed off the Super Rugby Panel.
>
> We should see some great running Rugby matches
> this weekend as so many of them are chasing 4
> tries and other than game 1 the home sides are all
> chasing Top 6 spots against weaker opposition
> without chance of qualifying. Strangly if the
> Sharks score 4 tries and Reds and Canes don't you
> might see the Bulls in the last game going for
> plenty of shots at goal and not want to score more
> than 3 tries as then the can play the Brumbies
> instead of the Crusaders. Could be an interesting
> finish.

Agreed on the last game for sure Shrek. Will be watching the day fold out intently as these things will matter I reckon, and there'll be money to be made.

There's some interesting ive read on who will go fgor what, and ive gone for a win treble reds brumbies and Chiefs, that I got from the site below. I don't agree with a fair bit of what they said, but there's food for thought there anyway. Ive also taken a small handicap acca on reds -9 brumbies -7 and crusaders -25 , as the first two have reason to go after bonus points, and the Crusaders are playing a weakend team, and yes they want to secure the win. If they get ahead, they won thold back in front of their fans surely.

Looking forward to it all anway.

Are we still waiting for the draw??

Thanks again Garrick

HURRICANES vs CHIEFS

We expected a cracker and that’s what we got. The Hurricanes got up with a late try 4 minutes after full time to snatch a last gasp win from the Chiefs. You could probably have heard the cheering from Cape Town.

Regrettably they fell short of the vital 4 try bonus point required to put them into serious playoff contention.

The Chiefs will rue conceding an identically dubious try for the second successive week. In his haste to come to the defence of Bryce Lawrence last week head refereeing honcho Lyndon Bray inadvertently rubber stamped a player being shunted over after falling short of the goal line as a legitimate move without a penaliseable second movement. I’m sure there will be plenty of debate ( and hopefully clarification! ) on this somewhat creative ruling but at least consistency was displayed today.

Biggest winner of all out of the result was the Stormers. They need only produce their normal agricultural effort tomorrow and win to finish top of the combined conference.


BRUMBIES vs BLUES

The Blues continued with their recent improvement and deservedly put the Brumbies to sleep – opening up the opportunity for the Reds to overtake them at the top of the Australian conference.

The final round of Super Rugby continues to develope like a pulp novel.

I really think the Crusaders and Bulls will both win by big margins = 3-1 the double(Cru-25.5 and Bulls -17.5)

Trying to get a bet on 'in play' in the Crusaders game is like farting against the Cape south easter wind.......ai hollyw.....